The Julia La Roche Show
#087 Jason Trennert: If You're Playing The Odds Expect A Recession In The Next 6-12 Months
Jul 18, 2023
Jason Trennert, co-founder and CEO of Strategas Research Partners, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging conversation on the macro picture. They discuss the likelihood of a recession in the next 6-12 months, the impact on financial assets, and the perplexing market going up despite doubts. They also touch on the labor market, risks faced by regional banks, the outlook for the energy sector, the power of lobbying in investment, and the concept of TINA - 'There Is No Alternative'.
45:35
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Quick takeaways
- Jason Trennert predicts a recession within 6-12 months due to inflation and Fed tightening policies.
- The market's positive trend is driven by a select group of companies known as the 'Magnificent Seven' that benefit from revolutionary technologies and strong cash reserves.
Deep dives
Jason Trennert's cautious outlook on the economy and markets
Jason Trennert, co-founder and CEO of Stretiga's Research Partners, shares his cautious and bearish perspective on the economy and markets. Despite the recent market strength, Trennert believes a recession is likely to occur within the next 6 to 12 months, which is not favorable for financial assets like stocks. He attributes his cautiousness to the persistence of inflation and the Federal Reserve's tightening policies. Additionally, Trennert highlights the resilience of the economy, driven by consumer and corporate cash reserves from the COVID-19 pandemic. He acknowledges that although there is a level of optimism, there is still a significant risk of a recession in the near future.
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