The Julia La Roche Show

Best-selling author Jim Rickards (@JamesGRickards) returns to the podcast for the third time to share his views on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and why the intervention — especially the Federal Reserve’s new emergency lending program, the Bank Term Funding Program — is the biggest bailout in history. Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. 0:00 Intro 1:00 Reaction to SVB, Signature Bank failures 1:54 The mistake Silicon Valley Bank made 4:12 Bond Math 101 4:45 The Fed is between a rock and a hard place 4:52 Huge unrealized losses on the bond portfolio at SVB 6:35 There already was leakage 9:33 Friday’s press release from the FDIC 12:50 Global ripple effects of SVB failure 14:50 Other banks had similar problems 17:08 Biggest bailout in history 23:00 Executive stock sales 24:11 There would likely have been lines at banks 25:00 The biggest crybabies were the billionaires 26:15 The banking system is effectively nationalized 32:00 This was risk management 101 39:46 The Volcker mistake 40:50 Inflation 42:30 You’ll see the Fed expanding the balance sheet 43:30 Name your poison 44:10 25bps at the next Fed meeting is the most likely scenario 44:55 This is the no-drama Fed 45:45 ECB 46:10 It’s a global economy 47:00 Panics have two stages 47:30 Credit Suisse 52:10 A road to ruin 54:35 Each bailout was bigger than the one before 55:30 A front based on confidence 58:30 Deteriorating trust in institutions 1:07:27 Gold

Willem Middelkoop (@wmiddelkoop), founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund and author of “The Big Reset: The War on Gold and the Financial Endgame,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 61. In this episode, Willem shares his reaction to the Silicon Valley Bank collapse and the actions by the Federal Reserve, FDIC, and the Treasury. In response to the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, the Federal Reserve, Treasury, and FDIC have taken emergency measures to ensure all bank depositors will be made whole, including those whose funds exceeded the maximum FDIC-insured level of $250,000. He explains why the guarantee of all depositors in the U.S. banking system is inflationary. Willem also outlines his thesis from his book “The Big Reset” and why we’re already witnessing the financial endgame. Elsewhere, he shares why he expects investors will seek assets like gold, silver, and bitcoin that don’t have counterparty risks. He also details his simple model for portfolio construction. A free PDF version of The Big Reset is available here: https://www.cdfund.com/clientdata/222/media/pdf/The-Big-Reset.pdf Willem's writings on Patreon can be found here: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=84858815 0:00 Intro 1:00 Reaction to SVB failure 1:50 A record pace of rate hikes 2:10 Financial system is unstable because huge debt burden 2:41 The Federal Reserve is cornered 3:40 A big question is whether they should stop raising rates or continue raising 4:50 Raising depositor guarantee limits is inflationary 6:20 Gold, silver, and bitcoin on the rise are inflationary signs 7:20 Losing trust in the banking system? 11:00 Pressure on the dollar 15:50 Endgame of the current dollar system 17:20 The start of a new financial crisis 19:11 FDIC/Fed/Treasury move shows the desperation 20:27 A system built on paper assets 22:20 A new monetary system? 24:22 When too much money starts to flee paper assets to hard assets 25:21 Where gold, and silver could go? 29:00 How to hedge and hide? 29:35 Bitcoin is digital gold since 2014 30:00 Portfolio construction 31:05 Parting thoughts 31:59 Stress within the system becomes visible 33:20 A huge rally in stocks wouldn’t surprise

