Eyes on the Economy Where are the US and Canadian economies headed?
4 snips
Jun 10, 2025 Ali Jaffery, a senior economist at CIBC, shares his insights into the economic trajectories of the U.S. and Canada. He discusses the implications of recent employment data and the uncertainty created by trade tariffs. The conversation delves into potential recession risks and how the Federal Reserve might adjust interest rates. Jaffery highlights the challenges of growth and productivity caused by tariffs, emphasizing the need for innovation to navigate the evolving economic landscape.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
US Economy Withstands Tariffs
- The U.S. economy can withstand current tariff levels due to its low trade intensity and strong labor market.
- Tariffs will slow growth and increase inflation temporarily but are unlikely to cause a recession at current levels.
Fed's Rate Cut Timing
- The Fed will wait for tariff inflation effects to peak before cutting interest rates.
- Rate cuts are expected starting late 2025 as inflation normalizes and labor market cools.
Canada's Tariff Challenges
- Canada's economy is hit harder by U.S. tariffs given its openness and dependence on the U.S. market.
- Weak growth, rising unemployment, and inflation effects prompt expected Bank of Canada rate cuts soon.