The Julia La Roche Show

Christopher Zook, founder and Chief Investment Officer of CAZ Investments, which oversees around $5 billion in assets under management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 72 for a wide-ranging macroeconomic discussion.  In this episode, Zook shares that a recession is coming, and it’s “going to be deeper and probably longer than people think.” He adds that we’ll have a “manufactured recession,” where inflation is running so hot that the Federal Reserve has to raise rates fast to slow down inflation, forcing the economy into a recession. Moreover, he points out that markets believe the Fed will start cutting rates by the end of the year, something Zook does not expect to happen.   In these types of environments, Zook is looking for opportunities in dislocated assets or persistent assets that perform well, even if his hypothesis is found to be true.  Zook has over 30 years of experience investing in traditional and alternative asset classes. He was recently honored with the Texas Alternative Investments Association’s (TAIA) Lifetime Achievement Award in recognition of his contribution and sustained support of the industry in Texas. He regularly contributes to major media outlets, including CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg. Before starting CAZ Investments in 2001, Zook served in senior leadership positions with Oppenheimer, Prudential Securities, Lehman Brothers, and Paine Webber. 0:00 Intro 2:12 Welcoming Christopher Zook to the show 2:50 Beginnings in investing  3:43 Trading commodities to pay for college 4:40 Reading about traders  5:55 Managing risk extremely carefully  7:20 Starting own firm  8:20 Managing money at age 22  8:50 Set goal to start firm in 10 years  9:50 Tony Robbins  10:40 The bigger the way, the bigger the try  14:00 Zook’s “why”  16:20 CAZ Investments structure and focus  18:36 Thematic approach  20:30 Betting against subprime housing  25:00 Macro outlook 25:12 Meme stock bubble  26:23 It takes longer than people think to reconcile dislocations  27:07 We haven’t seen true dislocation yet  27:40 Recession is coming and it will be deeper and longer than people think  28:08 A manufactured recession  29:00 I’ll be shocked if the Fed cuts rates this year 30:06 More of a 2-3 year recession  31:00 Disconnect between the Fed and the market  33:20 Be greedy when others are fearful  33:54 Stagflation  34:34 Worst economic regime for financial assets  38:13 Opportunities  40:20 Themes right now  41:09 Cord-cutting  41:40 Opportunity in sports teams, media rights 43:55 Themes that exist in real estate today  45:40 Stress from higher rates will force refinancing  46:45 Why we haven’t seen panic selling yet  47:45 Every sector of real estate will be stressed  50:40 U.S. Dollar outlook  53:39 U.S. debt levels are terrifying  56:29 Growth of private assets  57:04 Opportunity in GP stakes 

