Exploring the effects of rising interest rates on the VIX and equity options market, historical trends of buying calls in the 90s market, the challenges for the Federal Reserve in managing volatility levels, and the constraints on future easing measures due to stubborn inflation levels.
Higher interest rates lead to increased volatility in equity options and VIX.
Potential Fed policy shift towards higher rates may signal prolonged market adjustment period.
Deep dives
Impact of Rising Rates on Volatility Markets
The podcast discusses the impact of rising interest rates on volatility markets, particularly in relation to recent economic data like CPI and PPI reports indicating higher inflation and wage gains. As rates climb, the VIX and equity options experience increased realized volatility, implied correlation, and prices. Higher implied volatilities such as those seen in Nvidia reflect market reactions to changing economic conditions, leading to a shift in the dynamics of the Fed put and requiring a reevaluation of options pricing.
Historical Comparisons and Market Expectations
Drawing parallels to historical market conditions like the late 90s, the podcast explores the implications of potential shifts in the Fed put and interest rate normalization on market volatility. It suggests that the Fed may be entering a tweaking cycle rather than a cutting cycle, implying a prolonged period of adjustment due to structural economic factors. This anticipated regime shift towards higher rates and increased volatility underscores the challenges the Fed faces in managing the economy and adjusting market expectations accordingly.
Josh and Michael tackle the continuation of rising yields and an equity rally, and why a higher floor should be expected for the for the VIX and interest rates.
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