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Eyes on the Economy

Latest episodes

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13 snips
Dec 4, 2024 • 9min

US Deficits and Tariffs: Clues from Trump’s Nominees

Avery Shenfeld discusses the implications of Trump’s economic nominees on federal deficits and bond markets. Concerns about rising deficits are juxtaposed with mixed economic signals affecting treasury yields. The podcast delves into the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade tariffs and their potential impact on relationships with Canada and other trading partners. Conflicting views within the administration on tariff effectiveness highlight the complex economic landscape. The conversation wraps up with insights into future economic trends.
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7 snips
Nov 20, 2024 • 11min

A Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Bank of Canada

In this insightful discussion, Ali Jaffery, a Senior Economist at CIBC, shares his expertise on the Bank of Canada's monetary policy. He explains how to interpret the current easing cycle and what it means for interest rates. Jaffery dives into the Bank's inflation risks, highlighting the need for rate relief in an economy grappling with excess supply. He also provides an economic outlook for Canada and the U.S., emphasizing the importance of accurate data for forecasting. Tune in for a deep dive into Canada’s economic future!
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Oct 30, 2024 • 12min

No love of labor: Why the US labor market needs some preventative medicine

Benjamin Tal, CIBC’s Deputy Chief Economist, joins Ali Jaffery, Senior Economist to talk through their latest note dissecting the US labor market. Motivated by a desire to preserve margin gains, businesses are adding less labor with job growth trending down and a worrisome pattern of revisions making it difficult to make a real-time read on the job market.
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Sep 24, 2024 • 25min

Special Guest: Former Fed Vice Chair Rich Clarida gives his take on the US outlook

CIBC Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld is joined by Dr. Richard Clarida, Managing Director & Global Economic Advisor, PIMCO, who shares his perspectives on the US outlook, the direction for the Fed, and the implications for markets.
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Sep 10, 2024 • 11min

US Elections and trade policy: What’s at stake for the US and Canada?

Avery Shenfeld, CIBC's Chief Economist, joins Ali Jaffery, Senior Economist, to discuss the US federal election and the future directions of trade policy under a Trump or Harris presidency, and what this would mean for the US and Canada.
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Aug 27, 2024 • 11min

Latest on the Economy – Three things we are watching

Avery Shenfeld, CIBC's Chief Economist, joins Ali Jaffery, Senior Economist, to discuss the labour dispute in Canada’s rail sector, what commodity prices are telling us about the global economy, and the future direction of monetary policy after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole.
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Aug 12, 2024 • 12min

US recession fears and implications

Avery Shenfeld, CIBC’s Chief Economist, joins colleague Andrew Grantham, Senior Economist, to discuss the slowing in the US economy and emerging recession fears, and shares their interest rate forecast changes for both Canada and the US.
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Jul 16, 2024 • 11min

Seeking shelter from shelter inflation

CIBC Capital Markets' Senior Economists, Ali Jaffery and Katherine Judge, discuss the outlook for shelter inflation in the US and Canada and why mortgage interest costs may increasingly distort the Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures of inflation. For more information, check out the mentioned In Focus report: https://cibccm.com/en/insights/articles/in-focus-seeking-shelter-from-shelter-inflation/
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Jul 3, 2024 • 9min

The Bank of Canada Outlook: Sticking to our guns for now

Avery Shenfeld, CIBC's Chief Economist, joins Ali Jaffery, CIBC's Senior Economist, to discuss why May’s inflation report needn’t deter the Bank of Canada from a rate cut in July, and the implications for bond market investors.
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Jun 19, 2024 • 12min

Evaluating the BoC’s maneuvering room

Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist, CIBC and Katherine Judge, Senior Economist, CIBC discuss how labour market dynamics and inflation risks are impacting Bank of Canada policy.

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