The Higher Standard

Real estate brokers across the country are using ChatGPT to pen emails and write property listings. The AI chatbot ChatGPT has made waves in sectors from tech to media since it launched to the public two months ago. As the AI software grows in popularity, people are finding more and more creative ways to put the tech to use — including making it write flowery descriptions for real estate listings. As the technology emerges as a tool for realtors, some experts say AI is well on its way to becoming an industry standard. Use of AI has spread far and wide among realtors. Miami broker Andres Asion has even used the tech to rewrite emails, emphasizing legal liabilities and implications.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine the explosion of AI and its use by business - not to mention its darker uses, such as creating fake social media accounts.They discuss the news that major U.S. stock indexes closed over 1% higher as labor cost data encouraged investors about the Federal Reserve's aggressive approach to taming inflation a day ahead of the central bank's critical policy decision.Chris and Saied look at a report stating that Blackstone, one of the country's biggest landlords, is ramping up evictions to help its struggling real estate investment trust.They also offer some thoughts on news from payroll processing firm ADP, which is reporting that job creation in the private sector plunged in January as weather-related issues kept workers home. Companies added just 106,000 new workers for the month, down from an upwardly revised 253,000 the month before.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:The biggest winners and losers from the Fed's latest interest rate hike.How long it takes for recessionary effects (aka lagging indicators) to show up.Why (and how) people are using AI to create fake social media accounts.Mark Zuckerberg's record $12.5 billion day.And so much more...Resources:"More Americans are falling behind on car payments than during the 2008 financial crisis" (Bloomberg via Instagram)"California DMV is now on the blockchain. Why that’s a bigger deal than you think" (article from Fortune)St. Louis Fed Economic Data"Biggest winners and losers from the Fed’s interest rate hike" (article from Yahoo! Finance)"Wall St gains over 1% after encouraging inflation data with Fed next" (article from Yahoo! Finance)"S&P 500 advances more than 1% to its best level in five months as Meta leads tech-fueled rally" (article from CNBC)"US Job Openings Surge Past 11 Million as Fed Zeros In on Labor" (article from Bloomberg)"Private payroll growth slowed to 106,000 in January as weather hit hiring, ADP says" (article from CNBC)"That real estate listing you just saw for your dream house may have been written by ChatGPT" (article from Business Insider)"Blackstone ramps up tenant evictions" (TheRealDeal via Instagram)"Zuckerberg Gains Record $12.5 Billion in a Day as Meta Rebounds" (article from Bloomberg)