Tom Lee (@fundstrat), managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat and FS Insight, joins Julia La Roche on episode 60 to discuss macro and markets. In this episode, Tom makes a case that the markets bottomed in October 2022, and stocks have already been in an uptrend. He also shares what he thinks the bears are getting wrong. With nearly 30 years of macro markets and equity research experience, Lee is one of Wall Street's most widely recognized and followed macro strategists. He’s best known for his evidence-based work on equity markets and fast-growing technologies, including digital assets and wireless technologies. Viewers and listeners of The Julia La Roche Show get a complimentary 30-day membership to FS Insight by using this link: http://fsinsight.com/julialaroche 0:00 Intro 0:31 30 years on Wall Street 3:10 How markets work 5:19 Psychology plays a far bigger role than people realize 5:54 Macro outlook 7:01 Inflation appears to be slowing 8:03 Stock market is starting to see that the valley is behind us 9:18 Inflation peaked last year 10:31 Market bottomed in October 2022 10:50 Two things happened that is a big deal for the market 12:05 What are the bears missing? 13:58 Stock market was bad between February and October 14:49 Bias in the markets 16:50 Contrarian 19:21 Recognizing biases 22:22 Investors have to pay attention to people in their 20s, 30s 23:50 Tech is more important than any other decade 25:28 Only two ways to solve the labor shortage 28:00 Thoughts on AI and large language models 31:59 The Fed 36:13 Stock market is a good discounting mechanism 38:17 Yield curve is important to respect 42:20 Why have we avoided a recession? 45:00 Tech layoffs 51:06 Contrarian ideas 55:35 Biggest risk

Larry McDonald (@convertbond), author of the New York Times bestseller “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers,” and founder of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent macro research platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas, joined Julia La Roche on episode 59. In this episode, Larry explains that trillions of dollars are currently misallocated. In other words, a ton of wealth is invested in a world designed for inflation normalization to 2% or less. Larry makes a case that inflation will be stickier, and we’ll see inflation likely normalize at 4% instead of 2%. Elsewhere, he points out that many on Wall Street have been discussing the “no landing” scenario as a good thing. However, he explains that it’s bad because without it — and without 9 to 10% unemployment — the Fed can’t kill inflation. 0:00 Intro 0:44 “Delivering pizzas” to get a job on Wall Street 4:11 Background 6:13 Democratizing information 9:14 Stickiness of inflation 11:11 Trillions of dollars are misallocated 14:20 $1 million in 6-month T-bills = $51,000 of interest 16:00 Inflation is a threat to growth stocks 18:25 Opportunities in global value stock portfolios 20:41 Next crisis that’s coming is from a government point of view 24:00 We've permanently come into a new higher interest rate regime 24:07 Debt jubilee? 27:43 Why a soft landing or no landing is really a bad thing 30:00 Economic divide, Occupy Wall Street 2.0? 35:06 Question for Fed Chair Jerome Powell 37:02 Only way to kill inflation is with a hard landing 39:19 When you don’t allow the business cycle to function you create more excesses 42:40 Opportunities in the macro environment 46:59 Renaissance in EM bond, equity funds 49:04 Reconfiguring supply chains 53:53 Young investors want to go back to the same playbook 57:02 Parting thoughts

Famed farmer Joel Salatin, the co-owner of Polyface Farm in Swoope, Virginia, joins Julia La Roche on episode 58.  Joel, featured in the New York Times bestseller The Omnivore's Dilemma and the award-winning documentary Food Inc., has been called "the most famous farmer in America." He calls himself a "Christian libertarian environmentalist capitalist lunatic farmer." In this episode, Joel shares how his style of regenerative farming is having a cinderella moment. He also outlines the frailties of a centralized industrial food system and why the decentralized, more democratized model is the way forward. According to Joel, it's the only system that can ultimately feed the world because it's the only system that honors sustainability and regenerative capacity. Learn more about Polyface and visit the farm here.  Subscribe to The Julia La Roche Show's YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@TheJuliaLaRocheShow Follow Julia on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JuliaLaRoche 0:00 Intro 1:10 Big picture  1:40 Fragilities of centralized, industrial food system 2:35 Prices in the industrial sector have escalated  3:00 Polyface working with decentralized, democratized suppliers  3:44 A cinderella moment for Polyface 4:00 Answers, resiliency  4:50 Didn't have to raise prices as much  5:58 Ways to buy better with less money 7:55 Use your kitchen  11:00 How'd we get so far away from where our food comes from? 12:30 No freedom without participation  14:00 How to get involved  17:39 The biggest lie  19:28 Polyface Farms regenerative farming  20:00 Biomimicry  24:00 When you fight nature, nature tends to fight back 26:00 The only system that can feed the world  27:40 Scale not by centralization but by decentralization  29:40 Production per acre is way above the industry  37:10 If we had a Manhattan Project in  39:50 Living things can heal  43:00 A violation of life principle  44:00 Stigma of farming  45:49 The intellectual agrarian  46:30 The regeneration economy  48:00 You Can't have a respected farm community and a cheap food policy 49:40 Power is in the consumers' hands  51:00 80/20 Rule 55:00 Will there be a reckoning of the factory farming model? 

