Philippe Lemoine: Bad Covid Science, Ukraine Analysis, and Philosophy — #62
Jun 20, 2024
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PhD candidate Philippe Lemoine discusses bad COVID science, Ukraine war analysis, and philosophy. Critiques lockdown effectiveness, flawed pandemic predictions, and challenges in empirical validation. Explores Russia-West relations, conflict complexities, and potential security guarantees for preventing conflicts. Analyzes Putin's motivations, negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war, and long-term predictions.
Philippe highlights the need for genuine comprehension and critical thinking in education.
Questioning the foundations of science, he emphasizes intellectual honesty in epidemic modeling.
Critiquing the use of flawed models, Philippe stresses transparency in policy-making processes.
Predictions suggest a prolonged Ukraine conflict with varying scenarios and potential diplomatic solutions.
Deep dives
Influences Shaping Background and Career Choices
Philippe Lemois, a Ph .D. candidate at Cornell and a well-read public intellectual, discusses his academic journey, starting from a background in computer science to exploring political science and philosophy. He shares how diverse interests and prestigious opportunities drove his educational decisions, reflecting on the academic rigor and various influences that shaped his unique path.
Challenges in Educational Systems and Learning Approaches
Philippe delves into the academic environment and challenges faced, highlighting disparities between rote learning and deep understanding. He critiques educational systems focusing on exam techniques and superficial studying, revealing how this approach fails to promote genuine comprehension and critical thinking among students.
Philosophical Critiques and Meta-Scientific Outlook
Through his philosophical lens, Philippe questions the foundations of science and academia, particularly in epidemic modeling during the COVID-19 pandemic. He exposes the limitations of conventional modeling methods and emphasizes the need for intellectual honesty and deeper understanding within scientific research.
Unveiling Methodological Flaws in Public Policies
Philippe scrutinizes the application of flawed models in public policy decisions, citing examples where scientific inaccuracies influenced major governmental actions. He emphasizes the consequences of relying on faulty methodologies, pointing out the need for transparency and critical examination in policy-making processes.
Expected Outcome of Prolonged War in Ukraine
The prediction is that the war in Ukraine will continue for several more years with a gradual decrease in intensity over time. The expectation is that even after both sides agree to stop the conflict, negotiations for a ceasefire will extend for several additional years as they strive to reach an agreement.
Potential Long-Term Scenarios for the Conflict
There are multiple potential scenarios for the conflict, one being a prolonged war lasting at least an additional five years with diminishing intensity over time. Another scenario involves a collapse of the Ukrainian army leading to potential negotiations under varying circumstances.
Implications of Prolonged Conflict on Resource Allocation
In the event of a prolonged conflict in Ukraine, there could be a significant shift in resource allocation towards increased defense spending, impacting the economy and potentially necessitating defensive measures due to heightened tensions and possibilities of a more robust Russian military presence.
Potential Diplomatic Solutions and Consequences
There is a consideration of potential diplomatic solutions, including negotiated agreements or consequences, such as economic impacts and resource reallocation. The discussion encompasses the varying possibilities and challenges faced in finding diplomatic resolutions to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Philippe Lemoine is a PhD candidate at Cornell University in philosophy and a widely-read public intellectual. We discuss philosophy, the scientific research used to justify COVID lockdowns, and the Russia-Ukraine war.
(08:29) - Philosophical Insights and Career Shift: Public Intellectual
(46:17) - Russian Energy and European Economy
(48:27) - Covid Epidemic Modeling: Bad Science
(56:22) - Critique of Scientific and Policy Incentives
(01:31:54) - The Messy Reality of Ukraine Maidan Uprising
(01:32:59) - Could Security Guarantees Have Prevented the Ukraine War?
(02:07:21) - Ukraine War: Long-Term Predictions
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
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