Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante

Confidential computing is a technology that aims to enhance data privacy and security by providing encrypted computation on sensitive data in use and isolating data from apps and other host resources in fenced off enclaves. The concept of confidential computing is gaining popularity, especially in the cloud computing space where sensitive data is commonly stored and processed. However, there are some who view confidential computing as an unnecessary technology and a marketing ploy by cloud providers, aimed at calming customers who are cloud-phobic.In this Breaking Analysis we revisit the notion of confidential computing and explore whether it’s just marketing or a key part of a trusted security strategy. To do so we’ll invite two Google experts to the show. But before we get there let’s summarize the overall market climate briefly with some ETR data.

The unraveling of market enthusiasm continued in Q4 of 2022 with the earnings reports from the U.S. hyperscalers now all in. As we said earlier this year, even the cloud is not immune from the macro headwinds and the cracks in the armor we saw from the data we shared last summer are playing out into 2023. For the most part, actuals are disappointing beyond expectations, including our own. It turns out that our estimates for the big 3 hyperscale revenue missed by $1.2 billion or 2.7% lower than we had forecast from our most recent November estimates. We expect decelerating growth rates for the hyperscalers will continue through the summer of 2023 and won’t abate until comparisons get easier. In this Breaking Analysis we share our view of what’s happening in cloud markets – not just for the hyperscalers but other firms that have hitched a ride on the cloud. And we’ll share new ETR data that shows why these trends are playing out, tactics customers are employing to deal with their cost challenges and how long the pain is likely to last. 

Making predictions about the future of enterprise tech is more challenging if you strive to lay down forecasts that are measurable. In other words if you make a prediction, you should be able to look back a year later and say with some degree of certainty whether the prediction came true or not. With evidence to back that up. In this Breaking Analysis we aim to do just that with predictions about the macro IT spending environment, cost optimization, security – lots to talk about there – generative AI, cloud and supercloud, blockchain adoption, data platforms, including commentary on Databricks, Snowflake and other key players, automation, events and we may even have some bonus predictions. To make all this happen we welcome back for the third year in a row, Erik Bradley our colleague from ETR.  As well, you can check out how we did with our 2022 predictions. 

Enterprise tech practitioners, like most of us, want to make their lives easier so they can focus on delivering more value to their business. They want to tap best of breed services in the public cloud and at the same time connect their on-prem intellectual property to emerging applications which drive top line revenue and bottom line profits. But creating a consistent experience across clouds and on-prem estates has been an elusive capability for most organizations, forcing tradeoffs and injecting friction into the system. The need to create seamless experiences is clear and the technology industry is starting to respond with platforms, architectures and visions of what we call Supercloud. In this Breaking Analysis we give you a preview of Supercloud2, share key findings leading up to the event and highlight some of the areas we’ll be probing in the live program.

Recent conversations with IT decision makers show a stark contrast between the period exiting 2023 versus the mindset leaving 2022. CIOs are generally funding new initiatives by pushing off or cutting lower-priority items. While security efforts are still being funded, those that enable business initiatives that generate revenue take priority over cleaning up legacy technical debt. The bottom line is, for the moment at least, the mindset is not to cut everything, rather it’s to put a pause on cleaning up legacy hairballs and continue to fund initiatives to drive monetization. Cloud has become fundamental and getting data “right” is a consistent theme that appears to be an underpinning of initiatives getting funded today. In this Breaking Analysis we tap recent discussions from two primary sources: year-end ETR roundtables with IT decision makers and conversations on theCUBE with data, cloud and IT architecture practitioners. 

With Andy Thurai, VP & Principal Analyst, Constellation ResearchA decade of big data investments combined with cloud scalability, the rise of more cost effective processing and the introduction of advanced tooling has catapulted machine intelligence to the forefront of technology investments. No matter what job you have, your operation will be AI powered within five years and machines may be doing your job in the future. Artificial intelligence is being infused into applications, infrastructure, equipment and virtually every aspect of our lives. AI is proving to be extremely helpful at controlling vehicles, speeding medical diagnoses, processing language, advancing science and generally raising the stakes on what it means to apply technology for business advantage. But business value realization has been a challenge for most organizations due to lack of skills, complexity of programming models, immature technology integration, sizable up front investments, ethical concerns and lack of business alignment. Mastering AI technology and a focus on features will not be a requirement for success in our view. Rather figuring out how and where to apply AI to your business will be the crucial gate. That means understanding the business case, picking the right technology partner, experimenting in bite sized chunks and quickly identifying winners to double down on from an investment standpoint. In this Breaking Analysis we update you on the state of AI with a focus on interpreting the latest ETR survey data around ML/AI and data. We’ll explore what it means for the competitive environment and what to look for in the future. To do so we invite into our studios Andy Thurai of Constellation Research. Andy covers AI deeply, he knows the players and the pitfalls of AI investment.

Nailing technology predictions in 2022 was tricky business. Projections on the performance of markets, identifying IPO prospects and making binary forecasts on data, AI, the macro spending climate, along with other related topics in enterprise tech, carried much uncertainty. 2022 was characterized by a seesaw economy where central banks were restructuring their balance sheets, the war in Ukraine fueled inflation, supply chains were a mess and the unintended consequences of digital acceleration are still being sorted. In this Breaking Analysis we continue our annual tradition of openly grading our previous year’s enterprise tech predictions. You may or may not agree with our self-grading system but we give you the data to draw your own conclusions. 

Palo Alto Networks has earned a reputation as the leader in security. You can measure this in revenue, market cap, execution and, most importantly, conversations with CISOs. The company is on track to double its revenues to nearly $7B in FY23 from FY20. This despite macro headwinds which will likely continue through next year. Palo Alto owes its position to a clarity of vision and strong execution of a TAM expansion strategy bolstered by key acquisitions and integrations into its cloud & SaaS offerings.  In this Breaking Analysis, and ahead of Palo Alto Ignite, we bring you the next chapter on top of last week’s cybersecurity update. We’ll dig into the ETR spending data on Palo Alto Networks, provide a glimpse of what to look for at Ignite and posit what Palo Alto needs to do to stay on top of the hill.

While by no means a safe haven, the cybersecurity sector has outpaced the broader tech market by a meaningful margin. That is up until very recently. Cyber security remains the number one technology priority for the c-suite but as we’ve previously reported, the CISO’s budget has constraints; just like other technology investments. Recent trends show that economic headwinds have elongated sales cycles, pushed deals into future quarters and, just like other tech initiatives, are pacing cybersecurity investments and breaking them into smaller chunks. In this Breaking Analysis we explain how cybersecurity trends are reverting to the mean and tracking more closely with other technology investments. We’ll make a couple of valuation comparisons to show the magnitude of the challenge and which cyber firms are feeling the heat, and which aren’t as much. We’ll then show the latest survey data from ETR to quantify the contraction in spending momentum and close with a glimpse at the landscape of emerging cybersecurity companies that could be ripe for acquisition, consolidation or disruptive to the broader market.