Macro & Volatility™
Josh Silva of Passaic Partners and Michael Purves of Tallbacken Capital discuss the world of investing through the lens of cross-asset and derivative frameworks.The information, opinions and views expressed on this podcast are for informational purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. The opinions expressed may not align with Passaic Partners' views or its client strategies. Market forecasts are speculative and should not be the sole basis for investment decisions. Consult your financial and tax advisors before making any investments.
Latest episodes
Oct 3, 2024 • 9min
Macro & Volatility™ #13: Options Markets are Pointing To ...
Options Markets point to risk-on with a higher VIX through year-end. In China, right tail is bid. The AI rotation may benefit China and, derivatively, Europe.
Sep 10, 2024 • 7min
Macro & Volatility™ #12: Was the end of 2023 Qualifying for the end of 2024?
The Fed is data driven, is the bond market?What usually calms the market?What will calm this market?
Aug 16, 2024 • 12min
Macro & Volatility™ #11: Even Keanu would have been scared by the SPEED ...
Third derivative has impacted market structureWho bailed out short vol and dispersion traders?Bonds did their job, but do they have the juice to do it again?Will Dual Goldilocks prevail?
Jul 30, 2024 • 14min
Macro & Volatility™ #10: The Giant Spread Machine
Josh and Michael discuss whether the Rotation Trade is sustainable, if Russell is the right bedfellow and if thematic pairs trades are riskier than long indices.
Jul 11, 2024 • 12min
Macro & Volatility™ #9: The inflation we know; the inflation we don't know
Collecting equity risk premium is profitableInflation after November 5thInsurance is cheap!
Jun 25, 2024 • 10min
Macro & Volatility™ #8: Skew & OATs, which one is "Out of Touch?"
Josh and Michael discuss how FX volatility is not reflecting the same political concerns as French bonds, skew as a better indicator of risk than volatility in FX and how the VIX is low but the IV-RV spread is high in the US.
Jun 16, 2024 • 8min
Macro & Volatility™ #7: Slow Curve Ahead
Josh Silva and Michael Purves discuss Powell's dovish Fed commentary and its impact on the yield curve, potential rate cuts, and long-term policy rates. They delve into equity volatility, inflation factors, and expectations for the upcoming June Fed meeting.
Jun 16, 2024 • 10min
Macro & Volatility™ #6: Shhhh … a quiet gold rally
Explore the surprising rise of gold prices despite economic challenges, triggered by Asian central banks and low volatility. Discuss the impact of central bank actions on commodities like gold, copper, and oil amidst geopolitical risks. Analyze the influence of strong earnings on stock market performance amid market concerns.
Jun 16, 2024 • 10min
Macro & Volatility™ #5: The Fed has created Optionality
The podcast discusses how the Federal Reserve impacts market uncertainty and equity volatility, creating optionality in market dynamics. They analyze the correlation between equities and bonds, explore the potential of a commodity supercycle to spur inflation, and emphasize the importance of strategic decision-making by the Fed in handling ongoing supply constraints.
Jun 16, 2024 • 9min
Macro & Volatility™ #4: Higher Rates, Higher Growth, Higher VIX?
Exploring the effects of rising interest rates on the VIX and equity options market, historical trends of buying calls in the 90s market, the challenges for the Federal Reserve in managing volatility levels, and the constraints on future easing measures due to stubborn inflation levels.
