Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

Tragedy hit the once-marginalized psephological community last week when FiveThirtyEight closed shop. Henry hosts a celebration of life with two of its top contributors, Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley, to discuss the former outfit's inconceivable achievement of mainstreaming political data journalism. The trio digs into the explosive history of innovative election modeling and explores the lingering unknowns while looking to the future for a field tasked with telling the human story behind complicated quantifications.

Henry and The Cook Political Report's Amy Walter reconvene after Donald Trump's address before Congress. They wonder how Tuesday's performance will play with the voters outside Trump's base who won him the election; consider the risks attendant to his coalition in making moves on Ukraine and tariffs; and think through partisan mandate strategy in a country with a teeter-totter electorate. Plus, they look to 2026 and beyond to speculate on who might help the flat-footed opposition regain its balance.

To have any attachment to conservatism since the Reagan renewal is to have at least a glancing acquaintanceship with the Heritage Foundation. Under its current president, Kevin Roberts, that pivotal institution is shifting gears to settle this century's conservative-populist synthesis. Kevin and Henry sit down to dive into Roberts' new book, Dawn's Early Light: Taking Back Washington to Save America. Along with making the serious case for the promised Golden Age, the two discuss the spiritual war that's facing the country, institutional control burns, and the debate over America the Idea versus America the Nation.

Germany's parliamentary elections will take place on Sunday, and for the first time since the fall of the Third Reich, a nationalist party is a major player. To start, Henry breaks down the rules of the game and assesses the polling for the many parties in the mix. Next, he's joined by Katja Hoyer to discuss the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party's stunning rise along with a deep dive into the factions within that will vie for control of Deutschland's now-second largest party. And if you're looking for analysis as the returns come in on Sunday, be sure to check out Henry's live stream which you can watch on X! (You'll find it at @henryolsenEPPC.)Music for this week:Open: Beethoven – Symphony No. 9 (Finale ‘Ode to Joy’), via Spat MusicClose: America the Beautiful — Simon Armitage Music, via MotionArray

Despite the kerfuffle that President Trump is initiating a Constitutional crisis, the confusion and frustration surrounding his executive actions fit within a fairly common modern trend: Congress’s institutional inaction leaves a power vacuum which the president sets out to fill. In anticipation of the Supreme Court weighing in, Henry sits down with the inestimable John Yoo to discuss the larger constitutional questions that Trump’s test cases are likely to settle. Tune in for a refresher on the distinction between the separation of powers and checks and balances; an explanation of the unitary executive theory; and considerations on how justices may come down on the decisions that will be put before them.

Conventional wisdom has it that the Democratic Party lost in November after moving too far to the left on its social and economic stances. But these are hardly conventional times, so why not let an outsider have a say? Henry sits down with Maurice Mitchell, National Director of the Working Families Party, to discuss the WFP’s aim to win elections by offering a progressive alternative to the corporate-aligned Democratic Party. Maurice takes us through the WFP’s break with Democrats in 1998 and its 26-year history; he points out the attention they’ve achieved nationwide and the obstacles they’ve faced in a rigid two-party system. Further, he disputes the calls for centrism following Kamala Harris’s defeat and illustrates how the Working Families Party platform has a future in a country hungry for change.

A quarter century after publishing his famous book about the ascendant bohemian bourgeoise ("Bobo") upper class, New York Times columnist David Brooks has found cause to reconsider the new elite. He and Henry sit down to discuss the vanities of that insular group, the incongruence of their public espousals and private behavior, and how some form of nationalist populism was the public's best available means of course correction.

Sean Trende, Senior Elections Analyst at RealClearPolitics and author of The Lost Majority, dives deep into America’s shifting political landscape. He reveals how Trump's 'revolution in common sense' reshaped conservative values and the challenges he faces uniting diverse factions. Trende also discusses the Democrats' uphill battle with a progressive base that struggles to connect with moderate voters. Additionally, he highlights surprising trends in minority voter support, revealing evolving party dynamics and implications for future elections.

Karl Rove, a Wall Street Journal columnist and Fox News contributor, discusses the importance of building temporary coalitions in politics. He reflects on his role in the Republican Party's evolution, from lessons learned during McKinley’s era to the Compassionate Conservatism of the early 2000s. Rove emphasizes the working-class appeal of recent movements and shares insights on navigating leadership in a polarized political climate. The conversation highlights the need for bipartisanship and effective communication to adapt to future challenges.

Beyond the Polls is back! This week, Henry sits down with the Washington Post's Jason Willick to go over Donald Trump's haul ahead of his second inauguration. The duo speculates on everything from the president-elect's comments about desired new territories, defense aspirations, and tariffs, before considering how all of this fits with the MAGA coalition and how his maneuvers will play with the judiciary that Trump helped build in term one. Plus, Henry surveys the electorate's sentiments on presidents past and present as laid out in the latest Economist/YouGov poll.