Manifold

Steve and John discuss the Investor Choice Problem, parallels between derivatives and insurance markets, and building Fermat Capital. They explore catastrophe bonds, market dynamics, and the future of the industry amidst climate change impacts.

CEO Molson Hart shares insights on entrepreneurship in China, Amazon's dominance, and future competition. Discusses IQ limitations, cultural transformations in China, and advice for aspiring entrepreneurs. Explores challenges of selling on Amazon, strategies for growth, and personal experiences in China.

Billionaire computer programmer Jaan Tallinn discusses AI risks, investments, and AGI with Steve. Topics include AGI excitement, AI capabilities, safety measures, cybersecurity threats, global cultural narratives on AI, and future directions in reducing AI extinction risk.

Glenn Luk, an experienced investor and startup founder, discusses China's economic evolution, high speed rail success, and future prospects. Topics include China's GDP, entrepreneurship, economic policies, cultural comparisons with the US, consumer behavior, and demographic influences. The conversation also delves into the financial sustainability of China's high-speed rail network and its transition towards advanced technology and manufacturing.

Casey Handmer, founder of Terraform Industries, discusses creating natural gas from sunlight and air, challenges in tech entrepreneurship, solar energy impact, the future of energy, navigating carbon neutrality, and upcoming milestones in the podcast.

Hedge fund investor Russell Clark discusses Japan, China, and USD reserve status. Topics include China property bubble, global reserve currency challenges, long-term Japanese and Chinese economies, inflation observations, and more

The podcast delves into the world of prediction markets with the co-founder of Manifold Markets, covering topics such as the play money advantage for user engagement, simplifying prediction markets, revenue streams, legal challenges, and the future of user predictions. Additionally, it explores custom betting markets, revenue models, unique show transformations, and insights on tech enthusiasts in London and San Francisco.

Former CIA analyst Ray McGovern discusses JFK assassination, Hunter Biden's laptop, deep state in Ukraine, and strategic implications of the Ukraine war for the US. Reflects on US foreign policy shifts and election interference. Explores warnings and coups leading to Ukraine conflict, highlighting complexities of global power dynamics and the importance of informed citizenry.

Steve discusses DNA, origin of life, Fermi Paradox, AI, and the Simulation Question. Topics include DNA as molecular information, evolution through natural selection, AI's role in DNA sequencing and phenotypic prediction, timeline of life on Earth, Fermi Paradox explanations, and living in a simulated reality.

Utah AG Sean Reyes, a producer for 'Sound of Freedom', discusses his personal journey, human trafficking, technology in law enforcement, and the horror of human trafficking. They also touch on genetic genealogy, misconceptions surrounding human trafficking, and future plans for engagement in the political world.