The Julia La Roche Show

Neil Howe, author, historian, economist, and consultant who is best known for his work on social generations and generational trends, joins Julia La Roche on episode 93.  Along with the late William Strauss, Howe is credited with creating the concept of generational theory and popularizing terms such as "Millennial Generation." Howe has written several books on generational trends, including "The Fourth Turning" and "Generations." His work focuses on understanding the cyclical patterns of history and how different generations shape society. A quarter of a century ago, Howe and Strauss introduced an innovative interpretation of American history. They identified a recurring pattern: modern history proceeds in cycles, roughly 80 to 100 years long, mirroring a human lifespan. Each cycle encompasses four distinct eras, or "turnings," each lasting about 25 years and always following the same sequence. The fourth and final turning, they found, was invariably the most tumultuous and transformative, on par with events like the New Deal, World War II, the Civil War, or the American Revolution. In his newest book, "The Fourth Turning Is Here," Howe applies his understanding of historical cycles to anticipate the resolution of current civic unrest and project the potential future state of America over the next decade. According to Howe, we will reach a climax by the early 2030s. While this climax poses substantial risks, it also carries the potential for a new era of prosperity in America. The outcome of this critical juncture, he argues, will be determined by every living generation's involvement. Links:  Twitter: https://twitter.com/HoweGeneration The Fourth Turning Is Here: https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-Here-Seasons-History/dp/1982173734 0:00 Intro 1:21 Generational Theory  5:00 Generations arrive in patterns  8:00 These periods of crisis come once in a lifetime 11:20 Writing “The Fourth Turning” in 1997  13:00 Fourth Turning catalysts  15:30 Sales of “The Fourth Turning” book accelerated since pandemic  16:50 The role of Millennials in the Fourth Turning  20:00 Younger people losing faith in democracy  21:18 Generational archetypes  27:43 Millennials as the “Hero”  33:40 Fourth Turning will likely end in the early 2030s  39:00 An internal or external conflict?  44:00 Macroeconomic picture and the Fourth Turning  49:00 Relationships  50:28 What keeps Neil up at night?  53:00 Optimistic about the future 

Milton Berg, CFA, the CEO and Director of Research of MB Advisors (https://miltonberg.com), joins Julia La Roche on episode 92 for a deep dive into his technical analysis and macro. Berg focuses on "Turning Point Analysis,” where he looks for turning point ends of trends. In this episode, Berg shared reasons for why he sees strong evidence that this market won't do well and the bull market may be ending and heading toward a significant correction. 0:00 Intro 0:37 Long-term big picture 6:27 Short-term big picture 8:54 Turning points in the market  11:00 No evidence of momentum. It’s an emotional feeling 21:30 Accelerations 27:02 Bank stocks and the bear market  35:40 Why he’s short right now  37:38 Gap down and gap up, explained  47:00 Price target for the S&P 500 50:00 Worried about dissing capitalism 

On episode 91, Julia La Roche is joined by Peter Atwater, an adjunct professor of economics at William & Mary, and author of "The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity". Atwater explains how confidence is the real "invisible hand" in our economy, markets, and everyday lives. He also shares his concern about the divergent economy, where billionaire confidence is soaring while a large population feels left behind, not only in the US but also in other countries. Atwater is the first who shared the notion of a K-shaped recovery in the economy. Links:  The Confidence Map: https://www.amazon.com/Confidence-Map-Charting-Chaos-Clarity/dp/0593539559/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Peter_Atwater LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-atwater-08467034/ Peter’s website: https://peteratwater.com/ 0:00 Intro / Background 2:48 Psychology of investor decision-making and economic decision-making 3:35 Behavioral economists typically focus on what we do wrong 4:30 The role of confidence  6:40 Confidence Quadrant framework  10:00 Application of the Confidence Quadrant on macro/micro level  13:00 Executives discussing AI  14:47 Investors are in the “comfort zone” on the Confidence Quadrant  15:35 The K-shaped recovery  17:48 If markets were to price in Main Street sentiment they would considerably lower  18:30 Two different sets of moods and preferences  20:30 Assessment of the current state of America today  24:00 Evaluating consumer confidence and the 2016 election  28:00 Gen Z’s confidence?  31:00 Millennials’ sentiment  33:00 Real life moves us around  35:00 Music and the mood  38:00 Taylor Swift phenomenon  39:30 Peak confidence?  40:30 Mania in the Magnificent Seven  41:15 Passive investing puts investors in the “passenger seat”  44:00 Elon Musk is the “Kevin Bacon” of every popular investment theme 47:20 Media is the “mirror of mood”  50:30 Why confidence is the real “invisible hands”  53:00 Best indicator of an upcoming recession  55:00 Bidenomics is another sentiment indicator  