According to an index of building occupancies in 10 major metro areas by security firm Kastle Systems, more than half of workers went to the office last week, the first time that return-to-office rates crossed 50% of their pre-pandemic levels. All of the cities tracked by the company — including San Francisco, Chicago and Austin, Texas — reached return-to-office levels of 40% or above, which was also a post-pandemic first.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this and many other stories and attempt to cut through the spin and the rhetoric to get at the truth.They discuss comments from Starwood Capital's Barry Sternlicht, who said that, if Jerome Powell continues down the path that we're going, he's going to drive the economy into a horrible situation because the government won't be able to afford to pay its bills, and why that thinking is flawed.Chris and Saied look at a survey by Pymnts.com and Lending Club, which indicates that the share of Americans who say they live paycheck-to-paycheck climbed last year to 64%, and most of the new arrivals in that category were earning more than $100,000 a year.They also offer some thoughts on the Fed's decision to reject Wyoming-based crypto-centric bank Custodia's application to become a member of the central bank's exclusive payment system, saying that the firm's proposed business plan, and focus on crypto assets, presented significant safety and soundness risks.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why the Fed rejected Custodia's application to join the US payment system.Why the market's reactions are disconnected from what the Fed is trying to accomplish.The five types of treasury securitiesThe importance of staying true to your budget when looking for a home.And so much more...Resources:"Fed rejects crypto bank’s application to join U.S. payment system" (article from MarketWatch)"Inflation Fell but so Did Spending. The Economic Signals Are Both Good and Bad" (article from Barron's)"National home prices have further to fall, say 24 leading housing market researchers—while 5 firms think prices have bottomed" (article from Fortune)"Wall Street Is Losing Out to Amateur Buyers in the Housing Slump" (article from Bloomberg)"US offices reach 50% occupancy for the first time since Covid" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)"More Americans are living paycheque-to-paycheque, even those on more than $100,000" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index, mortgage interest rates fell for the third straight week, while mortgage demand also rose again. Total application volume increased 7% last week compared with the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) decreased to 6.2% from 6.23%, with points increasing to 0.69 from 0.67 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. That rate was just about half that one year ago.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the housing market and the economy as a whole.They discuss data released by the Salt Lake Board of Realtors on their UtahRealEstate.com website, which states that Utah’s most populated county, Salt Lake County, has seen its first year-over-year decline in housing prices since 2011.Chris and Saied look at Goldman Sachs' forecast of record drops in San Diego's home prices, saying that home values will fall at levels similar to the 2008 crash. The predictions indicate that San Diego, San Jose, Austin, and Phoenix will see declines of more than 25%.They also offer some thoughts on the rise of fourth-quarter gross domestic product of 2.9%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected a reading of 2.8%.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why the World Economic Forum is not a true economic forum.Why GDP is a good indicator for a recessionary economy.The concept of student loan forbearance.How the Federal Reserve pulls money out of the system.And so much more...Resources:"Most economists expect a US recession in 2023, but nailing the timing is a tall order" (Bloomberg Businessweek via Instagram)"Two in three Americans cannot cover a $400 emergency expense" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)"Money Supply Shrinks for the First Time. What It Says About Inflation and the Economy." (article from Barron's)"Want To Know Where House Prices Are Heading In 2023? Watch Mortgage Rates" (article from Forbes)"Salt Lake County, Utah housing prices drop 6% — the first year-over-year decline in 11 years" (article from Deseret News)"Goldman Sachs forecasts 2008-sized crash in San Diego housing market" (CBS8 via Instagram)"U.S. GDP rose 2.9% in the fourth quarter, more than expected even as recession fears loom" (article from CNBC)"'Big Short' Burry Suggests the Stock Market Jump Is a Mirage" (article from The Street)"BofA warns that the US economy will begin to lose 175,000 jobs per month in Q1 of 2023, expects a ‘harder landing’ rather than a softer one — here’s why" (article from Yahoo! Finance)"Weekly mortgage demand jumps 7% as interest rates drop to lowest level since September" (article from CNBC)New York Fed Website - Domestic Security HoldingsBureau of Economic Analysis for GDP

The job cuts in the tech industry continue to pile up. Google announced plans to lay off 12,000 people from its workforce, while Microsoft said that it’s letting go of 10,000 employees. Amazon also began a fresh round of job cuts that are expected to eliminate more than 18,000 employees and become the largest workforce reduction in the e-retailer’s 28-year history. The layoffs come in a period of slowing growth, higher interest rates to battle inflation, and fears of a possible recession next year.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and as always, attempt to determine how it affects the economy as a whole.They discuss a report from the Commercial Observer, based on data from Cushman and Wakefield, which shows that the vacancy rate in the fourth quarter for shopping centers was 5.7 percent, the lowest level in 15 years.Chris and Saied look at an item from CNN stating that the US hit the debt ceiling set by Congress on Thursday, forcing the Treasury Department to start taking extraordinary measures to keep the government paying its bills and escalating pressure on Capitol Hill to avoid a catastrophic default.They also offer some thoughts on the unexpected drop in unemployment benefits claims that occurred last week, suggesting a tight labor market, despite higher interest rates.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:The debt ceiling: What it is and why it matters.Why home sales have slumped to a 12-year low.How much of the return to offices is because of executive level productivity vs. morale.The problem with ego and the distorted reality it can create.And so much more...Resources:"US hits debt ceiling, prompting Treasury to take extraordinary measures" (article from CNN Politics)"Google, Microsoft, Amazon and other tech companies have laid off more than 70,000 employees in the last year" (article from CNBC)"US shopping center vacancy hits 15-year low" (The Real Deal via Instagram)"The curtain is closing on these Regal theaters in SoCal" (NBCLA via Instagram)"U.S. home sales slump to 12-year low; glimmers of hope emerging" (article from Reuters)"U.S. will hit its debt limit Thursday, start taking steps to avoid default, Yellen warns Congress" (article from CNBC)"Tamer CPI Inflation Rate Should Keep S&P 500 Rallying Until The Fed Meeting" (article from Investor's Business Daily)"Economists in WSJ Survey Still See Recession This Year Despite Easing Inflation" (article from The Wall Street Journal)"Inflation isn't coming down without a recession and interest rates will continue to skyrocket, JPMorgan Asset Management investment chief says" (article from Yahoo! Finance)"Wholesale prices fell 0.5% in December, much more than expected; retail sales fall" (article from CNBC)"U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fall" (article from CNBC)"Google employees scramble for answers after layoffs hit long-tenured and recently promoted employees" (article from CNBC)"Spotify cuts 6% of its workforce — read the memo CEO Daniel Ek sent to staff" (article from CNBC)