Milton Berg, CFA (@BergMilton), the CEO and Director of Research of MB Advisors, joined Julia La Roche on episode 57 for a deep dive into his technical analysis, which was taped on February 16. YouTube video: https://youtu.be/x7ms5ildUCQ Berg focuses on "Turning Point Analysis,” where he looks for turning point ends of trends. For example, he called the market bottom on June 16. On the day this episode was recorded (February 16, 2023), Berg explained why February 2 may have marked an important turning point in the markets, suggesting a probable end to that uptrend and a correction at least for the short term. Berg also shared that his firm is 100% short, going from leveraged long, to just 100% long to flat, and now 100% short. Milton has been in the financial services industry since 1978, with an extensive background in various roles on the buy side. Milton founded MB Advisors in 2012 to address a need for high-quality independent research with a macro, technical and historical focus. Milton began his career as a Commodities Analyst and Trader at Swiss-based Erlanger and Company. In 1980, he was a Fund Manager at First Investors Corp. and managed a natural resource fund as well as an option writing fund. In 1984, he moved to Oppenheimer and managed three mutual funds, which were each ranked as the top performer over a five-year period by Lipper. Milton then became a Partner at Steinhardt, one of the earliest hedge funds on Wall Street. More recently, he has worked with well-known titans of the hedge fund world, including Michael Steinhardt, George Soros, and Stanley Druckenmiller (Duquesne). Milton’s work has been featured in the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Barron’s, and Institutional Investor, in addition to other media outlets. His groundbreaking report “The Boundaries of Technical Analysis” was published in the summer of 2008 in the MTA’s Journal of Technical Analysis. His 2015 research report “Approach to the Markets” outlines his method for analyzing the stock market. Milton has held a Chartered Financial Analyst designation since 1979. The Institute for Economic Research named Milton as the Mutual Fund Manager of the Year in 1987 given his performance during the crash. That same year, Milton was jointly named with Stanley Druckenmiller as Mutual Fund Manager of the Year by Sylvia Porter’s Personal Finance Magazine. He has a forthcoming book “Milton Berg’s Guide to Technical Analysis and the Stock Market" 0:00 Intro 0:31 Background from fundamental analysis to technical analysis 2:00 Approach to technical analysis 2:44 False assumption that stocks do well over the long term 3:50 More you stray from capitalism the more likely stocks won’t perform as well 5:08 Capital gains tax is an error 6:50 Debt situation 8:50 Study of the Dow 10:00 What happened in the past will not necessarily happen in the future 10:15 Emergence of the Fed changed nature of the economy 10:54 Called market bottom on June 16 17:40 Yield curve 18:30 Coming out of the slowdown 18:50 Bullish for the year, projection of 4650 in the S&P 19:04 Turning point analysis 19:28 February 2 was a turning point 24:50 Something happened on Feb. 2 that might signal the end of the rally 36:00 Reason we had a great bull market 36:40 Bonds 39:00 Missing bull market signals 47:46 Why had stocks ignored Fed’s tightening moves? 48:00 Maybe the real decline begins now 49:39 Gold 52:40 Bitcoin is a fiction

