Saxo Market Call

Today, we take a humble stab at forecasting the coming year, from the economy and global equity markets to outcomes for rates and FX, as well as touching on key policy and geopolitical topics with uncertain outcomes that could make a mockery of any forecast. We even assemble a sample portfolio for 2026 that we'll return to throughout the year. (Important: this is not a recommendation, it's presented in order to have as a point of departure for discussions). You can find the sample portfolio instruments listed in a coming post on the John J. Hardy substack (within a few hours of this podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we look at equity markets trying to ramp up for a strong close to a strong year. On Tesla's recent share price ramp, we have finally gotten the memo, as there is clearly a SpaceX angle for the company's stock of late that could send it higher still depending on market conditions for an eventual SpaceX IPO and whether Tesla shareholders get special access. Elsewhere, the JPY tries to make a stand after Friday's ugly downdraft and as JGB yields spike again. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at AI stocks trying to get back their stride, Trump's DJT stock now becoming a nuclear fusion play and thoughts on what exactly can stop the yen from weakening when the market continues to play the currency as an emerging market currency after today's BoJ hike, with weakness in the currency coinciding with new 26-year highs in the 10-year JGB yield, which has ripped higher through 2.00%. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. For our longer form podcasts, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Join Ruben Dalfovo, Saxo Equity Strategist, as he delves into the unsettling drop in AI stocks, despite Micron's impressive earnings forecast. He shares insights on Tesla's competitive landscape and Oracle's struggle with its costly data-center investments. Dalfovo also analyzes the shifting trends in European fashion, highlighting the disparities between luxury brands and their mid-tier counterparts. Lastly, he looks ahead to the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting and its potential impact on currency and market volatility.

In this discussion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, offers keen insights into the commodities market. He highlights how retail enthusiasm pushed Tesla to new highs, driven by robotaxi expectations. Hansen dives into the turbulent world of oil and natural gas, detailing their price volatility and supply chain impacts. He also touches on the rising prices of silver and platinum amid tight markets, while exploring the implications of a pivotal Bank of Japan meeting on currency stability. Don't miss these strategic market analyses!

Today we look at another weak session for the US equity market, especially for many AI-related names, although Tesla had a banner day on hopes that its Robo-taxis are set to go driverless. We do some of the maths on robo-taxis to show why market hopes are so high - but also why the company must deliver them on a staggering scale to justify Tesla's share price. Thoughts on macro and FX ahead of key central bank meetings later this week and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at Friday's ugly session, where internals suggest a market where some of the pros may be in profit-taking mode ahead of year-end as some of the most recent high-profile gainers suffered an ugly setback while many weak companies posted strong gains. Also, a look at the busy calendar for the week ahead for macro traders, as we await key US data and central bank meetings, especially the Bank of England on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Today's link: Mike Green has made a huge splash on middle class financial insecurities and cost of living affordability challenges at surprisingly high income levels and was recently a guest on a very long form podcast discussing this very topic. Really critical to get at the root of why someone like Donald Trump has become president - because the system isn't working for most people anymore.   For our longer form podcasts, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we note the extension of the recent boom in the broader market and small caps relative to tech, as the relative rotation away from AI continues and Broadcom is the latest AI/tech megacap to be punished despite reporting strong results for last quarter after the close yesterday. We also profile an intriguing and wildly successful name for the last thirty years that reports next week, assessing Micron and its massive advance. Lots more on today's pod as well, especially on macro and FX and ongoing concern about the US treasury market and its potential to drive market volatility. Today's pod features Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

The S&P 500 aims for new heights but is shaken by Oracle's disappointing earnings, raising spending concerns. Can Broadcom's upcoming results shift the narrative back to AI optimism? Meanwhile, Carvana's S&P inclusion stirs controversy with allegations of fraud. The podcast also dives into Adobe's growth amidst tightening multiples and highlights GE Vernova's rise in the energy sector. Lastly, it considers the Fed's future moves and the implications of a potential QE reboot.

Today, we look at the equity and treasury markets holding their collective breath ahead of the FOMC tonight and what to watch for in the market's reaction today, noting that key incoming US macro data is in the mix as well. We also talk gold, the surge in silver and the crude outlook with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen. Also, one key listen for today asks the question of what would the market trajectory look like if AI causes unemployment rates to rise to 20%? Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.