Do US states have different recoveries from economic shocks?
Apr 25, 2024
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Andrew Fieldhouse and David Munro discuss how US states have experienced similar economic recoveries in recent decades, despite historical variations. They explore reasons for this convergence, such as industrial composition and policy implications for federal macroeconomic stabilization. The conversation touches on migration patterns, labor market responses to economic shocks, and the impact of climate shocks on economies.
States' economic recoveries have become more uniform across the US since the late 1950s, showing a national business cycle emergence.
Decline in migration responses to local shocks since the 1980s indicates a need for federal macroeconomic stabilization policies.
Deep dives
Evolution of State Labor Markets' Responses to Shocks
The paper explores how state labor markets respond to shocks over time, focusing on the adjustment without migration. Previous studies showed migration in response to local shocks, but the new data indicates a decline in migration since the 1980s. By analyzing state-level data from 1947, the authors reveal that employment and unemployment responses to shocks remain, but migration has significantly decreased.
Uniform Business Cycles Across States
The research highlights the convergence of business cycles across US states, showing a more uniform experience since the late 1950s. States recover from recessions more similarly, indicating a national business cycle's emergence. Factors contributing to this uniformity include industrial composition similarities and income convergence across states.
Policy Implications and Macroeconomic Stabilization
The findings suggest a need for macroeconomic stabilization policies at the federal level due to states' synchronized economic experiences. The trend of decreased migration responses and the uniformity of business cycles pose challenges for regionally targeted policies. The paper supports using federal policy levers for overall economic recovery, as states experience similar business cycles and recovery rates.
In the mid-20th century, U.S. states experienced recessions very differently from one another, which resulted in many workers migrating between states in search of work. But a newly developed dataset shows that economic recoveries have begun to look very similar across states in recent decades. On this episode, Senior Fellow Louise Sheiner talks with Andrew Fieldhouse and David Munro, authors of a new BPEA study that produced this dataset, “The emergence of a uniform business cycle in the United States.” Their conversation with Sheiner explores the reasons behind the convergence in recession recovery and the policy implications.
The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.
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