Macro & Volatility™ #6: Shhhh … a quiet gold rally
Jun 16, 2024
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Explore the surprising rise of gold prices despite economic challenges, triggered by Asian central banks and low volatility. Discuss the impact of central bank actions on commodities like gold, copper, and oil amidst geopolitical risks. Analyze the influence of strong earnings on stock market performance amid market concerns.
Central banks accumulating gold drive the rally, defying traditional asset relationships.
Low volatility in gold rally challenges typical market behavior, with potential transition to Wall Street-driven movement.
Deep dives
Gold Rally Analysis
Despite the traditional cross-asset relationships, the gold rally has seen unusual strength even with a strengthening dollar and high interest rates. Central banks like the Bank of China and the Bank of Poland have been key drivers of this rally, accumulating gold rather than trading it actively. The volatility of this gold rally has been remarkably low, contrary to typical market behavior where volatility increases with price rallies. As the rally progresses, there is anticipation that it may transition into a more Wall Street-driven movement.
Market Trends and Risks
The recent movement in gold, alongside shifts in equity markets and rising 10-year yields, has sparked adjustments in volatility and option skew. Concerns around inflation, the Fed's stance on interest rates, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have contributed to a complex market landscape. The potential impact of commodity rallies, including gold, oil, and copper, on treasury yields and consumer sentiment poses risks for equities in the coming months.
Central Bank Policies and Economic Outlook
The evolving policies of central banks like the Fed, ECB, and Bank of Japan are impacting market dynamics, with the Fed leaning towards a hawkish stance relative to other central banks. Despite macroeconomic considerations, earnings growth remains a key driver of equities, emphasizing the importance of business performance over macro events. While acknowledging potential market hiccups, there is an optimistic outlook on equities driven by positive earnings expectations and a focus on fundamental performance.