The SEC are suing two crypto brokerages - Genesis Global Capital and Gemini Trust Co. - for breaking securities rules. The SEC says that the firms illegally raised billions of dollars from hundreds of thousands of investors through the so-called Gemini Earn program. That product, which let customers loan out their assets in exchange for interest payments, amounted to the offering of unregistered securities. Gemini launched Earn in February of 2021, with the idea of offering users passive returns on their coins in exchange for the right to lend the tokens out. By August, the program, which offered rates that far exceeded those on traditional bank accounts, crossed $3 billion in assets.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and try to determine what it means for the embattled crypto industry as a whole.They discuss the problem with fake followers and accounts on social media and how people can use these tactics to attack others and get social accounts blocked or even banned.Chris and Saied look at the difficulty with artificial intelligence and why Congress may be too late to the party in trying to regulate it and anything to do with the internet.They also offer some thoughts on a reportedly 'risky' move by American Express, in which they have reinvented the Platinum card to make it more desirable to younger urbanites, increasing the annual fee well above those of its competitors - a strategy which seems to have worked.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why it's now possible to 'buy now, pay later' on things like pizza.Why Chris thinks Shark Tank is just a money grab and why he dislikes Kevin O'Leary.JP Morgan’s claim that it was 'duped' into acquiring fintech startup Frank, due to lies about Frank's scale and success, created by an enormous list of fake users.A look at the due diligence process for a bank during the acquisition process.And so much more...Resources:"FTX finds over $5 billion in liquid assets, judge extends ruling keeping creditor names secret" (article from Yahoo! Finance)"Microsoft reportedly plans to invest $10 billion in creator of buzzy A.I. tool ChatGPT" (article from CNBC)"Coinbase to lay off 20% of workers in latest sign of crypto industry pain" (article from Yahoo! Finance)"The SEC is suing crypto brokerages Genesis and Gemini" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)"The ‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ Bubble Is About to Burst" (article from The Atlantic)"AmEx Hooked Big Spenders and Regained the Throne With a Pricier Platinum Card" (article from Bloomberg)"Inside the Secretive World of Shark Tank Deals: Who the Real Winners are" (Forbes via Instagram)"JP Morgan says startup founder used millions of fake customers to dupe it into an acquisition" (Forbes via Instagram)"Stan Smith Shoes" (Addidas)https://presyon.com/collections/supplements/products/organic-greens-superfood

Following a spike at the end of 2022, mortgage rates dropped sharply last week, driving demand from current homeowners hoping to save on their monthly payments, though it failed to excite potential homebuyers. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index is reporting that the total mortgage application volume rose 1.2% last week compared with the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances decreased to 6.42% from 6.58%, with points remaining at 0.73 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. That rate was 3.52% just a year ago.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and try to make sense of what it means for the housing market and the economy as a whole.They discuss the effects recessions have had on the energy sector historically, such as lower oil demand, as well as a comment by Jerome Powell stating that price stability is the bedrock of a healthy economy.Chris and Saied look at comments from Ron Insana from Contrast Capital, stating that the current data don’t support concerns by the Fed and many other economists who worry about an emergent wage/price spiral.They also offer some thoughts on the precedents that were set by the acquisition of Union Bank by US Bancorp, and how that has affected other banks, such as embattled Wells Fargo.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:The latest CPI report and what it means for inflation and the economy.Why the World Bank's statement about cutting its 2023 forecasts is not nearly as ominous as it sounds.The unconstitutional nature of Biden's student loan forgiveness plan.Why the job numbers appear to still be relatively strong, despite mass layoffs happening across several sectors.And so much more...Resources:"Inflation is easing, even if it may not feel that way" (article from NPR)"Insana says the case is clear that inflation is over" (article from CNBC)"Mortgage refinance demand surges, as homeowners take advantage of lower interest rates" (article from CNBC)"The World Bank is cutting its 2023 forecasts and warning of a global recession" (Bloomberg Businessweek via Instagram)"Forget Core CPI, Market Pros Are Searching for Supercore Inflation" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

