Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity

The full-employment rate of unemployment may seem like a contradiction, but in fact, economists have long understood that some unemployment is necessary. In their new paper, Pascal Michaillat of UC Santa Cruz and Saez of the University of California, Berkeley present a new formula for identifying the efficient rate of unemployment in the U.S. and find that the labor market has been inefficiently slack for most of the last century. In this episode, Michaillat discusses the paper and potential impacts on macroeconomic theory and policy with Brookings Senior Fellow Louise Sheiner. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

As COVID-19 swept across the globe, many nations struggled to define a cohesive public health strategy to prevent the spread of the disease. However, in spite of the lack of a clear plan, improvised strategies of behavioral changes—e.g., masking, social distancing—slowed transmission until a vaccine could be developed. The new BPEA paper, “The impact of vaccines and behaviors on U.S. cumulative deaths from COVID-19,” estimates that the ad hoc strategy prevented close to 800,000 deaths. On this episode, epidemiologist and paper co-author Stephen Kissler talks with Brookings Senior Fellow Carol Graham about the model they used to study COVID-19's impacts and what can be done to improve the government response to future pandemics.   This is the final episode of season four of the podcast. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

The failure of three mid-sized banks in March 2023—three of the four largest bank failures in history—shook financial markets and could’ve spread to other banks if regulators hadn’t stepped in. Two on-going trends in finance contributed to these failures: an increase in uninsured deposits and the migration of business lending to non-banks. In a new paper, “The evolution of banking in the 21st century,” a group of Harvard researchers looked at regulations that could mitigate risks going forward as well as the potential implications for mergers and acquisitions among mid-sized banks. David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, hears from two of the authors, Samuel Hanson and Daniel Tarullo, on their findings in this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

Most advanced economies enjoyed a long period of low, stable inflation prior to 2021, with inflation in the U.S. actually running below the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target for much of the 2010s. This stability was driven in part by factors external to monetary policy, including downward price and wage pressures from globalization and de-unionization. However, the authors of a new BPEA paper, “Changing central bank pressures and inflation,” argue that emerging trends may present headwinds to central banks trying to keep inflation steady. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, paper co-author Pierre Yared of Columbia Business School speaks with Brookings Senior Fellow Don Kohn about the new research and its implications for policymakers. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

Many indicators suggest that the U.S. economy is thriving, yet Americans continue to have a negative overall economic outlook. Stubbornly high inflation has played a significant role in this negative sentiment among consumers, even as wage growth has caught up with the rate of inflation. In a new study, “Why do we dislike inflation?” Stefanie Stantcheva fielded a survey to explore how Americans experience inflation and why they have such strong feelings about it. In this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Stantcheva discusses her findings with Economic Studies Vice President and Director Ben Harris. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

Andrew Fieldhouse and David Munro discuss how US states have experienced similar economic recoveries in recent decades, despite historical variations. They explore reasons for this convergence, such as industrial composition and policy implications for federal macroeconomic stabilization. The conversation touches on migration patterns, labor market responses to economic shocks, and the impact of climate shocks on economies.

Economics professors Peter Blair Henry and Barry Eichengreen, along with Brookings Senior Fellow Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, discuss how Jamaica halved its debt in 10 years by running budget surpluses, ensuring political stability, and strong fiscal discipline. They highlight the role of consensus-building, stakeholder engagement, and unconventional debt reduction strategies, emphasizing the importance of leadership and historical context in sustaining economic policies.

The podcast discusses the challenges of decoupling the US-Chinese supply chains and the complexity of global supply chains during COVID-19. It introduces the concept of hidden exposure and proposes measurement methods to capture direct and indirect exposures. The dominance of China as a supplier in the US supply chain and the shift in perception of supply chains from positive to risky are explored. The distinction between idiosyncratic and systemic shocks in supply chains is discussed, along with strategies for achieving robustness and resilience in supply chain management. The risks and gains associated with being highly exposed to supply chains are also explored.

On this episode, Martin Neil Baily of Brookings speaks with Guido Lorenzoni, economist and co-author of a paper on wage-price spirals. They discuss how rising wages and prices can affect each other and drive inflation. The study suggests that wages can increase faster than inflation, at least for a time, without spinning the economy out of control. The podcast explores the interplay between wages and prices, scenarios of inflation and wage growth, optimal policy in managing overheated economy, and the response to supply shocks and sectoral shifts.

The podcast explores the surprising surge in new business formations and expansions during the pandemic. It discusses the potential long-term impact on business dynamics, employment growth, and city center activity. The speakers delve into the concept of business dynamism and its slowdown in recent years. They also examine the link between business formation and the job market, emphasizing the positive outcomes and opportunities for individuals. Additionally, the significance of young businesses and startups in the economy is highlighted, emphasizing the need for policies that support their entry and growth.