The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence

TJ Durkin, Head of Structured Credit and Specialty Finance at TPG Angelo Gordon, discusses the booming opportunities in home equity borrowing as homeowners capitalize on rising real estate prices. He predicts a staggering $150 to $200 billion in annual origination, highlighting the shift towards asset-based finance. The conversation touches on the evolution of structured finance, the challenges facing private debt, and emerging trends in commercial real estate and residential solar energy. Durkin emphasizes new strategies and regulatory impacts shaping the future of lending.

David Rosenberg, head of liquid performing credit at Oaktree Capital Management, shares his expertise on credit markets and investment strategies. He predicts a boom in private credit for troubled companies due to high interest rates, highlighting rescue financing opportunities. The discussion also covers the anticipated surge in mergers and acquisitions and contrasts U.S. and European investment landscapes. Rosenberg emphasizes the need for strategic credit analysis and navigating challenges amid economic shifts and geopolitical risks.

Sustainable finance can keep growing despite potential headwinds from the next US administration, according to Nikko Asset Management. “If the political side is not asking for disclosure on strategies and updates on ESG, we as portfolio managers have to ask,” said Holger Mertens, Nikko’s head of global credit, referring to environmental, social and governance standards. “It’s our job to make sure we’re buying assets at the right price,” Mertens tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst Tolu Alamutu in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Mertens and Alamutu also discuss ESG debt returns, energy transition, issuance forecasts and real estate risks such as stranded assets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US economy heading for a potentially “turbulent landing” may spell trouble for junk bonds, according to Colleen Cunniffe, head of global taxable credit research at Vanguard. “We’re actually relatively cautious on high yield at the moment from a broad perspective,” Cunniffe tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Himanshu Bakshi in the latest Credit Edge podcast. The world’s second-largest asset manager prefers debt rated BBB, bonds from utilities and banks, as well as asset-backed securities in the auto sector. Cunniffe and Bakshi also discuss commercial mortgage-backed securities, the impact of consumer stress on bank asset quality and emerging markets. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Randy Schwimmer, vice chairman at Churchill Asset Management, shares his expertise in middle-market lending, touting it as a prime opportunity in credit markets with double-digit yields. He discusses the limited competition among lenders, emphasizing the hidden value in these loans. Additionally, Schwimmer highlights trends in loan margins, the impact of elevated interest rates, and the evolving landscape of private credit, detailing how these factors shape investment strategies and opportunities in a dynamic economic environment.

Delve into the vibrant world of active management, where conventional wisdom meets cutting-edge strategies. Discover how active management is thriving, especially within ETFs and mutual funds. Learn about ongoing growth trends and the evolving landscape of investment opportunities. Experts share their insights on navigating this dynamic industry, shedding light on the capabilities of active managers. It’s a treasure trove of knowledge for both seasoned investors and those new to the game.

Jonny Fine, the Global Head of Investment Grade Debt at Goldman Sachs, discusses the anticipated surge in high-grade US corporate bond issuance in 2025, fueled by economic growth and refinancing needs. He elaborates on the role of private credit and its impact on traditional financing, as well as the expected dynamics from regulatory changes. Fine and his co-hosts explore how infrastructure finance and increasing M&A activity will contribute to market momentum, alongside the influence of rising interest rates on consumer behavior and capital markets.

Mohit Mittal, Chief Investment Officer at PIMCO, shares insights on the vulnerabilities in private credit, cautioning that current returns don't justify the increasing risks. He emphasizes the deteriorating fundamentals in leveraged credit markets, urging careful strategies. Alongside analyst Steve Flynn, they explore the telecom and cable sectors, discussing potential consolidation and strategies within a challenging economic landscape. Their conversation highlights the need for high-quality investments and the potential pitfalls in today's fragile market.

Michelle Russell-Dowe, co-head of private debt and credit alternatives at Schroders Capital, shares her expertise on the booming private debt market. She discusses the influx of investors diversifying away from public markets and highlights attractive opportunities in commercial and residential real estate. Russell-Dowe emphasizes the importance of recognizing emotional biases in investment decisions and the essential role of understanding market inefficiencies. The conversation also touches on emerging investors like retail and family offices entering private credit.

Rob Horn, Global Head of Infrastructure and Asset-Based Credit at Blackstone, shares insights on the booming private credit market, projected to reach $30 trillion. He highlights the advantages of hard-asset collateral in securing premium returns. Tolu Alamutu, a senior credit analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses trends in European real estate and credits. Despite geopolitical risks, he maintains a positive outlook for residential markets. The conversation also explores investment opportunities in digital infrastructure and the growing appeal of single-family rentals.