Will Israel’s Bombing Start an All-out War or Force Hizbollah Back from the Border?
Sep 25, 2024
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Mairav Zonszein, an expert in Middle Eastern affairs, joins Heiko Wimmen and Michael Hanna, specialists in conflict resolution and regional stability, to discuss Israel's intense military actions against Hizbollah. They explore whether both sides can pull back from the brink of all-out war and analyze Israel's military strategies and Hizbollah’s communication challenges. The trio also assesses the U.S. role in the conflict, especially in light of upcoming elections, and the complexities involved in navigating ceasefire negotiations in Gaza.
Israel's intensified military operations against Hezbollah aim to restore security, but risk escalating into a broader regional conflict.
Hezbollah's restrained response to Israeli aggression reflects its strategic calculations to avoid provoking an all-out war, despite internal pressures.
Deep dives
Escalation of Military Actions
Israel has intensified its military operations against Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, significantly elevating tensions along the northern border. The Israeli government has stated that the objective is to restore security and enable displaced residents to return home. Recent Israeli tactics included a series of airstrikes targeting Hezbollah positions and suspected weapon storage locations, resulting in substantial casualties, including civilians. As Israel escalates its attacks, concerns mount regarding the potential for a broader conflict that could involve regional players, notably Iran.
Hezbollah's Strategic Calculations
Hezbollah's response to Israeli aggression has been notably restrained, raising questions about the group's strategic calculations. Despite significant military pressure from Israel, Hezbollah has thus far avoided retaliating with its more advanced missile capabilities. This restraint may stem from a desire to protect its strength and avoid provocation of an all-out war, which could severely weaken the organization. However, the lack of a strong response is causing unrest among Hezbollah's supporters, who may demand more decisive action.
U.S. Diplomatic Efforts and Challenges
The U.S. administration has faced difficulties in dealing with the ongoing conflict, particularly regarding the lack of a viable ceasefire. U.S. officials have sought to prevent the escalation of violence but have failed to create a diplomatic pathway that addresses the situation on both the Gaza and Lebanese fronts. With the approaching U.S. elections, the administration's inability to resolve the crisis has become politically precarious, complicating its foreign policy agenda. Some officials argue that the U.S. must recalibrate its approach, acknowledging the limitations of its leverage over Israel.
Domestic and Regional Implications of Continued Conflict
The ramifications of the ongoing conflict extend beyond immediate military confrontations, affecting domestic sentiments within Israel and geopolitical dynamics in the region. The Israeli public is reportedly divided, with some expressing support for military actions against Hezbollah while others worry about the broader implications of escalation. Netanyahu's government faces scrutiny over its handling of the situation, particularly as pressures mount regarding the war in Gaza. As military engagements continue, the potential for regional instability remains high, with various factions watching closely and preparing for their next moves.
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein, Heiko Wimmen and Michael Hanna about the intensified Israeli strikes on Hizbollah militants in Lebanon and whether both sides can still step back from the brink of all-out war. They unpack calculations on both sides, why Israel has ramped up attacks recently and why Hizbollah hasn’t yet responded more forcefully. They discuss what an escalation into a full-scale war would mean for both countries and the region. They also assess Washington’s role as the U.S. heads toward presidential elections, its failed efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and whether it can prevent a wider escalation absent one.