Sam Burns, chief strategist of Mill Street Research, an independent research firm, joins Julia La Roche on episode 56. In this episode, Burns explains how he deploys a top-down macro research approach with bottoms-up analysis. He outlines why he’s recently been more bullish on equities and risk assets in at least a year. According to Burns, the economy is “not great, but it’s not as bad as expected.” He pointed out that the market had priced in much of last year's pessimism. Moreover, he’s not expecting an imminent recession like many were at the end of last year, noting that it’s, “at least being put off, if not, delayed until maybe in the next year.” Sam has over 20 years of experience as a market strategist, providing analysis and commentary to institutional investors globally. Prior to founding Mill Street Research in 2016, Sam worked as a senior strategist at leading firms, including Oppenheimer & Co., Brown Brothers Harriman, State Street Global Markets, and Ned Davis Research. Mill Street Research provides a suite of consistently updated research reports for institutional investors covering asset allocation, country allocation, sector and industry selection, and a robust quantitative stock selection process. We also provide customized work and special research projects for clients. 0:00 Intro 0:31 Background 2:53 Building an independent research firm 3:23 Combining top-down macro research with bottom-up analysis 5:36 Macro analysis 6:15 Distortions in the data 7:00 The economy is doing OK 7:46 Don’t think we’re heading for an imminent recession 8:45 Things aren’t going to be as bad as the bears are saying 9:49 Fed rate hikes impact on the economy 13:19 Why has the labor market held up? 17:30 Inflation 21:45 Can we get back to the 2% target? 25:50 Fiscal policy 29:44 Debt 33:09 Assessment of the markets 36:07 Opportunities 52:41 Yield curve

James Grant (@grantspub), founder and editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, a leading journal on financial markets since 1983, joins Julia La Roche on episode 55. Jim Grant is also the author of multiple financial history and biography books. His journalism has been featured in Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Foreign Affairs. He has appeared on 60 Minutes, Jim Lehrer’s News Hour, and CBS Evening News.   In this episode, Jim and Julia covered the monetary realm, the U.S. dollar, the U.S. indebtedness, gold, the Federal Reserve, inflation, bonds, and more.    According to Jim, the theme in the short run is disinflation, but inflation is for the long term. "We've boiled this down to a couple of headlines: We think that inflation is for the long term. We think that this is inherently inflationary setup we have with runaway public borrowing and with an unchecked and undisciplined engine of credit creation —the Fed — so inflation for the long run. But for the short term, we think it's things rather disinflationary, meaning the rate of rise and inflation is going to subside. And conditions will tighten for the financial markets,” Jim tells Julia, adding that, "Inflation is never transitory, at least not in the modern era, because prices never come down again, when they go up, they stay up."  0:00 Intro 0:38 How we got here 1:30 Monetary realm as an area of concern 2:29 Defining the dollar 2:57 Biggest change in sweep of financial history 4:30 Gold standard 5:50 Defining the dollar? How has it evolved 6:50 Weaknesses of the dollar 9:47 Lockdowns wouldn’t have been feasible 10:30 Origins of the great bulge in public debt 13:55 Fed actions during pandemic 16:43 Excesses in our financial and fiscal lives haven’t been fully felt yet 17:37 Rate of growth in debt far outstripping means to service it 20:30 Fed is going to carry us all into the poorhouse 22:00 Worrying about the debt 26:59 Outlook on the U.S. dollar 28:30 A poisoned chalice 30:00 Better if we lost the world reserve currency franchise 32:57 Gold 36:06 Central bank gold buying 38:20 Higher for longer? 41:00 Why the Fed might retreat? 45:00 Inverted yield curve 49:00 Does the yield curve predict a recession? 51:30 Bond market and interest conundrum 58:00 The Forgotten Depression 1:01:00 Setting up Grant’s Interest Rate Observer

