RenMac

Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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Nov 24, 2023 • 17min

RenMac Off-Script: Yield Dependency

Jeff and Steve discuss Neil’s holiday traditions, the impact of a third-party presidential candidate, why Republicans feel better about their chances to take the Senate, yield dependency, why healthcare might be well- positioned for next year.
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Nov 17, 2023 • 19min

RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Affirmation

RenMac discusses the impact of inflation data on policy, real yields as predictors of nominal rates, Taiwan's significance in Biden-Xi meetings, and Congress avoiding difficult decisions.
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Nov 10, 2023 • 24min

RenMac Off-Script: Losing Control

The podcast discusses the impact of the recent election results on Republicans and Democrats, potential Republican candidates and their stance on foreign policy, the possibility of Nikki Haley running for president, consolidation in the market and the impact of treasury bond auctions, the correlation between medical care and inflation, the decline in bond yields affecting equity markets, and discussions on banking regulations, Biden's meeting with Xi Jinping, government shutdown, technical analysis, and social media connection.
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Nov 3, 2023 • 23min

RenMac Off-Script: Nonlinear Risks

RenMac discusses how the soft payroll print will impact the Fed, how the recent strikes may have impacted the data, why good things happened to housing, the anti-momentum trade heading into yearend, the importance of Nov. 17th to the gov’t shutdown, and Biden-Xi’s APEC meeting, and why Nikki Haley may have a low ceiling in the GOP primary.
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Oct 27, 2023 • 17min

RenMac Off-Script: Fed vs. GDP

RenMac discusses why Gavin Newsom is meeting with Xi Jinping, why “Mike Johnson” is a leading Google search, the momentum behind 3Q GDP, why the Fed is more forecast vs data dependent, how fiscal stimulus is likely to pressure yields, the deteriorating breadth in equities in the face of strong seasonality.
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Oct 20, 2023 • 18min

RenMac Off-Script: Don’t Follow the Easy Path

RenMac discusses Powell’s speech on the outlook, why the Fed is probably done for 2023 but why the economy is not, why builders might be a buy despite elevated rates and why gold is a sell despite high geopolitical tensions, and the latest in Jim Jordan’s ongoing fight to become Speaker of the House.
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Oct 13, 2023 • 22min

RenMac Off-Script: House of Horrors

RenMac discuss the latest political drama around the House Speakership race, the prospect of an acting Speaker working with Democrats, why the upside surprise in inflation this week does not change the Fed’s near-term calculus, why it is not worth using geopolitical events as a basis for a market call, and why the rise in yields is providing an alternative to stocks.
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Oct 6, 2023 • 23min

RenMac Off-Script: Grasping At Straws

The RenMac team discusses the upside surprise in payrolls, why the bears are grasping at straws, how the UAW strike could impact future prints, the increased yield sensitivity of sectors, how McCarthy’s ouster adds to the D.C. drama, the seasonal impact on markets, and how tactical conditions are providing an opportunity for the bulls.
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Sep 29, 2023 • 18min

RenMac Off-Script: Cracking Gold

The RenMac team discusses why hiking is harder for the Fed, the danger of focusing on headlines rather than data, cracks in gold, well-behaved BBB spreads, why a rally without beta is troublesome, more motion than progress on avoiding a gov’t shutdown, and the politics of replacement regarding the Senate seats for Feinstein and Menendez.
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Sep 22, 2023 • 17min

RenMac Off-Script: No Capitulation

The RenMac team discusses why the gov’t shutdown could last a while, why the market reaction was more surprising than the Fed’s decision to erase cuts for next year, why the Fed is unlikely to hike in December either, why the 2-year yield and BBB spread usually respond Fed but not this time, not yet oversold in equities, close to improving seasonality, and why Trump is going to the MI and not the second GOP debate.

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