Omeed Malik (@RealOmeedMalik), founder and CEO of Farvahar Partners, a boutique merchant bank and broker/dealer which invests partner capital into growth businesses and acts as a liquidity provider of private placements on behalf of companies and institutional investors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 71 to share what he sees as an emerging parallel economy in the U.S. that’s in stark contrast to ESG. Omeed is the chairman and CEO of a SPAC called Colombier Acquisition Corp. that is taking PublicSq., a marketplace for “pro-America business and consumers,” public later this year. He also started a fund called 1789 Capital to provide “venture and growth capital to companies building the next era of American prosperity.”  Prior to starting his own firm, Omeed was a Managing Director and the Global Head of the Hedge Fund Advisory Business at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Omeed was also the founder and head of the Emerging Manager Program within the Global Equities business. In this capacity, Omeed was charged with selecting both established and new hedge funds for the firm to partner with and oversaw the allocation of financing/prime brokerage, capital strategy, business consulting and talent introduction resources. Before joining Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Omeed was a Senior Vice President at MF Global, where he helped reorganize the firm’s distribution platform globally and developed execution and clearing relationships with institutional clients. An experienced financial services professional and securities attorney, Omeed was a corporate lawyer at Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP working on transactional matters in the capital markets, corporate governance, private equity and bankruptcy fields. Omeed has also worked in the United States Senate and House of Representatives. Omeed received a JD, with Honors, from Emory Law School (where he serves on the Advisory Board) and a BA in Philosophy and Political Science, Cum Laude, from Colgate University. He holds Series 7, 63, 3, 79, and 24 registrations.  Omeed is a Term Member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a Centennial Society Member of the Economic Club of New York and a Chairman’s Circle Member of the Milken Institute. Omeed is a Contributing Editor and minority owner of The Daily Caller. 0:00 Intro 2:06 Welcoming Omeed Malik 2:50 From D.C. to corporate law to Wall Street 3:30 Started as a speechwriter in D.C.  4:11 Working for Jon Corzine at MF Global 5:12 Launching Farvahar in 2018, advising founders 5:38 New opportunity in a new economy called the “patriot economy”  6:33 D.C. is a place where you get a lot of power, but not money 7:20 The country has changed 8:05 No longer identifying as a Democrat 8:33 2016 election of Trump 9:12 Rise of China  11:33 Leaving the Democratic Party  14:15 Tulsi Gabbard  16:22 China is the most significant geopolitical threat in my lifetime  20:16 ‘Red America’ is a huge TAM  21:02 ESG is a marketing scam  23:00 ESG backlash  26:20 Opportunity for a parallel economy focused on ‘EIG’ (Entrepreneurship, Innovation, Growth) 28:30 A $7T opportunity  33:00 A bifurcated economy  34:30 Taking PublicSq. public via SPAC 35:00 Bud Light Dylan Mulvaney backlash led to spike in search for alternative beer 36:30 Scratching the surface of the opportunity  38:40 Changes on a personal level 40:00 TikTok a ‘Trojan Horse’ in a modern-day Opium War  41:00 Evisceration of the middle class 42:00 Ceding liberty when you work for a large corporation  44:41 Need to reevaluate the relationship between the U.S. and China  51:27 Optimistic for the future of the U.S. 53:00 Big Tech’s “Devil’s bargain”  55:00 Impact on relationships 

Long-time macro investor Axel Merk (@AxelMerk), Chief Investment Officer of and founder of Merk Investments, returns to the pod for episode 70 and a wide-ranging conversation on monetary policy, the economy, the banking crisis, problems plaguing commercial real estate, the U.S. Dollar, gold and more. In this episode, Merk points out how the economy is a mess. He also explains that those in the “soft landing” camp are ignoring “the big elephant in the room,” which is the bank balance sheets exposed to interest rate risk and commercial real estate. He later adds that the Fed’s actions are converting an acute problem into a chronic problem, where banks with holes in their balance sheets will lend less, which is a headwind to growth.  Axel has grown Merk Investments into a $1 billion investment advisory firm offering investment funds and advisory services on liquid global markets, including domestic and international equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies. 0:00 Intro 1:50 Welcome Axel Merk 2:22 Background in macro 3:32 Deep dives into central banks  4:00 The Fed is higher for longer  4:53 Big elephant in the room are the banks  6:02 Banking crisis is still here 8:40 Banking system limping along  10:38 Policymakers will bend the rules  11:29 People will invest based on next bailout as opposed to fundamentals  13:00 Commercial real estate  15:22 How to fix banks  20:07 Moral hazard?  21:30 Banking is risky  23:22 SVB depositors 29:00 Converting acute problems into chronic problems 30:00 Inflation 34:00 Stagflation a longer more persistent issue 48:00 Dedollarization  51:47 Risk of people moving out of the dollar is more than theoretical  56:41 Debt ceiling fight  1:01:01 Capitalism 