In today's episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied sit down with Andy Tran, photographer, YouTuber and owner of Andy's Cuts Barbershop, a classic barbershop specializing in modern and old-school haircuts, based out of Fountain Valley, California.Andy explains his path to creating Andy's Cuts, from running down a YoutTube 'rabbit hole' looking for hairstyle inspiration to finally deciding to enter barber college and learn to do it for himself.They discuss the now-famous 10,000 hour rule, and how Andy realized that to be successful, he had to work harder and put in more time than anyone else.Andy shares the lessons he learned opening his barbershop, and the many steps necessary when opening a brick-and-mortar location - steps that many new business owners fail to think about prior to opening.They also discuss Andy's OTHER career as a photographer, one born out of YouTube, where he discusses camera equipment and photography with his 5K+ subscriber base.Join Chris, Saied and Andy for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Andy's path from YouTube viewer to photographer/hairstylist/YouTube personalityThe importance of the 10,000 hour rule.The lessons Andy learned working (and negotiating) with large companies interested in his YouTube videos.Why Andy wants to set up the barbershop so that it can run without him and he can focus on content creation.And so much more...Resources:Andy's CutsAndy's Cuts InstagramAndy Tran YouTube

Technology-driven companies across industries have been laying off workers at the fastest pace since the Covid-19 pandemic shocked the global economy in 2020. Employers in the tech sector cut more than 150,000 jobs in 2022, based on estimates from Layoffs.fyi.That figure compares with about 80,000 layoffs in March-December 2020 and 15,000 in all of 2021.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this latest news and offer some insights as to the effects it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss the concept of the 'everything bubble,' and the reasons why many economists believe that years of loose monetary policies from the Fed and other central banks following the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) helped create it.Chris and Saied look at a report stating that used car prices paid by wholesalers fell the most on a yearly basis since at least the late 1990s - a decline that could help the fight against inflation.They also offer some thoughts on a leaked email from Disney CEO Bob Iger, telling hybrid employees they must return to corporate offices four days a week starting March 1.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:The 'everything bubble:' What it is, where it came from, and why it's now popping.Why social media is no longer 'social' - it’s an online business.The bright spots that exist in the economy during the recession.The difference between low-cost index funds and mutual funds.And so much more...Resources:"U.S. labor market powers ahead, but wage growth loses steam" (article from Reuters)"Tech layoffs are happening faster than at any time during the pandemic" (The Wall Street Journal via Instagram)"Tech Layoffs Are Happening Faster Than at Any Time During the Pandemic" (article from The Wall Street Journal)"The ‘everything bubble’ has popped and the experts on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley were spectacularly wrong about a ton of things" (article from Fortune)"Used car prices post biggest drop on record - and have 'much further to fall’” (Forbes via Instagram)"Meta updates property listing policy, riling agents" (The Real Deal via Instagram)"Bob Iger tells Disney employees they must return to the office four days a week" (article from CNBC)"Party City prepares to file for bankruptcy" (The Real Deal via Instagram)"Job openings hold strong despite rate hikes; manufacturing in contraction" (article from CNBC)"2022 was the worst-ever year for U.S. bonds. How to position your portfolio for 2023" (article from CNBC)