Jens Nordvig, founder and CEO of Exante Data, joins Julia La Roche on episode 90 to share his macro outlook, his views on the U.S. dollar, and his latest venture — Market Reader — a startup providing real-time explanations of market movement for investors and advisors. Links Twitter: https://twitter.com/jnordvig Substack: https://moneyinsideout.exantedata.com/ Market Reader: https://marketreader.com/ Exante Data: https://www.exantedata.com/ 0:00 Intro 0:55 Macro picture 1:57 A turning point in inflation 4:10 Evidence of an inflection point 7:35 Market 8:30 Don’t see evidence of a dramatic tip in the economy 10:00 Housing not crashing 12:40 A brief history of dollar hatred 19:00 Impact of weakening dollar on investments 20:25 Artificial Intelligence and building Market Reader 24:33 Started Market Reader pre ChatGPT 26:55 AI and the macro outlook 28:48 Two trends that are worrisome 31:40 Will Fed policy have to consider AI? 33:43 No cuts any time soon 35:13 Positives of AI for a researcher 37:50 Impact of AI on certain finance jobs 42:00 Founding a startup 45:00 Market Reader examples 48:49 How Market Reader has helped Jens' productivity 51:20 Study 52:52 Parting thoughts

Macro researcher Jim Bianco (@BiancoResearch), the president of Bianco Research, joins Julia La Roche again for a wide-ranging conversation on the macroeconomic environment. In this episode, Bianco shares why he thinks we've seen a bottoming in inflation and that it will start to creep back up. He also explained why he doesn't see the Fed pivoting because the inflation rate is likely to be problematic. Elsewhere, Bianco explains why he's not necessarily in the recession camp. 0:00 Intro  1:00 Macro view  4:20 That’s not “TINA”  6:35 Unusual market performance this year  10:29 Thoughts on passive investing 14:00 On AI: Overhype the short-term, underestimate the long-term  18:00 Impact of AI on finance 25:05 Might not be in the recession camp  29:40 Did something already break?  32:34 Sticky inflation  36:00 Labor market is very different from what anyone thinks it is right now  43:00 Impact on cities, commercial real estate, public transportation  51:33 Regional bank risk  55:15 Energy  1:01:00 Parting thoughts 

Dr. Edward I. Altman, Max L. Heine Professor of Finance, Emeritus at the Stern School of Business, New York University, joins Julia La Roche on episode 88 for an in-depth discussion on where we are in the credit cycle and the global phenomenon of zombie companies. Dr. Altman is a renowned professor and researcher for his bankruptcy prediction and credit risk analysis work. Dr. Altman earned his MBA and Ph.D. in Finance from the University of California, Los Angeles. He has been with NYU Stern School of Business since 1967. He is most famous for developing the Z-Score formula in the late 1960s. The Z-Score is a financial model that uses historical data to predict a company's likelihood of bankruptcy. This formula is widely used by investors, financial analysts, and auditors as a tool for predicting corporate defaults and an aid in credit risk management. Dr. Altman has published numerous books and articles on the topics of bankruptcy, corporate distress analysis, corporate financial restructuring, and credit risk. His work has had a significant impact on both academic finance and practical investment analysis. Links:  Where We Are In The Credit Cycle: https://creditorcoalition.org/special-feature-professor-ed-altman-on-where-we-are-in-the-credit-cycle/ Wiser Funding: https://www.wiserfunding.com/ Corporate Financial Distress, Restructuring and Bankruptcy Book: https://www.amazon.com/Corporate-Financial-Distress-Restructuring-Bankruptcy/dp/1119481805/ NYU Stern: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/faculty/bio/edward-altman 0:00 Intro  0:49 Where are we in the credit cycle?  2:43 5 indicators (Default Rates; Recovery Rates, Required Rates of Return; Distressed Ratio; and Liquidity)  10:00 Is the market underestimating the near-term risk of defaults? 15:50 We’ve reached an inflection point  18:00 Historical default rates, benign credit cycles, and recession periods in the US 22:00 Warning of a great credit bubble in 2007  25:15 Why have defaults been so low?  28:20 Scenario of 10% default rates in credit markets? 33:30 Zombies and the Z-Score 39:40 Zombieism globally has increased from 1.5% to about 7%  44:00 Implications of keeping zombie companies alive  48:30 Why does the US have so many zombie companies?  50:00 Triple Cs risk of default  53:48 Bankruptcy v. Bailout 1:01:00 Bankruptcy reforms and impact on zombies  1:04:25 Zombies only increased slightly during Covid  1:06:30 What are people asking Dr. Altman on his lecture tour?  1:08:36 Starting a fintech called Wiser Funding  1:12:08 Parting thoughts 

