Hold Your Fire!

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia director Olga Oliker and senior Ukraine analyst Lucian Kim to discuss the latest developments in the Ukraine war. They talk about President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent visit to the U.S., what we know about his proposed “victory plan” and his efforts to ensure support from both sides of the aisle in Washington. They unpack the latest battlefield dynamics, including Ukraine’s Kursk offensive, Russia’s slow but steady gains in eastern Ukraine and the challenges both sides face in maintaining the war effort. They examine how the approaching winter and Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. They also discuss former U.S. president and Republican candidate Donald Trump’s claims that he can quickly end the war by striking a deal with Russian president Vladimir Putin and the idea gaining currency in Western capitals of making firmer commitments to Ukraine about its NATO membership. Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify. For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check our Ukraine country page and our visual explainer Ukraine War Map: Tracking the Frontlines. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard speaks to Crisis Group colleagues Christina Boutros, David Wood, Ali Vaez and Mairav Zonszein about Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon, Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel, how Israel might respond and whether the Biden administration can avert an all-out confrontation that would draw the U.S. in. Richard first discusses with David and Christina Israel’s bombardment and ground invasion of Lebanon, its humanitarian toll, whether Hezbollah will fight back and what Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s death could mean for the country’s politics and sectarian relations. Richard then talks with Ali about Iran’s motives for launching its ballistic missile attack on 1 October against Israel and how it might react to an Israeli strike. Finally, he talks to Mairav about how Israelis view the attack and the opportunities and risks that lie in pressing what appears to be Israel’s military advantage in Lebanon and against Iran directly.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest alert The U.S. Should Prevent All-out Israeli-Hizbollah War, our alert Staying the Guns of August: Avoiding All-out Regional War in the Middle East and our Middle East & North Africa page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mairav Zonszein, an expert in Middle Eastern affairs, joins Heiko Wimmen and Michael Hanna, specialists in conflict resolution and regional stability, to discuss Israel's intense military actions against Hizbollah. They explore whether both sides can pull back from the brink of all-out war and analyze Israel's military strategies and Hizbollah’s communication challenges. The trio also assesses the U.S. role in the conflict, especially in light of upcoming elections, and the complexities involved in navigating ceasefire negotiations in Gaza.

In the first episode of Hold Your Fire’s new season, Richard Atwood is joined by Richard Gowan, Crisis Group’s UN director, to speak about the UN General Assembly high-level week and the UN’s global role. They look at how the UN has responded to the Gaza war and conflict’s impact on politics and debates at the UN. They talk about the UN’s efforts in other conflicts, including Ukraine, Sudan and Haiti, and challenges UN peacekeepers and envoys face elsewhere. They also discuss efforts to reform UN institutions and strengthen multilateral diplomacy and the potential implications of the U.S. elections, particularly if former President Donald Trump prevails, for the world body. For more on the topics discussed in this episode check out our briefing Ten Challenges for the UN in 2024-2025, and our Updates from the UN General Assembly 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Israel expert Mairav Zonszein, Israel-Palestine director Rami Dajani and U.S. program director Michael Hanna to talk about the latest from Gaza, prospects for a ceasefire and the risks of all-out war between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. They discuss how the violence in Gaza has evolved and the recent Israeli strike aimed at killing a top Hamas commander that, according to the local authorities, killed scores of civilians in a designated safe zone. They talk about ceasefire negotiations, whether the two sides have softened their positions on the main stumbling blocks – Hamas’s rejecton of a short-term ceasefire entailing the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners without guarantees that such a truce would lead to a permanent end to hostilities; and Israel’s refusal to agree to end the war without further degrading Hamas – and what governance in Gaza looks like absent a deal. They also cover the risk of a full-scale war between Israel and Hizbollah.For more, check out our statement A Gaza Ceasefire and our Israel/Palestine country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Samina Ahmed, the South Asia project director at Crisis Group, dives into Pakistan's political storm, highlighting the tensions between Imran Khan and the military. She discusses Khan's surprising popularity even while incarcerated and his attempts to mend ties with the military amidst rising militant violence from the Pakistani Taliban. Additionally, they explore the escalating attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, the complex relationship with Afghanistan, and the delicate balance in Pakistan-India relations, emphasizing the need for political collaboration.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Finnish President and former Crisis Group trustee Alexander Stubb to talk about next week’s NATO summit, European security and the war in Ukraine. They assess Finland’s role as one of NATO’s newest members, Europe’s defence spending and preparedness and the future of the alliance as Washington’s attention shifts to the Asia Pacific. They talk about the war in Ukraine and what hope there is for a negotiated settlement. They discuss how Western capitals can counter perceptions of their double standards in much of the rest of the world and the challenges facing peacemaking and diplomacy in an era of big power competition and a more multipolar world order.For more, check out our recent podcast episodes Ukraine and European Security and U.S. Elections and the Future of Transatlantic Relations. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s senior Yemen analyst Ahmed Nagi to talk about the uptick in attacks by Houthi rebels on cargo ships in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean and the prospects for an escalation of the conflict both in Yemen and the broader region. They unpack what the Houthis are trying to achieve with the attacks, which the group has linked to the war in Gaza, and their relations with Iran and other members of the “axis of resistance”. They assess how effective the U.S. and UK-led military response has been in deterring Houthi strikes. They also discuss how the attacks on Red Sea shipping have affected the talks with Saudi Arabia that were underway in Yemen before 7 October, and whether the latest escalation could reignite the war in Yemen after a period of relative calm. They also reflect on how the Houthis might respond to an all-out war between Israel and the Lebanese group Hezbollah.   For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Q&A What Next After U.S. and UK Strikes on the Houthis? and our commentary The Gaza War Reverberates Across the Middle East. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia director Olga Oliker to talk about the latest from Ukraine, whether a negotiated settlement can be reached anytime soon and the future of European security. They discuss the Ukraine Summit of Peace in Switzerland and whether it met the expectations of Kyiv and other participants. They give an update on what is happening on the battlefield and prospects for a negotiated settlement to end the war. They also discuss Moscow’s and Kyiv’s demands, how they have evolved over the course of the war and what space exists for compromise. They talk about European security at large, the threat Western leaders see from Moscow and the deterrence value of Europe’s military build-up. For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our reports Ukraine: How to Hold the Line and A Fraught Path Forward for Ukraine’s Liberated Territories and our Q&A An Embattled Kyiv Looks for Aid in the Diplomatic Arena. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Türkiye/Cyprus project director Nigar Göksel to talk about Türkiye’s foreign policy, particularly in its neighbourhood. They discuss the fallout of the Gaza war for Türkiye’s relations with Israel and the U.S., and Ankara’s evolving relations with other countries in the Eastern Mediterranean, as well as the Gulf. They assess Türkiye’s balancing act in Ukraine: as a NATO member supplying weapons to Kyiv and keen to check Russian influence in the Black Sea but keeping ties open to Moscow. They discuss Ankara’s close relations with Azerbaijan, prospects for Turkish normalisation with Armenia and Russian and Iranian influence in the South Caucasus. They also talk about Türkiye’s operations against Kurdish militants in Iraq and Syria and how Iran views Ankara’s involvement in both countries. They examine whether the past few years represent a new phase in Turkish foreign policy under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our commentaries Türkiye’s Growing Drone Exports and The Gaza War Reverberates Across the Middle East as well as last year’s episode with Nigar Drones and Diplomacy: Will Türkiye’s Elections Change its Middle Power Activism? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.