The idea that rates could come down in 2023 appears to be wishful thinking, according to minutes released from the Federal Reserve's December meeting. At a meeting where policymakers raised their key interest rate another half a percentage point, they expressed the importance of keeping restrictive policy in place while inflation holds unacceptably high. The increase ended a streak of four consecutive three-quarter point rate hikes, while taking the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate to 4.25%-4.5%, its highest level in 15 years.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this latest episode in the continuing fight against inflation, and offer their own insights as to its meaning and impact.They discuss a report stating that real estate broker Compass is about to engage in more layoffs, the third round since June of 2022 and the final wave of staff cuts needed to become cash-flow positive by mid-2023.⁠Chris and Saied look at a report from Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel showing that Manhattan apartment sales fell by 29% in the fourth quarter, sparking fears of a frozen market in which buyers and sellers stay on the sidelines due to economic and rate fears.They also offer some thoughts on business growth in a recessionary economy - most businesses won't try to grow, merely focusing on maintaining their capital, but some will be able to do so, in spite of the recession.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why companies such as Compass, Amazon and Salesforce are cutting more jobs than originally thought.Why Moody's Analytics' chief economist is calling for a 'slowcession.'The impact of private payrolls rising by 235,000 for December, above the 153,000 Dow Jones estimate.Why the FTC is considering banning noncompete clauses for workers.And so much more...Resources:"The U.S. might avoid a full-out recession, but get ready for a ‘slowcession’ says one of the first economists to predict the 2008 financial crash" (article from Fortune)"The US is in a recession 'by any definition,' 'The Big Short' investor Michael Burry says." (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)"Shopify tells employees to cancel all recurring meetings with more than two people" (Business Week via Instagram)"Compass executes third layoffs in one year" (The Real Deal via Instagram)"Silvergate Raced to Cover $8.1 Billion in Withdrawals During Crypto Meltdown" (article from the Wall Street Journal)"Private payroll growth surged by 235,000 in December, well above estimate, ADP reports" (article from CNBC)"Fed officials see higher rates for ‘some time’ ahead" (article from CNBC)"Fed minutes: No rate cuts in 2023, inflation risk remains in focus" (article from Yahoo! Finance)"Manhattan apartment sales plunge in fourth quarter as brokers fear a frozen market" (article from CNBC)(Chris Naghibi via Instagram)"Amazon says it will cut over 18,000 jobs, more than initially planned" (article from CNBC)"Salesforce is cutting 10% of its personnel, more than 7,000 employees" (article from CNBC)"FTC Proposes Banning Noncompete Clauses for Workers" (article from the Wall Street Journal)

Ten years. That's how long we can expect to see sluggish growth in the global economy, at least according to Daniel Lacalle, author and chief economist at Tressis Gestion. Events such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s persistent zero-Covid measures have sent shockwaves through economies around the world, sending inflation soaring and weakening activity. The IMF now projects that global GDP growth will slow from 6% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023. The Fund called it “the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic.”In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine Lacalle's comments and the projections of the IMF to try and determine the effect they will have on the economy.They discuss comments from Scion Asset Management founder and The Big Short investor Michael Burry, who has stated that while inflation has peaked, it is likely to pick up again in response to government stimulus. ⁣Chris and Saied look at the prevalence of fake followers on social media, particularly Instagram, and the effect that can have on a business.They also offer some thoughts on the CATO Institute's 2022 Housing Affordability National Survey, which indicates that around 55% of Americans say they cannot afford to buy their home in today's market, resulting in the second biggest home price correction of the post-WWII era.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why home prices have gone up 46% in the period of two years in some markets.The differences between business loans and single-family residence loans.Why rental rates are on the downward trend in most states.Why luxury home sales have been experiencing the biggest decline on record.And so much more...Resources:"The Washington State AG has sued a plastic surgery provider for manipulating customer reviews and buying fake Instagram followers." (Robert Freund via Twitter)"The US is in a recession 'by any definition,' 'The Big Short' investor Michael Burry says." (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)"US suffering from the second biggest home price correction of the post-WWII era" (article from Fox Business)"Nevada rent prices see greatest decline nationwide, report shows" (article from the Washington Examiner)"Global economy is heading into a decade of low growth, economist says" (article from CNBC)"Deep freeze: Luxury home sales suffer biggest hit on record" (The Real Deal via Instagram)"Luxury-Home Sales Sink 38%, the Biggest Decline on Record" (article from Redfin)"Here's how much housing affordability tanked this year" (article from Yahoo! Finance)