Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity

Throughout history, human work has been augmented by technology. But the emergence of artificial intelligence tools have led many to ask whether an unprecedented shift in how we work with technology is imminent. In a new study, researchers used modern AI tools to look back at the recent history of technology's impact on work—which jobs were replaced, which were enhanced, and who was likely to benefit—and then used that model to look at the potential impacts of AI going forward. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, two of the study's authors, Dimitris Papanikolaou and Lawrence D. W. Schmidt, join a conversation with Brookings Senior Fellow Molly Kinder to discuss their findings and the policy implications. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

Fertility rates are falling in many countries around the world, with births failing to keep pace with deaths in nearly half of countries. Researchers believe it's possible that the world's population will start shrinking in the near future, and the effects could be catastrophic for institutions like Social Security. A new paper explores a novel explanation for this decline in fertility: The role of social comparison between parents. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, David Wessel is joined by two of the authors to discuss the parental rat race, the high costs of education, and the impact of social media. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

Studies of the economic impacts of climate change often look at long-term, national costs. A new BPEA study takes a different approach, focusing on the current household level costs attributable to changing weather. The report authors examine a range of impacts, from mortality costs due of wildfire smoke to rising insurance costs along coastlines, to provide estimates of annual costs by region and socioeconomic status. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, two of the authors, Kimberly Clausing and Catherine Wolfram, join host Samantha Gross for a discussion of their findings and the implications for policymakers. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

Roughly two thirds of countries on Earth stabilize their currency against the U.S. dollar. The relationship has benefits in both directions: Smaller countries enjoy better stability for their national currencies, and U.S. companies and government get low borrowing rates, among other benefits. But a new BPEA paper, "Trade War and the dollar anchor," highlights how U.S. tariffs and retaliatory tariffs by other countries are putting pressure on the dollar's place at the heart of world monetary system. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, one of the paper's coauthors, Tarek Hassan of Boston University, will speak with Brookings Director of Trade and Economic Statecraft Kari Heerman about his study. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

Interstate migration has declined in the U.S. in recent decades, suggesting that workers are less likely to move in order to find employment. Such a trend would have significant policy implications for state and local governments, as well as at the federal level. But new research by Andrea Foschi, Christopher L. House, Christian Proebsting, and Linda L. Tesar suggests that it isn't workers who have changed as much as differences in regional economies. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, House and Tesar join Brookings Senior Fellow Tara Watson to discuss the findings of their new paper, "Should I Stay or Should I go? The response of labor migration to economic shocks." Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

In early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic struck national economies like a hammer. As the disease spread, workers went home, businesses were empty, and economic indicators crashed. Now, five years later, the U.S. economy looks in many ways like it did pre-pandemic, with GDP back on to the pre-pandemic trend and unemployment down to around 4% after spiking to over 10% in 2020. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Brookings Senior Fellow Louise Sheiner is joined by Harvard University's James Stock to discuss his new paper, "Recovering from COVID," in which he and coauthor Mark Watson of Princeton explore the amazing economic recovery from the pandemic recession and the implications for future policymaking. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

Housing prices nationally are at an all-time high, including in many metro areas that were previously considered affordable alternatives to coastal markets. While prices have been rising over recent decades, the average growth rates of housing stock have been in decline. In a new BPEA paper, Edward Glaeser and Joseph Gyourko explore the evolving dynamics of the U.S. housing market, focusing on six metropolitan areas and in particular on steep housing stock decreases in Sun Belt cities. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Gyourko joins Brookings Vice President and Director of Economic Studies Ben Harris to discuss the paper's findings and potential policies to boost affordable housing supply. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

The discussion dives into the massive U.S. Treasury market, highlighting its crucial role in global finance. Experts explore the impact of federal debt on market stability and the significance of Treasury securities in influencing interest rates. The conversation also covers the dynamics between key players like asset managers and hedge funds, especially during volatile moments like the COVID-19 crisis. Proposed strategies for the Federal Reserve aim to enhance market resilience while addressing risks associated with hedge fund activities.

Maurice Obstfeld, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and author of "The U.S. Trade Deficit: Myths and Realities," dives into the complexities of the U.S. trade deficit. He discusses how domestic policies shape the trade imbalance, rather than just external pressures. The conversation highlights the impact of recent tariffs and examines misconceptions around the trade deficit's causes, including the historic shift from surpluses to persistent deficits. Obstfeld also explores implications for manufacturing jobs and the overall economy.

Christina Romer, Former Chair of the President's Council of Economic Advisors, and Brian Sack, Former Executive VP of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, discuss the Federal Reserve's upcoming 2025 review of its monetary policy framework. They explore how the challenges of the past few years, such as COVID-19 and supply chain issues, have impacted policy effectiveness. The conversation highlights the need for adaptable strategies, critiques previous inflation responses, and suggests improvements in communication and implementation for future monetary policy.