In this jam-packed episode we answer questions from Luke, Ethan, and Garry.  We discuss a modified Golden Butterfly portfolio, some meta-withdrawal strategy ideas and concepts, a process for deciding what to do with oneself, small-cap vs. small-cap value investments, some esoteric international tax issues and the new QQQY gambling problem fund.  And throw in some Tom Waits to boot.Links:Portfolio Charts Portfolio Matrix Tool:  PORTFOLIO MATRIX – Portfolio ChartsFive Regrets of the Dying:  The Top Five Regrets of the Dying - WikipediaStephen Kotler "Flow" Video -- Short Version:  How to enter ‘flow state’ on command | Steven Kotler for Big Think - YouTubeEthan's International Tax Article:  Nonresident alien investors and Ireland domiciled ETFs - BogleheadsQQQY Summary Prospectus:  Microsoft Word - qqqy_497k-091523.docx (defianceetfs.com)Support the show

In this episode we answer an email from Jeffrey about the "4% Rule".  We discuss its origins, its three parameters (portfolio construction, time frame, and withdrawal mechanism), how it works, what it means and doesn't mean, its uses and misuses and how to make adjustments to improve your own outcomes.And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.   We have a rebalancing of the Levered Golden Ratio portfolio.Additional links:Bill Bengen's Original 1994 Safe Withdrawal Rate Paper:  FPA Journal - The Best of 25 Years: Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data (financialplanningassociation.org)2022 Morningstar Report on Withdrawal Strategies:  Six Retirement Withdrawal Strategies that Stretch Savings | MorningstarRisk Savvy Video Lecture:  Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions - YouTubeBias-Variance Dilemma Dartboard Explanation (also listen to Episode 49 of this podcast):  WTF is the Bias-Variance Tradeoff? (Infographic) (elitedatascience.com)Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Brown, Justin, MyContactInfo and an Anonymous Trending Value Investor.  We discuss investing in baskets of property & casualty insurance companies for effective diversification, what's happening at Risk Parity Chronicles, general thoughts about brokerages for DIY investors and an assortment of leveraged momentum-based strategies.Links:  Walk4McKenna:  Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna Center KBWP Portfolio:  KBWP – Portfolio – Invesco KBW Property & Casualty Ins ETF | MorningstarPortfolio Visualizer of KBWP vs. Direct Indexes:  https://tinyurl.com/4sfh3s49Risk Parity Chronicles:  Risk Parity ChroniclesAVGV Article:  AVGV ETF Review - Avantis All Equity Markets Value ETF (optimizedportfolio.com)Swedroe Article on Diversification:  How to think differently about diversification | TEBI (evidenceinvestor.com)Anonymous Factor Regression Analysis:  https://tinyurl.com/2vymptuzAnonymous Portfolio Analysis:  https://tinyurl.com/yzcwazdyTrending Value Blog Post:  100% Factor Focused Equities vs Diversification Reigns Supreme (pictureperfectportfolios.com)Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Owen, Jeff and Will.  We discuss the commonly believed misinformation about TIPS, the ins and outs of quality dogs and investing principles, and talk about backtesting data and how it is used and misused.And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.   We have a rebalancing of the Levered Golden Ratio portfolio.Additional links:Bloomberg Presentation on How Various Assets Perform in Inflationary Environments:   MH201-SteveHou-Bloomberg.pdf (markethuddle.com)Market Huddle Video discussing Bloomberg Presentation:  To Survive Disasters, You Need Smiles (guest: Steve Hou) - Market Huddle Ep.201 - YouTubeRisk Parity Chronicles series on TIPS:  Eight Observations About TIPS (riskparitychronicles.com) Bill Bernstein TIPS Ladder Article:  Riskless at Age 104 - Articles - Advisor PerspectivesWalk4McKenna:  Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna CenterSupport the show

