Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

Dive into the surprising outcomes of the recent election with a focus on Donald Trump's unique presidency. Explore the shifting dynamics among Latino voters who leaned towards Trump, influenced by economic and immigration issues. The discussion reveals a potential realignment in American politics as traditional narratives are challenged. Don't miss insights into the evolving political landscape, upcoming debates, and how global elections can reflect changing democratic trends. It's an intriguing mix of analysis and predictions for both voters and parties!

Henry’s guest for the final pre-election episode of the season has covered political campaigns for quite some time. But he’s never seen anything like the election we’re looking at today. Brit Hume and Henry discuss how the game has changed since they started: covering everything from the new media landscape, marked by a turn from the standard of neutrality to polling in the age of models, along with the fiercely divided electorate and these once-unimaginable candidates. Plus, Henry rants his way through all the swing states to make as plain as possible the complicated rules and regulations, procedures and peculiarities that will affect the Election Day result rollout. And he does a lightning-fast ad roundup of the ultra-close House races in Colorado 8, Pennsylvania 10, Arizona 1, and Michigan 10 to consider whether they might push the needle just over the edge. Happy Election Day, everyone!

The Harris Campaign is pulling out all the stops to edge out Donald Trump in what looks set to be the closest election since 2000. Lately, these efforts have concentrated on energizing enthusiasm among black voters. To discuss the alleged inroads made by Republicans with this group and to consider whether Democrats can hold onto their usual 90+ percent hold, Henry is joined by his pal Eugene Robinson, Pulitzer Prize winning columnist of the Washington Post. They also take a couple of pit stops in the past to assess, on the one hand, Donald Trump's unique talents, and on the other, what Joe Biden might do to assist his vice president's bid. Plus, Henry dives into the early vote returns and lays out what we can and can't know based on the models; and he takes a look at two dueling ads out of Florida that aim to sway voters for and against the state's abortion ballot initiative.

Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida and an expert on early voting, shares his insights on the early voting landscape. He discusses the historical evolution of early voting and its impact on electoral strategies, especially for Democrats and Republicans. The conversation delves into ballot security concerns, polling data, and outreach efforts to engage Black voters. Additionally, McDonald highlights the intricacies of mail-in voting and the variations in regulations across swing states as election season heats up.

Craig Gilbert, a Fellow at Marquette Law School and a Milwaukee Journal Sentinel columnist, dives into the whirlwind of Wisconsin politics. He discusses the fascinating mix of Obama-Trump voters and anti-Trump Republicans shaping the state's electoral landscape. They analyze the narrow Senate race and the GOP’s clever voter ID strategy. Additionally, the conversation touches on innovative political ads designed to engage key demographics, including young women, and how candidates are adapting to resonate with independent voters.

Gerard Baker, Editor at large of The Wall Street Journal, delves into J.D. Vance's debate performance and its implications for post-Trump populism. He and Henry analyze how both Trump and Harris can engage undecided voters through starkly different tactics. The conversation shifts to potential October surprises, examining events impacting voter sentiment, and the significance of political ads in shaping narratives around candidates like Dave McCormick. The duo underscores the intricate relationship between political dynamics and current crises.

Selena Zito joins Henry today to talk about the all-important Keystone State. They discuss the voter sentiment shift that occurred between Obama's ten-point win in 2008 and Trump's narrow victory in 2016. They home in on the counties that will decide who takes Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes, and consider how Kamala Harris's slight lead in the polls might be overstated. Plus, Henry dives into the early voting numbers thus far. Is much ado being made about just a little? Tune in for big answers!

Kamala Harris, the Vice President of the United States, discusses how debate performances now influence tight presidential races differently. She argues a small victory in a debate could sway crucial voter opinions. Election analyst Kyle Kondik joins to analyze key House and Senate races, exploring hypothetical scenarios around narrow wins for both Trump and Harris. The conversation digs into voter polarization in swing states and the dynamics of recent campaign strategies, including an ad targeting Independents in Maryland.

Upon gaining the Democratic Party's nomination, Kamala Harris's favorability rating surged from below her boss's historic low to nearly 50 percent today. But did the swell come too soon? Fox News Radio analyst and Editor-in-Chief of Jewish Insider Josh Kraushaar joins to discuss the post-convention slump, along with a review of how the lingering war in Gaza and unsettling chatter from extreme partisans might affect the Jewish vote in November.Plus, Henry gives special attention to a recent piece by Patrick Rufini about overestimated margins in past elections that could help us spot potential polling errors. And he takes a look at a couple of ads out of Michigan 8: Kristen McDonald Rivet's quirky tax-cutter introduction ad and challenger Paul Junge's spot to define her on radical social positions.

Since the 2020 election, American political observers have heard a great deal about voter fraud. But media coverage tends to either enthusiastically endorse or vehemently dismiss the accusations without parsing out the details of what’s being alleged. Today’s guest, Arizona elections analyst Garrett Archer, takes us through the process that occurs between your submitting a ballot and its tallying. He and Henry get into the weeds on everything from signature verification and speculation about machine hacking, to late-night swings and the canvassing process, along with why it takes so long to count the votes. Plus, Henry delves into RFK Jr.’s withdrawal from the race and considers who stands to gain. And he takes a close look at two ads—one for Republican Rob Bresnahan of Northeastern Pennsylvania and another for Democrat Hillary Scholten of West Michigan—who both make deft appeals to swing voters in districts where the candidates’ party hardly enjoys a firm majority.