Exploring military leaders in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger withdrawing from ECOWAS, backed by Russian mercenaries and strained relations with West African capitals. Discussion on the challenges against jihadist insurgencies, potential talks with militants, and risks of further coups in the Sahel region.

 In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Great Lakes director, Richard Moncrieff, to discuss the spike in violence in eastern Congo’s North Kivu province, where clashes between M23 rebels and government forces have intensified. They talk about the fight for Sake, a town just west of provincial capital Goma, the risk of the M23 marching on Goma and the worsening humanitarian crisis. They look at what’s behind Kinshasa’s pivot to southern Africa for support, escalating friction between the DR Congo and Rwanda over Kigali’s alleged support for the M23 and increasing polarisation in the region over the war. They look at the prospects of talks with the M23, a regional track involving Rwanda and other neighbours of the DR Congo and the role of Western governments that traditionally have close ties to Rwanda. For more on the topics discussed in this episode, visit our DRC country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Senior Iraq Analyst, Lahib Higel, to discuss the latest escalation between Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq and Syria and U.S. forces stationed in the region. They talk about the 29 January drone strike that killed three U.S. soldiers in a military base in Jordan and the U.S. retaliation against Iran-backed groups in Iraq, including a strike in Baghdad on 7 February that killed a senior commander from Kata’ib Hizbollah, which orchestrated the Jordan attack. They unpack the history of Kata’ib Hizbollah and other members of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, their relations with other Iraqi Shia paramilitaries, including those in the Hashd al Shaabi, or popular mobilisation forces, and Islamic Resistance strikes on U.S. forces since Hamas’s 7 October attack on Israel and Israel’s subsequent assault on Gaza. They talk about how much control Tehran has over the Iraqi groups. They also discuss what the escalation means for the role and presence of U.S. forces in Iraq. For more on the topics discussed in this episode, visit our Iraq country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Africa Director Murithi Mutiga to discuss Horn of Africa politics, including Ethiopia's push for sea access, Sudan’s war, Kenya’s regional role and Gulf rivalries playing out in the region. They talk about a recently announced deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland, the breakaway northern region of Somalia, that would see Ethiopia lease part of the Somaliland coast reportedly in exchange for Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland’s statehood. They discuss the reaction in Somalia, which rejects Somaliland independence, and whether anti-Ethiopian sentiment could strengthen Islamist militant group Al-Shabaab. They also talk about growing hostility between Ethiopia and Eritrea. They discuss increasing foreign involvement in Sudan’s war and the former paramilitary Rapid Support Forces’ advances. They touch on the regional role that Kenyan President William Ruto appears to aspire to and the evolving influence of Western powers, especially the U.S., in the Horn.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, visit our Horn of Africa regional page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia Director Olga Oliker to talk about recent developments in Ukraine and where things might be headed after almost two years of war. They discuss why Ukraine’s counteroffensive failed to break through Russian defences, whether a war of attrition now plays to Russia’s benefit and how it might shape Ukrainian and Russian politics. They also discuss signs that Ukraine’s Western backers could be wavering in their support, which has been critical to war efforts, and what a Trump presidency might mean for Kyiv. They also look at prospects for diplomacy in the year ahead. For more on the situation in Ukraine, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Ukraine country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Comfort Ero, Crisis Group's president, and CEO, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, discuss Crisis Group's '10 Conflicts to Watch in 2024'. They explore conflicts in Gaza, Sudan, Ukraine, Myanmar, Ethiopia, the Sahel, Haiti, Armenia-Azerbaijan, the Middle East, and the U.S.-China rivalry. They also touch on trends in conflict, U.S. elections, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the changing dynamics of U.S. influence, prospects for a peace deal in Ukraine, and the role of the U.S. in peace and diplomacy.

Israeli operations in Gaza and the danger of clashes with Hezbollah. Efforts by Palestinian factions to form a united front. Significance of killing a Hamas leader in Beirut. Risk of clashes between Hezbollah and Israel escalating. Destruction and humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Phases of operations in the war. Palestinian politics and reconciliation efforts. Creating a unified Palestinian front. Escalating tensions and strategic dilemmas. Updates on recent work and upcoming episodes.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Iran Project Director Ali Vaez to talk about Iran’s position on the war in Gaza and its advantages and drawbacks for Tehran. They look at Iran’s links with what it calls the “Axis of Resistance” – Hizbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen, as well as Palestinian militants including Hamas – and its strategy of using such groups to extend its influence in the region and as deterrence against attacks on Iran by its rivals. They also assess how the war has affected Iran’s nuclear ambitions, with its nuclear program ever more advanced and a potential nuclear crisis looming. They talk about Iran’s relations with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states and the prospects that diplomacy in the region can reduce risks of a wider war, either related to Gaza or Iran’s nuclear program.  For more analysis on the risks of U.S.-Iran escalation, check out our Q&A Understanding the Risks of U.S.-Iran Escalation amid the Gaza Conflict, as well as our Iran and Israel/Palestine pages. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert Richard Horsey to talk about the offensive launched by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, comprising three ethnic armed groups, that has made rapid advances against Myanmar’s military in northern Shan State. They talk about the offensive and what the various ethnic armed groups hope to gain. They look at the illicit economy along the northern border areas, China’s border management approach, Beijing’s policy and its worries about online scam centres in Myanmar’s east. They also talk about the resistance forces across Myanmar that emerged when the junta cracked down on post-coup protests, relations between those forces and the ethnic armed groups, and how they view the latest surge in fighting. They discuss Myanmar’s growing humanitarian needs and massive displacement over the past few years.For more analysis on the recent fighting in Myanmar, check out our Q&A A New Escalation of Armed Conflict in Myanmar and our Myanmar page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode, Crisis Group experts Tahani Mustafa and Heiko Wimmen, along with Daniel Levy, discuss the surge in settler attacks in the West Bank, escalating tensions at the Israel-Lebanon border, and hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza. They also assess the odds of an Israel-Hamas hostage deal, the U.S.'s role in halting the fighting, and prospects for restarting political talks between Israelis and Palestinians.