In this episode we answer emails from Graham, Hydromod and Katie.  We discuss a couple new funds from Avantis, AVGE and AVGV, and creating a portfolio with those and RSBT, Hydromod's Okay Adventure portfolio management techniques with a levered risk parity style portfolio, and Katie's questions about buying a house with her partner.  And we make fun of our children, Squidward and Patrick.Links:Walk4McKenna:  Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna CenterAVGE Fund Review:  AVGE ETF Review - Avantis All Equity Markets ETF (optimizedportfolio.com)ADGV Fund Review:  AVGV ETF Review - Avantis All Equity Markets Value ETF (optimizedportfolio.com)Hydromod Link #1:  HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs] - Bogleheads.orgHydromod Link #2:  Refinements to Hedgefundie's excellent approach - Bogleheads.orgHydromod LInk #3:  Hydromod's Okay Adventure: Leverage, Momentum, and Risk Management - Bogleheads.orgHydromod Portfolio Visualizer Link:  Test Tactical Allocation Models (portfoliovisualizer.com)Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Justin of Risk Parity Chronicles and Chris.  We discuss Justin's new blogpost and a new fund that mixes stocks and managed futures, RSST, and follow up on Episode 288 with some useful references from Chris.And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.   We have a rebalancing of the Levered Golden Ratio portfolio.Additional links:Justin's Blog Post:  Quick Musings on RSST (riskparitychronicles.com)Corey Hoffstein's Return Stacked Portfolio:  Show Us Your Portfolio: Corey Hoffstein - YouTubeAndrew Beer Interview on Forward Guidance:  How Hedge Funds Take Too Much Of Investors' Money (Way Too Much) | Andrew Beer - YouTubeWikipedia Article about Modern Portfolio Theory: Modern portfolio theory - Wikipedia MIT Opencourseware for Finance and MPT: Ses 14: Portfolio Theory II - YouTube Khan Academy Video on Normal Distributions:  Introduction to the normal distribution | Probability and Statistics | Khan Academy - YouTube Normal Distribution Calculator:   Normal Distribution Applet/Calculator (uiowa.edu)Walk4McKenna:  Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna CenterSupport the show

In this episode we respond to emails from Matt, MyContactInfo, Alexi (a/k/a "Dude") and Sharon.  We follow up on Matt's email from Episode 286, talk more about using Portfolio Visualizer and safe and perpetual withdrawal rates, Allan Roth's critique of Wade Pfau's analysis and article and related issues, and individual bonds vs. bond funds.Links:Matt's Current Portfolio Monte Carlo Sim:  Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)Similar Allocation Monte Carlo Sim:  https://tinyurl.com/2p8twtdpGolden Butterfly Monte Carlo Sim:  https://tinyurl.com/54c9b68xModified Golden Ratio Monte Carlo Sim:  https://tinyurl.com/4pca2sdhAQR Paper on Trend Following:  A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing (aqr.com)Retirement & IRA show (Episode EDU #2334):  Reexamining The Fun Number, MDF and Secure Income: EDU #2334 - The Retirement and IRA ShowAdvisor Perspectives Article #1:  Are Fixed Indexed Annuities More Efficient Than Bonds? - Articles - Advisor PerspectivesAdvisor Perspectives Article #2:  Challenging Morningstar’s Safe Withdrawal Rates - Articles - Advisor PerspectivesWealth of Common Sense Article re Epidemic of Over-saving:  You Probably Need Less Money Than You Think For Retirement - A Wealth of Common SenseWealth of Common Sense Article re Bonds vs. Bond Funds:  Owning Individual Bonds vs. Owning a Bond Fund - A Wealth of Common SenseWalk4McKenna:  Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna CenterSupport the show

In this episode we answer a loooooong email from Kevin.   We discuss how to use backtesting and Monte Carlo simulations and how they related to safe and perpetual withdrawal rates, classic and modified Risk Parity-style portfolios, assorted variables and metrics, sizing allocations, Kevin's overall portfolio.  And conclude with Monty Python and Kevin singing.And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:Early Retirement Now Toolbox with Over 100 Years of Data:  An Updated Google Sheet DIY Withdrawal Rate Toolbox (SWR Series Part 28) - Early Retirement NowRay Dalio Holy Grail Principle Video:  Ray Dalio breaks down his "Holy Grail" - YouTubeMichael Kitces Risk Parity Article:  Microsoft Word - Kitces Report November-December 2013 - RISK PARITY - FINALBill Bernstein TIPS Ladder Article:  Riskless at Age 104 - Articles - Advisor PerspectivesWealth of Common Sense Article re the Epidemic of Over-saving:  You Probably Need Less Money Than You Think For Retirement - A Wealth of Common SenseWalk4McKenna Sign-up Page:  Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna CenterSupport the show

In this episode we answer emails from Chas, MyContactInfo and JDM.  We discuss momentum-based funds and strategies (see also Episodes 218, 231 and 234), the inherent difficulties of trying to use GDP and other macro-economic data to make investing decisions and the basics of implementing a Golden Butterfly portfolio.Links:AQR Article -- Fama on Momentum:  Fama on Momentum (aqr.com)Interview of Professor Fama:  INVESTORS FROM THE MOON: FAMA (top1000funds.com)Chas' Asset Correlation Analysis:   Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)VIOV vs. XSVM vs. DFSVX:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)Swedroe Article re GDP and Emerging Markets:   Is there a link between GDP growth and emerging market returns? | TEBI (evidenceinvestor.com)Support the show

The podcast discusses topics such as investing in a 457 plan, a leveraged portfolio, and evaluating registered investment advisors (RIAs) through SEC filings as applied to Lido Advisors. It also covers detailed breakdowns of fees and investment strategies, skepticism towards crystal ball predictions, and ends with closing remarks and announcements.