Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

Federal employees may be out of the office indefinitely, but politics breaks for no one in America. So Henry is back with a rant to keep us up on the unsettled terrain that partisans are clamouring over. He looks into how the government shutdown blame game might play out; he dives into the latest Economist/YouGov public opinion data to disentangle the issues that animate partisans and moderates; and then leaves the drama of Washington aside to check in on the approaching races in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City.

The great trouble with contemporary polling comes down to drawing a representative analysis from one-word responses. It's not just polling sceptics that have noticed this limitation, which is why Scott Rasmussen of the Napolitan Institute teamed up with Yasmin Green, CEO of Google AI incubator Jigsaw, to create the We the People project ahead of our nation's 250th birthday. The initiative incorporates chatbot technology to draw Americans from all 435 congressional districts into a conversation that allows them to voice their nuanced takes on American politics and to add substance to their stances.  Henry sits down with the duo to hear more about the just-launched program to hear more about the exciting program and the good news that has emerged from their early findings.

If you've ever been of the habit this time of year to watch primetime professional football, you will have certainly encountered today's guest, Michele Tafoya. What you may not have known was that she was an astute observer of American politics. Now, with the NBC Sunday Night Football days behind her, Michele hosts her own podcast to discuss the matters she once had to keep off the field. Michele sat down with Henry to discuss her political awakening and conversion to conservatism; her frustrations with what the DFL has done to her beloved Minnesota; and the nudges she receives to throw her hat in the ring as a candidate.

The game has changed, and it's time to throw out the old playbook. So asserts Chris Hayes, host of  MSNBC's "All In with Chris Hayes," in his latest book, The Sirens' Call: How Attention Became the World's Most Endangered Resource. He and Henry sat down on Wednesday to discuss the most fought-after commodity of the Digital Age: attention. They explore how our sleek modern tools have altered the way campaigns are executed, and why the political winners of this century will be those who can wield the gadgets of the future while possessing the ancient charisma that moves the people.

Norwegian polls close on Monday, and a whopping 10 parties are vying to expand their share of the 169 seats in the nation's parliamentary body, the Storting. Nils Andresen of Minerva, Norway's conservative periodical, joins Henry to discuss the tightening race between the dominant Red-Green and Civic Bloc coalitions, as well as the internal shuffling among their constituents. Tune in for a survey of the Labour Party's late recovery and the rise of the right-populist Progress Party, along with commentary on the smaller players, such as the reconstruction efforts of the formerly-Maoist Red Party, the coalition shift of the agrarian Centre Party, and the objective of the independent Patient Focus.

There's no denying that Democrats are in hot water after Donald Trump's surprising big win last November. The Brookings Institution's William Galston considers the party's oft-mentioned "disarray" to be exactly what one ought to expect under the circumstances. With many years of political advising under his belt and a cool head primed for strategic thinking, he chats with Henry about the Democratic Party's advantage heading into the midterms, the leadership vacuum, and the question of whether moderates will prevail in the near future.

Texas has fired the first shots of the redistricting war of 2025, so Henry's back with a rant for all who are still a tad confused, either by the controversy as it stands and/or where it's headed now that other states are drafting their own battle plans. Tune in for a detailed analysis of various states' statutes and cartographic reserves ahead of potential gerrymanders; essential data inputs to make sense of President Trump's approval rating; and a close look at the races that will determine control of that other legislative chamber.

A decade has passed since Donald Trump rode down the golden escalator to initiate a movement to make America great again, but conflicts within the coalition emerge like clockwork, proving that a definitive interpretation remains elusive. Is MAGA simply the net effect of Donald Trump's musings and maneuvers? Or is there a core ideology that successors carry on when Trump exits and the realignment settles? Josh Hammer joins Henry today to answer these big-picture questions and to propose the essential intermediate-term considerations.

Depending on who's in power, blatantly partisan redistricting may be derided as the ultimate dirty ploy or defended as a practical measure to cultivate fairer representation. The recent effort to carve out a few more safe Republican districts in Texas has set off blue state governors, with some preparing to "go nuclear." To help get our bearings amid proliferation threats, Henry brings back Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball for a deep assessment of how an escalating redistricting war might play out. Plus, they take note of a handful of new Senate contestants that might shake up the races in key swing states.

The president's approval rating is down some, and given the amount on his plate this month, it's hard to pin down exactly what's driving it. Today, Henry considers the effects of the piling matters of import, including lingering interest in the Jeffrey Epstein case, the "One Big Beautiful Bill," deportations, and Trump's fight with the Federal Reserve; he breaks down the balancing act of appeals to the political base against converts and independents, and puts the approval rating numbers in context of their midterm implications. Additionally, he examines the latest fundraising numbers to provide a glimpse into how some congressional races are developing. Beyond the Polls is off next week, but we'll be back in early August!