The Higher Standard More Art Than Science, Utah Stumbles and Paper Ass Gaskets
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index, mortgage interest rates fell for the third straight week, while mortgage demand also rose again. Total application volume increased 7% last week compared with the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) decreased to 6.2% from 6.23%, with points increasing to 0.69 from 0.67 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. That rate was just about half that one year ago.
In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the housing market and the economy as a whole.
They discuss data released by the Salt Lake Board of Realtors on their UtahRealEstate.com website, which states that Utah’s most populated county, Salt Lake County, has seen its first year-over-year decline in housing prices since 2011.
Chris and Saied look at Goldman Sachs' forecast of record drops in San Diego's home prices, saying that home values will fall at levels similar to the 2008 crash. The predictions indicate that San Diego, San Jose, Austin, and Phoenix will see declines of more than 25%.
They also offer some thoughts on the rise of fourth-quarter gross domestic product of 2.9%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected a reading of 2.8%.
Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.
Enjoy!
What You’ll Learn in this Show:
- Why the World Economic Forum is not a true economic forum.
- Why GDP is a good indicator for a recessionary economy.
- The concept of student loan forbearance.
- How the Federal Reserve pulls money out of the system.
- And so much more...
Resources:
"Most economists expect a US recession in 2023, but nailing the timing is a tall order" (Bloomberg Businessweek via Instagram)
"Two in three Americans cannot cover a $400 emergency expense" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)
"Money Supply Shrinks for the First Time. What It Says About Inflation and the Economy." (article from Barron's)
"Want To Know Where House Prices Are Heading In 2023? Watch Mortgage Rates" (article from Forbes)
"Salt Lake County, Utah housing prices drop 6% — the first year-over-year decline in 11 years" (article from Deseret News)
"Goldman Sachs forecasts 2008-sized crash in San Diego housing market" (CBS8 via Instagram)
"U.S. GDP rose 2.9% in the fourth quarter, more than expected even as recession fears loom" (article from CNBC)
"'Big Short' Burry Suggests the Stock Market Jump Is a Mirage" (article from The Street)
"BofA warns that the US economy will begin to lose 175,000 jobs per month in Q1 of 2023, expects a ‘harder landing’ rather than a softer one — here’s why" (article from Yahoo! Finance)
"Weekly mortgage demand jumps 7% as interest rates drop to lowest level since September" (article from CNBC)
New York Fed Website - Domestic Security Holdings
Bureau of Economic Analysis for GDP