Jason Trennert, co-founder and CEO of Strategas Research Partners, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging conversation on the macro picture. They discuss the likelihood of a recession in the next 6-12 months, the impact on financial assets, and the perplexing market going up despite doubts. They also touch on the labor market, risks faced by regional banks, the outlook for the energy sector, the power of lobbying in investment, and the concept of TINA - 'There Is No Alternative'.

The Acid Capitalist Hugh Hendry (@Hendry_Hugh) joins Julia La Roche again for an unfiltered conversation on macro, markets, Bitcoin, the Fed, and more.  Hendry founded Eclectica Asset Management, a global macro hedge fund that was pretty much uncorrelated to everything in the financial universe. Hugh started Eclectica in 2002 and ran for 15 years before closing in 2017. He made more than 30% in 2008 betting against banks. These days, Hendry is a luxury hotelier on St. Barts, where he spends his time surfing and still thinking about macro. He also hosts a weekly podcast called "Acid Capitalist" and shares his views on Instagram, Twitter, and Substack. 0:00 Intro 1:18 Macro picture, ‘my imagination is as dark as it was in 2007’ 5:00 “I’m fearful”, already in recession as we speak  8:18 Want to own equities right now  12:30 Bitcoin  15:00 Sitting with cash, waiting to buy  17:58 Been in a depression since 2008  22:30 Banking sector  27:30 Eurodollar system  32:00 Entrepreneurial dream has been replaced  34:50 Inflation Reduction Act is actually smart  38:00 A recession of a similar magnitude to 2008-2009  42:47 The five who know  45:30 Music and charts  47:30 Twitter 49:23 Parting thoughts 

Texas-based hedge fund manager J. Kyle Bass, the founder and chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management and founder of private equity firm Conservation Equity Management, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging discussion on macro, geopolitics, and the rising threat of China.  0:00 Intro  0:35 ‘Out of body experience’ meeting with former central bankers, academics 3:30 Fed is ‘completely out of touch with reality’  5:30 This has nothing to do with the Phillips Curve  6:58 Chain-weighting inflation  9:57 Frictions in society  12:15 Heading toward a recession  14:15 Commercial real estate  19:22 Yellen’s trip to China 26:00 Wall Street greed  21:03 Is the business community waking up?  26:20 Exposure to China 28:00 Risk of invading Taiwan  30:00 Talk about what Xi Jinping says  34:00 Should be ringing alarm bells about China  38:00 Need peace through strength  41:00 Economic War Department is needed 44:00 We sit at a hinge in history right now 

Michael Green (@profplum99), Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 84 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy and market. In this episode, Mike Green breaks down some of the implications of systematic and passive investment strategies and how they lead to the current market phenomena. Michael has been noted for his work as a market theoretician and financial media participant. He is a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and a CFA holder. Follow Mike on Twitter: https://twitter.com/profplum99 Read Mike’s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/ 0:18 When are we going to see a recession?  1:06 In the recession camp  2:40 Labor is bifurcated  4:55 Student loan debt  8:00 Implications of AI  13:55 Markets and the implications of passive investment strategies  18:10 Creating an asset bubble  21:57 What happens when the selling starts?  24:00 Driving a car uphill with no brakes  28:20 Growth of passive  33:58 Inelasticity of the markets  36:20 The Fed  42:22 Operating off fantastically outdated theories  45:00 Downside of these strategies  49:30 Narratives in the markets  54:00 Parting thoughts