Ted Oakley is Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors. With more than forty years of experience in advising high net worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective. He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation. 0:00 Intro 0:31 Reaction to CPI 1:09 Fed pivot not going to happen 1:45 Jay Powell is serious about getting inflation down 2:38 Many in the industry haven’t experienced higher rates 3:00 Biases 5:00 Things will likely be more volatile the next 10 years 6:03 60/40 risk parity trade 7:10 There always comes a change in investing 8:04 Volatility in rates could reflect to volatility in bond prices 10:45 Stock picking 12:26 Macro outlook 14:20 Markets aren’t priced correctly 15:10 50% liquidity 16:20 Not timing the market, timing the value 17:00 Earnings 18:00 Assessment of markets so far in 2023 19:09 Sobering up in markets 20:00 Capitulation? 23:00 What would happen if the Fed cut rates 23:30 Debt situation 26:00 Real estate 29:08 Housing 34:00 Opportunities 34:49 Gold and gold miners 38:52 Gold continued 41:00 Bitcoin 43:20 Super bubble and what a normalized investing environment looks like 48:00 Backstory, work with foster children

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, "Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity," joins Julia La Roche on episode 53 to provide a deep dive on what is global liquidity, why it matters, and how it drives markets.  Michael points out that liquidity is inflecting upwards and explains what's driving that move and the implications for markets, which are sensitive to these infections. What's more, with the liquidity cycle inflecting upward, the economy will likely see a turning point in the U.S., which Michael predicts will happen around May. He believes there will be a few more months of softness, but we're near "a turning point."  While many believe an inverted yield curve warns us that a recession is fast approaching, Michael explains why it's a flaky predictor and how term premia bias the yield curve. Julia and Michael also explore some of the themes from the book, "Capital Wars," including that as the investment world has gotten bigger, it's become more volatile, where financial crises are more common. They also touch upon the intensifying tussle between the U.S. and China as the dominant financial economy.  Michael founded CrossBorder Capital in 1996. He developed the quantitative liquidity research methodology while he was Research Director at Salomon Bros. from 1986. He was subsequently appointed Head of Research at Baring Securities in 1992, and was top-ranked "Emerging Market Strategist" by institutional investors for the three years before setting up CrossBorder Capital. Michael has worked in financial markets since 1981 and is a regular international conference speaker. He is a qualified US Supervisory Analyst and has a Doctorate in Economics. 0:00 Intro  0:31 Macro view 1:00 Understanding money flows  1:30 Salomon Brothers  3:35 What is liquidity and what is it signaling today 5:00 Financial markets suddenly kickstarted upwards  6:00 Crypto is purely a liquidity phenomenon  7:00 Tech bouncing significantly as liquidity has picked up  7:15 Why is liquidity turning up?  8:00 China  9:30 What's happening in the big economies 11:15 Liquidity conditions from Fed have picked up  12:50 Q.T. is dead effectively is dead in the U.S.  13:27 Implications for markets  15:06 Term premia for bond investors  17:50 Why the inverted yield curve is a flaky predictor of a recession 18:08 What are fixed-income markets signaling?  18:28 Think of the stock market as a predictor of the economy  19:09 Close to an inflection point on the economy  22:37 Global financial system is now collateral based  23:00 Term premia is biasing the 10-2 yield curve  25:34 Good reasons why the yield curve is distorted  26:19 Evidence the Fed is in control  26:45 Ukraine War 28:48 U.S. is the cleanest shirt in the laundry  29:50 Ultimate job of central banks is financial stability  31:30 Capital Wars  35:00 As the world gets bigger it becomes more volatile  35:19 China's ambition to unseat the U.S. Dollar as the global reserve currency  38:40 Understanding equity markets  40:17 Tech stocks  41:30 Credit is dependent upon collateral  44:13 Debt mountain has grown  47:00 Financial crises will appear more regularly in the future  47:35 Japan is the canary in the coal mine  50:00 Threat to the financial system  51:15 Need liquidity because of debt  52:00 Financial markets of Victorian London  53:17 Yield curve control is coming klTK j