The OMFIF Podcast

Max Castelli, head of strategy for sovereign institutions, and Philipp Salman, director of strategy for sovereign institutions at UBS Asset Management, join Yara Aziz, senior economist at OMFIF, to discuss how shifting geopolitics shaped reserve management in 2025, and what sovereign investors should watch for in 2026. They cover the macro outlook, longer-term portfolio strategy, US concentration risk and the debate around the dollar’s role in reserves.

In the coming year, renewed attention should be made to explore how governments can shift from simply spending more to spending smarter. Drawing on new insights from the International Monetary Fund and fresh empirical work from OMFIF and EY, we examine why productive public investment remains elusive, what distinguishes high-performing public institutions and how fiscal policies can better support high-productive investment.   Mark MacDonald, global public finance management leader at EY, and Galen Sheer, senior economist, fiscal affairs at the IMF, join Andrea Correa, senior economist at OMFIF, to unpack the practical reforms finance ministries can take, from improving allocative and technical efficiency to building credible evaluation systems, and offer next steps that policy-makers can act on immediately to drive better long-term outcomes.

Sovereign debt scholar Anna Gelpern, Scott K. Ginsburg professor of law and international finance at Georgetown University, joins Mark Sobel, US chair at OMFIF, to discuss the theory of the case for debt transparency, the need for more and better public debt disclosure and the impact of poor disclosure on low-income countries and emerging markets.    Gelpern also explores ideas on how to tackle the challenge, and shares an update on the Sovereign Debt Forum's Public Debt Is Public project with Georgetown’s Massive Data Institute.

Jeremy Cunningham, an investment director at Capital Group with deep expertise in fixed income markets, dives into the dynamics of European sovereign debt. He discusses the recent stabilization of inflation and the European Central Bank's neutral rates. The intriguing BTP–OAT repricing highlights fiscal improvements in Italy against French risks. Cunningham also examines how EU's expansion as a AAA issuer is reshaping credit structures and the implications of creating a euro safe asset, predicting a future of tighter sovereign spreads.

Dennis Shen, chair of the Macroeconomic Council at Scope Ratings, shares insights on the global economic outlook for 2026. He discusses the potential risks of inflation, geopolitical tensions, and the challenges facing major economies like the U.S., China, and Europe. Shen warns about U.S. fiscal deficits influencing Federal Reserve policies and assesses China's efforts to navigate its housing crisis. He also emphasizes the need for caution in European fiscal limits and highlights systemic vulnerabilities in financial markets, driven by high valuations and non-bank leverage.

In 2015, almost 200 countries signed the Paris agreement in a landmark commitment to limit the impact of global warming. Ten years on, Rahul Ghosh, global head of sustainable finance at Moody’s Ratings, and Umar Ashfaq, research director for the Americas at the MSCI Institute, join Sarah Moloney, editorial director at OMFIF, to examine how much progress has been made in the decade since and whether there is still a place for such international agreements in a more divided world.

Stablecoins are dominating the headlines and policy-makers are responding rapidly. The instruments, though once primarily used as a trading pair for crypto-assets, are rapidly gaining a foothold in cross-border payments where their speed and low cost make them an attractive alternative in some corridors. Eyes are also on their potential adoption for wholesale settlement.    Thibault Pelé, head of product for digital currency at Worldline, joins Lewis McLellan, head of content at OMFIF's Digital Monetary Institute, to discuss the evolving uses of stablecoins and the promise this instrument shows in reshaping money.    

Join Andrew Kleine, a managing director at EY with expertise in outcome-based budgeting, and Adam Chepenik, a government and public sector principal at EY, as they navigate the challenges governments face in delivering public services with limited resources. They discuss the shift to outcome-based budgeting, making fiscal decisions relatable for citizens, and essential strategies for managing fiscal crises. Andrew and Adam emphasize innovative solutions like AI and long-term planning to enhance financial resilience. Tune in for a deep dive into more sustainable public financial management!

Zha Wenting, a Senior Digital Transformation Specialist and Director of On-chain Finance at Huawei, dives into the world of on-chain cash. She explains the impact of CBDCs, stablecoins, and tokenized deposits on business and finance. Wenting discusses the potential for private stablecoins to facilitate wholesale transactions and outlines the necessary infrastructure for mass adoption. She also highlights new commercial models made possible by on-chain cash, showcasing Huawei's pivotal role in shaping this digital finance landscape.

David Marsh, Chairman of OMFIF and author, dives deep into Europe’s precarious geopolitical landscape. He examines Germany's energy blunders with Russia and the evolution of Franco-German relations, highlighting rising tensions and electoral shifts. Marsh critiques the ECB's dual role of promoting unity and sowing division, while outlining Europe’s six structural challenges. He suggests that Europe must embrace a project-based approach to cooperation and reflects on the continent’s future resilience through potential US partnerships.