Joseph Wang (@fedguy12), the CIO of Monetary Macro and a former senior trader on the Open Markets Desk, joins Julia La Roche on episode 69 for a wide-ranging conversation on the monetary system, macro economy, and recent banking panic.  Wang is also the author of Central Banking 101, which is now an Amazon best-seller, and operates Fedguy.com, a blog on developments in the financial markets. During this episode, Wang said it’s almost inevitable that the U.S. will have a decade of persistently high inflation. He also mentioned that this trend is difficult to combat and is driven mainly by the culture and politics of the era. According to Wang, we are in the early stages of the inflationary cycle. 0:00 Introduction 1:40 Welcoming Joseph Wang on the show 2:11 From practicing law to trading on the Open Markets Desk 3:20 Practicing law is boring 4:02 Graduating in 2008  5:38 Open Markets Desk at the Fed  7:02 Central Banking 101  8:26 Misconceptions around the monetary system  10:50 Disconnect between school and real-life in macro 11:58 Commercial banks create money out of thin air  13:49 Eurodollar system  16:42 Eurodollar futures market  19:08 Market is fighting the Fed  20:17 Eurodollar banking  21:33 De-dollarization 24:00 There aren’t a lot of good alternatives to the U.S. Dollar 25:00 What it takes to be a reserve currency  25:45 Weaponization of the U.S. Dollar  26:58 Bitcoin  28:06 Will the U.S. Dollar lose its reserve status in our lifetime?  28:47 Implications of the U.S. dollar losing its global reserve status  30:33 Inflation will be a lot higher than we are used to  31:08 Big driver of inflation is the culture and politics of the era 34:27 Macro outlook  35:46 Demographic changes 39:48 Banking crisis is over  44:42 Intervention during the banking crisis  49:19 Is banking safer for depositors?  50:15 Fed is in inflation-fighting mode  53:38 Parting thoughts

Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, joins Julia La Roche on episode 68 to discuss where we are in the changing world order, the macroeconomic outlook, and the rising tensions between the U.S. and China. Dalio revisited his thesis from his best-selling book, "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail." The investor outlined three significant forces, including enormous debts and zero or near-zero interest rates that led to massive printing of money; big political and social conflicts within countries, especially the U.S., due to the largest wealth, political, and values disparities in more than 100 years; and the rising of a world power (China) to challenge the existing world power (the U.S.) and the existing world order. Dalio points out that the last time that this confluence occurred was between 1930 and 1945. 0:00 Intro 1:52 Introducing Ray 2:14 Macro picture 2:56 3 big forces shaping the world 5:14 2 other big influences 7:20 Tracking the typical cycle 7:50 We're in stage 5 when there are very bad financial conditions and intense conflict 10:20 U.S. and China approaching greater risk of War 11:02 Debt problem 12:57 If you mark-to-market bonds at existing rates, you have a lot of financially hurt entities worldwide 13:35 Silicon Valley Bank is a 'canary in the coal mine' 18:00 Political internal fighting 19:45 Emergence of populism 21:41 The cycle in the U.S. since 1945 23:45 Over-indebtedness and increasing wealth gaps 25:38 Spend more than we earn, in debt, and large wealth, opportunity, and values gaps 28:01 Can we avoid the decline? 28:41 If Ray Dalio were president… 30:16 If you worry, you don't have to worry. 31:22 U.S.-China relationship 35:00 The redline 36:40 Brinksmanship 37:15 Risk of investing or doing business in China 40:00 World order breakdown 41:33 The bifurcation 43:00 'I know I'm scaring people…' 44:40 The biggest risk on Ray's mind 45:54 'One thing Democrats and Republicans are united on is anti-China.' 49:30 U.S. Treasuries 51:42 Portfolio construction 54:24 Diversify internationally 55:58 Status of the U.S. dollar, de-dollarization story 57:57 Bitcoin views today 1:01:01 Bridgewater, after stepping down 1:03:57 Parting thoughts

