Pakistan’s Political Standoff and Surging Militant Violence
Jul 12, 2024
auto_awesome
Samina Ahmed, the South Asia project director at Crisis Group, dives into Pakistan's political storm, highlighting the tensions between Imran Khan and the military. She discusses Khan's surprising popularity even while incarcerated and his attempts to mend ties with the military amidst rising militant violence from the Pakistani Taliban. Additionally, they explore the escalating attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, the complex relationship with Afghanistan, and the delicate balance in Pakistan-India relations, emphasizing the need for political collaboration.
Imran Khan's political resilience amidst military tensions highlights the evolving relationship between politics and military power in Pakistan.
The resurgence of militant violence, particularly from the Pakistani Taliban, complicates Pakistan's security landscape and regional relations.
Deep dives
Imran Khan's Political Resilience
Despite a significant crackdown by authorities, Imran Khan's party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), managed to secure a large number of parliamentary seats in the February elections. This success can be attributed to Khan's enduring popularity, which motivated a robust voter turnout. Disillusionment with the traditional political parties further bolstered PTI's appeal, prompting the electorate to support a party perceived as a fresh alternative. The effective use of social media by PTI also played a critical role in mobilizing support, allowing the party to maintain visibility and engagement despite increased restrictions.
Military-Political Dynamics
Imran Khan initially rose to power with the military's support, but his subsequent fallout led to his political decline. Although he currently employs anti-military rhetoric to galvanize his base, he recognizes the necessity of re-establishing ties with the military to regain political influence. This complicated relationship highlights the military's significant role in Pakistan's political landscape and raises questions about Khan's path to redemption. The ongoing tensions and Khan’s attempts to mend fences with military leaders suggest that the dynamics of power in Pakistan’s politics remain intricate and volatile.
Soaring Violence in Border Regions
Pakistan has witnessed a troubling resurgence of violence, particularly in border regions connecting to Afghanistan, largely attributed to the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) and other militant groups. The TTP, while having been largely ousted in the past, has re-emerged as a formidable threat, responsible for a high frequency of militant attacks and resulting casualties. Authorities largely attribute this violence to the safe havens the TTP enjoy in Afghanistan, complicating Pakistan's security situation. As violence escalates, Pakistan's military has indicated a renewed focus on anti-militant operations, amidst rising concern about security and civilian safety.
Challenges in Civil-Military Relations
Pakistan’s military continues to significantly influence the country's security and foreign policy, but there appears to be a shifting dynamic regarding its direct involvement in politics. The absence of military coups in recent years signifies a fragile yet hopeful democratic transition, with growing resistance to military rule among the populace. Political parties have increasingly recognized the need for cooperation, suggesting a potential shift toward a more stable civil-military equilibrium. However, the apparent fragility of this relationship indicates that challenges remain in navigating the interplay between political ambitions and military oversight.
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!,Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s South Asia project director Samina Ahmed to talk about the fallout from the February elections in Pakistan, the deteriorating security in Pakistan’s border regions and Islamabad's relations with Pakistan’s neighbours. They unpack what’s behind the enduring popularity of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, and their standoff with the country’s political and military establishment. They discuss Khan’s efforts to repair his relations with the military, the legal cases levelled against him and the near-term chances of his release from jail. They also talk about the uptick in militant attacks in Pakistan’s border regions, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, claimed in part by the Pakistani Taliban, links between that group and the Afghan Taliban, and the strained relations between Islamabad and the authorities in Kabul. Lastly, they touch upon Pakistan’s evolving relations with India.