The US political risk premium. Market corrections could be violent. Upside may be limited by PE contraction; downside may be limited by two Trump puts.

Rate volatility will likely be higher for longer. Elevated rate volatility means higher mortgage rates. High mortgage rates will contribute to higher inflation.

Fleeting competition for gold. Gold strength continues despite dollar range, elevated rates, and low vol. Silver can catch up.

Options Markets point to risk-on with a higher VIX through year-end. In China, right tail is bid. The AI rotation may benefit China and, derivatively, Europe.

The Fed is data driven, is the bond market?What usually calms the market?What will calm this market?

Third derivative has impacted market structureWho bailed out short vol and dispersion traders?Bonds did their job, but do they have the juice to do it again?Will Dual Goldilocks prevail?

Josh and Michael discuss whether the Rotation Trade is sustainable, if Russell is the right bedfellow and if thematic pairs trades are riskier than long indices.

Collecting equity risk premium is profitableInflation after November 5thInsurance is cheap!

Josh and Michael discuss how FX volatility is not reflecting the same political concerns as French bonds, skew as a better indicator of risk than volatility in FX and how the VIX is low but the IV-RV spread is high in the US.

Josh Silva and Michael Purves discuss Powell's dovish Fed commentary and its impact on the yield curve, potential rate cuts, and long-term policy rates. They delve into equity volatility, inflation factors, and expectations for the upcoming June Fed meeting.