Jeff Snider (@JeffSnider_AIP) is an expert on the global monetary system, specifically the Eurodollar money system, and all aspects of its misunderstood inner workings and how they impact global markets, commerce, and the economy. His podcast Eurodollar University aims to educate the public on the evolution, nature, and nuances of the Eurodollar system and true monetary principles. He is a regular contributor to Real Clear Markets and a columnist for the Epoch Times and is active on Twitter as well as He has been a guest on countless programs, including MacroVoices, and Real Vision, for his insights into the Eurodollar system, LIBOR and repo/securities lending markets., etc. During episode 67, Jeff explains that since late last year, markets have been "screaming bloody murder" in a way that hasn't been since 2007. According to Jeff, markets are hedged for a 2008-style scenario. 0:00 Introduction 1:53 Welcome Jeff Snider 2:40 Macro picture is “all sorts of ugly” 3:29 Economy in 2021 was an “artificial high” 4:00 Not just about macro, also about monetary system too 4:40 Still in the beginning stages 5:11 The economy is looking worse in short to intermediate-term outlook 6:00 Base case is mass layoffs 6:33 A false sense of confidence about the unemployment rate 9:48 Unemployment 11:43 The market is screaming bloody murder 12:48 A 2008-style scenario 14:40 Something wrong in the global system 17:30 How’d we get here? 18:20 Misconceptions around money printing and interest rates 19:45 Suffering from a lack of credit growth 22:06 The Eurodollar story 26:00 The Fed doesn’t print money 27:50 Distortions in the economy 29:00 Fed is ‘smoke and mirrors’ 33:00 What is money? 34:34 Banking crisis 36:23 Monetary system has become incredibly fragile 37:33 Fragility of the monetary system 38:07 A shortage of good quality collateral 43:00 Treasury Bills 46:00 De-dollarization story 49:00 Shortage of dollars 49:37 The Eurodollar system will be replaced at some point 53:00 The shadow money system 55:00 Eurodollar system is a black hole 58:00 Digital currencies 1:01:37 What keeps Jeff up at night?

Bethany McLean (@bethanymac12), author and journalist, joins Julia La Roche on episode 66 to revisit some notorious corporate failures and discuss fraud. Bethany is the author of The Smartest Guys in the Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron and All the Devils Are Here: The Hidden History of the Financial Crisis. She has also written two mini books, Shaky Ground: The Strange Saga of the US Mortgage Giants and Saudi America: The Truth About Fracking and How It's Changing the World. She also serves on the board of the Stigler Center at the University of Chicago. She's a 1992 graduate of Williams College. 0:00 Background and path to journalism  1:47 Goldman Sachs to fact-checking at Fortune  4:15 Writing about investing  5:45 Another side to stories  6:37 Enron  9:20 Reporting the Enron story  14:45 Lessons from Enron  15:20 Do you own homework  18:00 Emotion in business  20:00 Short-selling  23:11 Do your own homework  24:19 Valeant stock battle  26:10 Legal fraud  30:38 A thin line between a fraudster and a visionary  33:15 World of business is crazier than ever before  37:45 Golden age of fraud?  41:03 Venture capital and private equity’s reliance on low-interest rates  43:43 A different environment  44:44 Curiosity covering corporate failures  47:00 Can greed be eliminated?  48:48 Banking crisis  49:55 State of journalism 

Mark Yusko (@MarkYusko), founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, which manages close to $2 billion in assets, joined Julia La Roche on episode 65. In this episode, Yusko, a long-time macro investor, frames up the current macroeconomic backdrop and why we’re on the precipice of what he calls the Global Financial Crisis II as banks fail and jitters spread throughout the financial system. As Yusko puts it, “calm is the edge we need” as the crisis worsens. Yusko was the CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, contributing to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation. In this episode, Yusko provides a deep dive into the Endowment Model, which takes advantage of time-horizon arbitrage. He also delves into the mandate of investing in innovation, sharing an example of a half-a-million-dollar investment that turned into a $200 million return thanks to Sequoia’s early bet in Google on behalf of Notre Dame. Yusko points out that the greatest wealth is created by being an early investor. However, making that investment requires believing in something before most people understand it, making you mocked, ridiculed, and criticized for your non-consensus action. Today, he continues to see that opportunity in blockchain technology, digital currency, and digital assets. He is again at the forefront of institutional investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018 to invest in these opportunities. 0:00 Intro  3:08 The Endowment Model  4:08 Taking advantage of time-horizon arbitrage 6:47 What else makes the Endowment Model unique? 8:00 Equity 10:20 Greatest wealth is created by being an early investor in innovation   12:08 Mark’s background 13:33 Dialogue and debate through active listening 16:00 Lessons investing in bonds 19:00 A-ha moment in venture capital  20:00 Investing in Sequoia early  21:19 Being a journalist might be the best training for investing  22:08 Half-a-million investment turns to $200 million thanks to Google investment  25:30 Living the path of technological innovation  30:40 The Truth Net explained 32:44 Macro backdrop  34:19 Liquidity drives markets  35:55 Fractional reserve banking  39:00 Banking system driven by liquidity 41:20 Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin 2009 white paper  44:00 Digital asset innovation  47:00 Bitcoin as a digital store of value 50:15 A better system  51:00 Duration mismatch in the banking system  55:00 Impact of money printing  57:16 Bitcoin  58:49 Money printing doesn’t create wealth  1:01:10 On the precipice of GFC II  1:07:00 Chance meeting with Howard Marks 1:14:30 Blockchain is an Operating System

