The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence

The $1.7 trillion private credit market faces several challenges after years of rapid growth, according Ana Arsov, global head of private credit at Moody’s Ratings. “It’s going to be very important to get more transparency from the banks about is there some kind of synthetic leverage, additional leverage, coming to this market,” Arsov tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst David Havens in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Arsov and Havens also debate the impact of exchange-traded funds and broader implications of private debt stress. “It just doesn’t seem like the risk-transmission mechanism is nearly as potent in the way that private credit is structured today, as it has been in maybe some other areas that have caused systemic problems in the past,” says Havens.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Matt Mish, head of credit strategy at UBS, joins Bloomberg's James Crombie and senior analyst Julie Hung to dissect the impact of the US election on credit markets. Mish predicts that a Kamala Harris victory would favor bonds in basic industries and utilities due to support for existing stimulus policies. On the flip side, he warns that a Democratic win could hinder tech and telecom debt. They also discuss the outlook for US consumers, the stress in private credit markets, and the potential positives for energy and defense under a Trump presidency.

Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, joins Bloomberg News reporter James Crombie and credit analyst Jody Lurie to delve into the complexities of commercial real estate debt. They discuss how Goldman is capitalizing on opportunities in commercial mortgage-backed securities amid market challenges. The trio also weighs the outlook for retail and leisure sectors, particularly considering the pressures on lower-income consumers. Insightful perspectives on risk management and credit analysis strategies are shared.

Jimmy Levin, chief investment officer at Sculptor Capital Management, joins Bloomberg contributors James Crombie and Irene Garcia Perez, along with credit analyst Stephane Kovatchev. They discuss striking opportunities in funding companies with unsustainable debt loads, viewing it as the best chance in corporate credit recently. Levin highlights expected growth in asset-based finance and potential double-digit returns. The panel also evaluates the resilience of U.S. consumers and the outlook for debt in cyclical industries amid fluctuating interest rates.

Norinchukin Bank faces significant losses from the sale of US and European sovereign bonds that tumbled as interest rates rose, and other financial institutions may also be exposed. “The bank is still losing more than a billion dollars a quarter,” says Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst Pri de Silva, referring to the Japanese agricultural bank also known as Nochu. “They need to rip that band aid off and address negative carry in the securities portfolio,” de Silva tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie in the latest Credit Edge podcast. De Silva also weighs the outlook for Asia’s Additional Tier 1 bond market, where risk premia are shrinking as supply evaporates. Also in this episode, Mary Ellen Olson, senior credit analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses the turnaround at India’s Vedanta, which may tap the US dollar bond market, as well as the impact of China’s economic slowdown on Asian miners. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lending to law firms against portfolios of legal assets can generate hefty returns, according to North Wall Capital, the London-based credit investor. “We target 25%-plus IRRs, and we have historically outperformed that,” Fabian Chrobog, its chief investment officer and founder, says in Bloomberg Intelligence’s Credit Edge podcast. Separately, North Wall aims to make “mid teens” gains in middle-market private credit, Chrobog tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and BI senior credit analyst Tolu Alamutu. Also in this episode, Chrobog and Alamutu discuss creditor protections, real estate opportunity and the advantages of geographical diversification. “I can see the returns in the US decreasing while I can see still some really interesting opportunities in Europe,” says Chrobog. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AllianceBernstein sees opportunity in European and emerging market credit markets and is steering clear of energy sector debt. “High-quality European high yield, on a dollar-hedged basis, is attractive,” Will Smith, director of U.S. high-yield credit at AllianceBernstein, says in the latest Credit Edge podcast from Bloomberg Intelligence. In EM corporate bonds, “you’re getting paid a lot more risk premium there — a lot more in spreads than you are in developed market credit markets,” Smith tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst Spencer Cutter. Smith and Cutter also discuss relative value and risks in oil and gas company debt. “Your antenna goes off when energy companies start returning capital to shareholders,” says Smith. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this engaging discussion, senior analysts Stephen Flynn and Aidan Cheslin from Bloomberg Intelligence join contributor James Crombie. They explore the potential for debt tightening among cruise line giants like Carnival and Royal Caribbean, along with insights on automotive companies like Rolls-Royce and Ford. The trio highlights the credit challenges facing Disney and geopolitical risks affecting credit confidence. With a keen eye on macroeconomic trends, they dissect how fragile valuations could lead to rapid market shifts.

Alan McKnight, CIO at Regions Bank, discusses rising default risks for small-cap US companies, especially non-earners, facing debt refinancing challenges. Stress on low-income consumer companies is noted. Opportunities in industrial and defense sectors are explored, with a focus on major borrowers like Honeywell and Lockheed Martin.

Tim Lyne, CEO of Antares Capital, discusses the firm's expansion plans in Europe and interest in real estate and infrastructure. He touches on funding strategy, market stress, fundraising, and the increasing diversity of private credit investors. The podcast explores the risks and growth of the private credit market, strategies for minimizing risks, expansion into European markets, geographical diversification in fundraising, and worries about financial outlook.