Saxo Market Call Forecasts for 2026. Also: a stab at assembling a 2026 portfolio.
9 snips
Dec 23, 2025 The discussion kicks off with an analysis of market movements, highlighting gains in AI and the resilience of gold and silver. A humble approach to 2026 forecasts sets the tone, addressing the K-shaped U.S. economy and its political implications. Notably, there's focus on investment boosts from tax policies, with a bleak outlook for U.S. equities consolidating. Key geopolitical risks are identified, and growth prospects hinge on AI productivity. A sample defensive portfolio is introduced, emphasizing a strategic mix of cash, bonds, and equities across regions.
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K-Shaped U.S. Economy Risks
- John Hardy warns of a K-shaped U.S. economy where different sectors diverge sharply in 2026.
- He expects grinding gears with top-end strength from AI investment but weakness for lower-income cohorts.
AI Trade May Consolidate In 2026
- John Hardy expects AI-driven equity gains to consolidate in 2026 rather than keep accelerating.
- He forecasts a flat-to-sideways S&P 500 around 6,800–7,000 as AI spending normalizes.
Liquidity, Not Free Markets, May Set Rates
- John Hardy is uneasy about long-end rates and doubts pure free-market interest-rate discovery next year.
- He expects authorities to prioritize liquidity measures over allowing long yields to run unchecked.