Ken Shinoda, portfolio manager at DoubleLine Capital, joins Julia La Roche on episode 64 to provide his macro outlook and views on housing. He also shares one of his highest conviction ideas right now. Ken joined DoubleLine at its inception in 2009. He is Chairman of the Structured Products Committee and oversees the non-Agency RMBS team specializing in non-Agency mortgage-backed securities, residential whole loans, and other mortgage-related opportunities. He is co-Portfolio Manager on the Total Return, Opportunistic Income, Income, Opportunistic MBS and Strategic MBS strategies. He is also lead Portfolio Manager overseeing the Mortgage Opportunities private funds. Ken is a permanent member of the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee and also participates in the Global Asset Allocation Committee. Ken is also the host of DoubleLine’s “Channel 11 News” (@DLineChannel11), a YouTube and webcast series that provides market insights and commentary with peers and industry experts. 0:00 Intro 0:38 A ‘master’s degree in finance’ analyzing MBS during the GFC 2:20 Macro view 5:07 Way more negative on the economy 6:00 Structured Products, explained 7:50 Why housing didn’t crash 8:27 Mirror opposite of the financial crisis 9:30 Office space 12:00 Less of a soft landing now 13:30 Housing outlook 17:50 Existing home sales 19:11 The Great Migration 21:00 Institutional buying in housing 24:55 Why the desert states are declining 25:30 Seeing homebuilding pick up again 26:37 Investing in RMBS explained 31:50 Forbearance 33:00 Views on credit quality, performance during different market cycles 37:00 Rates 40:00 Structured products 41:41 Commercial real estate 45:00 Parting thoughts

Jonathan Boyar, President of Boyar Research and host of The World According To Boyar podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 63 to share how he’s finding value during uncertain times.  During this episode, Boyar shares some of the opportunities he’s finding on an individual company level when looking under the hood of the markets.  0:00 Intro  0:51 Looking for intrinsically undervalued stocks 2:06 Evolution of value investing  3:35 Dislike of the term “value investing”  4:25 Lesson of patience 6:28 Big picture is important but it’s not critical to our investment  6:58 Make decisions on each individual company  7:24 What investors should be focused on  8:00 Does the macro matter?  9:04 Steve Einhorn, Leon Cooperman 9:55 Banking crisis and opportunity in the big money center banks 11:04 You’re never going to catch the bottom, but there are attractive entry points 12:01 Catalysts for upside in banking  12:25 Markets are being driven by fear and emotion  13:11 Nibbling on stocks  14:00 Psychology to stick through tougher times  15:00 Be humble know when you’re wrong  15:50 Market outlook is cloudy  16:44 Opportunities in microcap stocks  17:09 Return to stock-picking?  17:47 Top Golf, MSG Sports, Big Banks  18:20 Importance of reading 19:01 Top Golf is a “growth stock at a value price”  21:40 Big banks for those who are “brave”  22:23 MSG Sports “special situations” thesis  28:25 The “Forgotten 40” and favorite ideas 31:41 What would provide more clarity  32:00 Long-term view  33:20 Regional banks