Saxo Market Call

US equities are soaring, fueled by AI stocks, but concerns about a potential bubble versus a 'melt-up' are growing. Indicators of market instability are discussed, including drastic sell-offs and retail speculation. The yen's decline, possible drivers for a reversal, and the implications of China's rare-earth export curbs are explored. The podcast also highlights the calm in junk bond yields, revealing hidden risks in private credit, while anticipating earnings season and upcoming Treasury auctions.

The podcast takes a deep dive into the turmoil of the US equity markets, triggered by troubling AI news and disappointing Tesla updates. The Japanese yen faces a severe decline as gold prices soar above $4,000 for the first time. Listen in as they discuss the widening dispersion trade and the speculative frenzy in single stocks. Plus, get insights into France's political rollercoaster and the implications of rising Chinese investment in Brazil amidst geopolitical tensions.

The discussion kicks off with the amusing implications of the OpenAI-AMD deal, igniting AI capex frenzy among market observers. It also dives into OpenAI's pivotal role in the AI ecosystem and the risks tied to its centrality. Speculation heats up with Tesla's rumored product announcements and geopolitical tensions in Europe and South America. The conversation explores extreme valuations in the AI space, questions if we are in a bubble, and analyzes the impact of a major Ford plant fire. Finally, insights into macro trends and currency dynamics round out the insights.

Japan's political landscape takes a surprising turn with Takaichi's unexpected victory, weakening the yen in the process. The discussion explores potential long-term implications for Japan's currency strength. Meanwhile, France faces turmoil as its new prime minister resigns, raising concerns about euro volatility and bond market risks. Insights on Palantir's alarming glitch and the unsettling divergences in US market internals provide a thrilling blend of market analysis, while recommendations on credit highlight the challenges in private equity.

Today we look at many AI names and the broader market posting a strong day, if one that finished off the highs - while Tesla shareholders got a very bad, no good bearish candlestick. Importantly, we cover the big markdown in private equity stocks, possibly linked to the First Brands bankruptcy, as well as whether this is this is a one-off or the beginning of a wider contagion. Geopolitics, macro and FX, more links and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

In this insightful discussion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo, dives into the current state of the oil market and the intriguing dynamics behind gold and silver's rallies. He analyzes the impact of geopolitical tensions, OPEC's strategies, and seasonal demand on crude prices. Hansen also examines ETF flows and physical availability as key factors driving precious metals' strength, highlighting risks tied to shorts and leverage. His expert insights illuminate an asset class that is unexpectedly showing signs of trouble amid broader market euphoria.

The risks of a US government shutdown are explored, highlighting potential economic impacts and political theatrics. The Japanese Yen makes a sudden rally, defying recent trends against the USD. Exciting discussions on Carnival's earnings reflect strong demand but cautioned cost outlook. Geopolitical tensions, especially around China and Taiwan, are on the rise, affecting global markets. The episode also dives into the complexities of labor shortages and the AI boom's perceived hype, plus what to expect in upcoming economic data releases.

Markets are in a positive mood, with treasury yields stable and crypto bouncing back. The potential US government shutdown looms as pivotal economic data approaches. Sharp rallies in silver and gold signal risk appetite, while Japan's leadership contest could influence the yen. The UK faces political uncertainty affecting its gilt market, and the Germany-France yield spread raises Eurozone concerns. Lastly, the attention economy may be contributing to civic fragmentation, highlighting systemic risks in trading structures.

In this discussion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo, dives into his structural bullish outlook on crude oil, emphasizing supply dynamics and OPEC concerns. He explains why oil prices are unlikely to fall below $50, highlighting global demand trends. The conversation shifts to the outlook for European natural gas as winter approaches, discussing storage and supply challenges. Hansen also touches on the performance of metals like gold and copper, and outlines potential investment ideas linked to stable oil prices.

Today, a look at another weak session for US equities, with few stand-out themes amidst the broad weakness.  The concern going into next Tuesday's September 30 government shutdown continues to build and could be a determining factor in whether we remain in consolidation-ville or tip over into correction-ville. Another factor could be USDJPY and the fallout if it breaks higher. Some key developments in copper on an Indonesian copper mine disaster, a compelling biotech stock story, other single stock developments and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.  Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic