What do we miss in standard supply chain measures?
Dec 21, 2023
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The podcast discusses the challenges of decoupling the US-Chinese supply chains and the complexity of global supply chains during COVID-19. It introduces the concept of hidden exposure and proposes measurement methods to capture direct and indirect exposures. The dominance of China as a supplier in the US supply chain and the shift in perception of supply chains from positive to risky are explored. The distinction between idiosyncratic and systemic shocks in supply chains is discussed, along with strategies for achieving robustness and resilience in supply chain management. The risks and gains associated with being highly exposed to supply chains are also explored.
US manufacturers rely heavily on China in their supply chains, making decoupling more difficult and expensive than anticipated.
Understanding the hidden exposure and complex network of supply chains is crucial for appropriate policy responses.
Deep dives
US Supply Chain Reliance on China
The podcast discusses a new study that reveals the extent of US manufacturers' reliance on China in their supply chains. The study finds that US manufacturers rely even more heavily on China than previously thought, making decoupling of US-Chinese supply chains more difficult and expensive than anticipated. This highlights the fragility and complexity of global supply chains, which were disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Measuring Supply Chain Exposures
The podcast explores a research paper that introduces new indicators to measure the exposure of countries to global supply chains. The indicators distinguish between face value measures, which focus on direct trade connections, and look-through measures, which consider the indirect links of supplies. The paper shows that the look-through measure reveals a significantly higher exposure to China for the US than the face value measure. This underlines the importance of understanding the hidden exposure and complex network of supply chains.
Changes in Supply Chain Sources
The podcast highlights that China has become the top supplier for almost all manufacturing sectors in the US, with Japan's role diminishing over time. Examining data from 1995 to 2008, the study shows a shift in supply chain sources, placing China as a dominant supplier for the majority of manufacturing industries. This indicates a change in the structure of supply chains and the significance of China's contributions.
Resilience and Public Policy Response
The podcast discusses strategies for firms to respond to supply chain disruptions, focusing on resilience and robustness. Resilient strategies involve adjusting production schedules and quickly switching suppliers to avoid prolonged disruptions. Robustness strategies include holding inventories and diversifying suppliers. The podcast emphasizes that public policy should balance protecting strategic industries while considering the benefits of global value chains. The measurement of supply chain exposure beyond face value trade is crucial to informing appropriate policy responses.
The COVID-19 pandemic shone a spotlight on supply chains, with shortages in everything from baby formula to microchips. This spurred an on-going policy debate on the need for the U.S. to shore up its supply chains, in some cases literally moving production back to the U.S. or allied nations. However, new analysis published in the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity showed that effort may be more difficult than standard supply chain data suggests, especially when it comes to limiting exposure to China. In this episode, David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, interviews Rebecca Freeman of the Bank of England and Angelos Theodorakopoulos of Aston University on the “hidden exposure” that is revealed in U.S. supply chains with their new data.
The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.
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