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Manifold

Latest episodes

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6 snips
Jun 20, 2024 • 2h 17min

Philippe Lemoine: Bad Covid Science, Ukraine Analysis, and Philosophy — #62

PhD candidate Philippe Lemoine discusses bad COVID science, Ukraine war analysis, and philosophy. Critiques lockdown effectiveness, flawed pandemic predictions, and challenges in empirical validation. Explores Russia-West relations, conflict complexities, and potential security guarantees for preventing conflicts. Analyzes Putin's motivations, negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war, and long-term predictions.
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Jun 6, 2024 • 1h 14min

John Seo: Catastrophe Bonds and the Investor Choice Problem — Manifold #61

Steve and John discuss the Investor Choice Problem, parallels between derivatives and insurance markets, and building Fermat Capital. They explore catastrophe bonds, market dynamics, and the future of the industry amidst climate change impacts.
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May 16, 2024 • 1h 26min

Molson Hart: China and Amazon, Up Close — #60

CEO Molson Hart shares insights on entrepreneurship in China, Amazon's dominance, and future competition. Discusses IQ limitations, cultural transformations in China, and advice for aspiring entrepreneurs. Explores challenges of selling on Amazon, strategies for growth, and personal experiences in China.
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May 2, 2024 • 43min

Jaan Tallinn: AI Risks, Investments, and AGI — #59

Billionaire computer programmer Jaan Tallinn discusses AI risks, investments, and AGI with Steve. Topics include AGI excitement, AI capabilities, safety measures, cybersecurity threats, global cultural narratives on AI, and future directions in reducing AI extinction risk.
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11 snips
Apr 18, 2024 • 1h 29min

Glenn Luk: China’s economic evolution, GDP, and high speed rail — #58

Glenn Luk, an experienced investor and startup founder, discusses China's economic evolution, high speed rail success, and future prospects. Topics include China's GDP, entrepreneurship, economic policies, cultural comparisons with the US, consumer behavior, and demographic influences. The conversation also delves into the financial sustainability of China's high-speed rail network and its transition towards advanced technology and manufacturing.
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18 snips
Apr 4, 2024 • 1h 2min

Casey Handmer: Terraform Industries and a carbon-neutral future — #57

Casey Handmer, founder of Terraform Industries, discusses creating natural gas from sunlight and air, challenges in tech entrepreneurship, solar energy impact, the future of energy, navigating carbon neutrality, and upcoming milestones in the podcast.
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6 snips
Mar 21, 2024 • 1h 14min

Russell Clark: Japan, China, and USD reserve status — #56

Hedge fund investor Russell Clark discusses Japan, China, and USD reserve status. Topics include China property bubble, global reserve currency challenges, long-term Japanese and Chinese economies, inflation observations, and more
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Mar 7, 2024 • 50min

Stephen Grugett: Predicting the Future with Manifold Markets — #55

The podcast delves into the world of prediction markets with the co-founder of Manifold Markets, covering topics such as the play money advantage for user engagement, simplifying prediction markets, revenue streams, legal challenges, and the future of user predictions. Additionally, it explores custom betting markets, revenue models, unique show transformations, and insights on tech enthusiasts in London and San Francisco.
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Feb 22, 2024 • 1h 8min

Ray McGovern: CIA, JFK, Deep State, and Ukraine Crisis — #54

Former CIA analyst Ray McGovern discusses JFK assassination, Hunter Biden's laptop, deep state in Ukraine, and strategic implications of the Ukraine war for the US. Reflects on US foreign policy shifts and election interference. Explores warnings and coups leading to Ukraine conflict, highlighting complexities of global power dynamics and the importance of informed citizenry.
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Feb 8, 2024 • 53min

Lecture: Fermi Paradox, AI, Simulation Question — #53

Steve discusses DNA, origin of life, Fermi Paradox, AI, and the Simulation Question. Topics include DNA as molecular information, evolution through natural selection, AI's role in DNA sequencing and phenotypic prediction, timeline of life on Earth, Fermi Paradox explanations, and living in a simulated reality.

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