The Higher Standard Good News we are in Slowcession, Banks are Challenged and Saied Doesn't Read the Show Notes
The idea that rates could come down in 2023 appears to be wishful thinking, according to minutes released from the Federal Reserve's December meeting. At a meeting where policymakers raised their key interest rate another half a percentage point, they expressed the importance of keeping restrictive policy in place while inflation holds unacceptably high. The increase ended a streak of four consecutive three-quarter point rate hikes, while taking the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate to 4.25%-4.5%, its highest level in 15 years.
In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this latest episode in the continuing fight against inflation, and offer their own insights as to its meaning and impact.
They discuss a report stating that real estate broker Compass is about to engage in more layoffs, the third round since June of 2022 and the final wave of staff cuts needed to become cash-flow positive by mid-2023.
Chris and Saied look at a report from Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel showing that Manhattan apartment sales fell by 29% in the fourth quarter, sparking fears of a frozen market in which buyers and sellers stay on the sidelines due to economic and rate fears.
They also offer some thoughts on business growth in a recessionary economy - most businesses won't try to grow, merely focusing on maintaining their capital, but some will be able to do so, in spite of the recession.
Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.
Enjoy!
What You’ll Learn in this Show:
- Why companies such as Compass, Amazon and Salesforce are cutting more jobs than originally thought.
- Why Moody's Analytics' chief economist is calling for a 'slowcession.'
- The impact of private payrolls rising by 235,000 for December, above the 153,000 Dow Jones estimate.
- Why the FTC is considering banning noncompete clauses for workers.
- And so much more...
Resources:
"The U.S. might avoid a full-out recession, but get ready for a ‘slowcession’ says one of the first economists to predict the 2008 financial crash" (article from Fortune)
"The US is in a recession 'by any definition,' 'The Big Short' investor Michael Burry says." (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)
"Shopify tells employees to cancel all recurring meetings with more than two people" (Business Week via Instagram)
"Compass executes third layoffs in one year" (The Real Deal via Instagram)
"Silvergate Raced to Cover $8.1 Billion in Withdrawals During Crypto Meltdown" (article from the Wall Street Journal)
"Private payroll growth surged by 235,000 in December, well above estimate, ADP reports" (article from CNBC)
"Fed officials see higher rates for ‘some time’ ahead" (article from CNBC)
"Fed minutes: No rate cuts in 2023, inflation risk remains in focus" (article from Yahoo! Finance)
"Manhattan apartment sales plunge in fourth quarter as brokers fear a frozen market" (article from CNBC)
"Amazon says it will cut over 18,000 jobs, more than initially planned" (article from CNBC)
"Salesforce is cutting 10% of its personnel, more than 7,000 employees" (article from CNBC)
"FTC Proposes Banning Noncompete Clauses for Workers" (article from the Wall Street Journal)