The Human Risk Podcast

What is livescribing? On this episode, I speak to an artist with a unique creative talent. Hannah Williams is the founder of Scribble Inc. and her talent is that she can summarise presentations and discussions in beautiful pieces of art that fuse words and images. You'll find links to examples below.I met Hannah at a conference called Speak to the Human, an annual event, organised by Acteon Communication. You can read more about it here.Hannah livescribed all the presentations and sessions that day, including mine. You can see a video of her in action here and the live scribe of my presentation here:The reason I wanted to get Hannah onto the show is because she has some fascinating perspectives from having spent hours observing humans and summarising their thoughts and ideas. Her lens on people can teach us a lot about human risk. In our discussion, we explore:how Hannah came to become a livescribe after realising she had a talent for it;the role of live scribing in facilitating personal expression, fostering inclusion, and promoting understanding;how restrictions can enhance creativity, and how, counterintuitively, controlling the environment can stimulate creative flow;Hannah’s transitioned from being an artist to entrepreneur and how she balances her business decisions with personal values;the power of visual representation in communicating energy facilitating self-reflection and impriving our memory;and much, much more.You can find out more about Hannah and Scribble Inc and see examples of her work on the Scribble Inc website.

Why are we so reliant on models, how can they lead us astray, and what can we do about it?On this episode, I’m exploring models. Of the mathematical kind, not the fashion or toy kind. Models interest me because so much of our world is run by them. Many of the things we take for granted in the 21st century have models either running or helping to run them. When they work well, they enable things to happen that wouldn’t otherwise. But when they go wrong – as we’ve seen in the banking industry — there are serious consequences. The Human Risk angle on models is that models are designed, commissioned and used by people. As we know from people who blindly follow their GPS unit and drive into a river, we can often assume the models must be right. But what’s right in theory might not be in practice. The real world is often complex, and models don’t always capture nuances.My guest is Dr. Erica Thompson. She’s the author of a fascinating book called ‘Escape from Model land: How mathematical models can lead us astray and what we can do about it’. Erica is an Associate Professor of Modelling for Decision Making at University College Londons ’s Department of Science, Technology, Engineering and Public Policy. She’s also a Fellow of the London Mathematical Laboratory, where she leads the research programme on Inference from Models, and a Visiting Senior Fellow at the LSE Data Science Institute. So, she’s very highly qualified to help us explore what models are, why they can go wrong and what we can do about it.On the show, we talk about:the use of models in decision-making across various contexts such as climate, insurance, finance, and economic risk assessment';the limitations and complexities of models, particularly when predicting the physical impacts of climate change over the 21st century;the importance of understanding and acknowledging the uncertainties and potential risks in manipulating models;the significance of diversity in models and the concept of maximizing model diversity for robust and accurate inference;the challenges of shifting to new models that can effectively represent different values and judgments and the difficulty in changing the system when vested interests and incentives are not aligned;the importance of trust and the need for experts to be deeply embedded within society and responsive to its values; andthe role of science in shaping our optimism and understanding of challenges and the need for a more nuanced viewpoint about science and society.To learn more about Erica, visit her personal website: https://www.ericathompson.co.uk/For more on her book 'Escape from Model Land', visit https://www.ericathompson.co.uk/books/To see episodes of the show you might have missed, visit www.humanriskpodcast.com

What can music teach us about human behaviour? What impact is remote and hybrid working having on employee conduct? How might we misjudge the risks posed by AI?If these seem like a broad range of topics that have little in common, then you’re right and wrong. You’re right that they’re broad, but you’re wrong that they have little in common. My guest, Dr. Roger Miles, is a friend of the show — he’s been on it before (links to those episodes below) — and they’re all relevant to his work and interests.Since I was recording at the world-famous Abbey Road studios in London, I thought having music fan and musician Roger in the studio would be a good idea. Not just to hear from him about music but also to catch up on what he’s been doing and hear his insights on current affairs and recent trends.For more about Roger, visit his website: https://www.drrmiles.com/aboutHis books: https://www.koganpage.com/authors/roger-milesTo hear the previous times Roger has been on the show: Roger on Conduct Risk: https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/dr-roger-miles-on-conduct/Roger on Conduct Risk under COVID: https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/human-risk-webinar-recording-conduct/During the show, we talk about:The Barclays Bank ‘OccupEye’ tracking software: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-18/barclays-puts-in-sensors-to-see-which-bankers-are-at-their-desksHannah Arendt: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannah_Arendt Professor Barry Rider: https://www.jesus.cam.ac.uk/people/barry-rider-obe-phd-lld The Center for Human Technology: https://www.humanetech.com/ The famous train accident in Paris where the train literally left the station; https://www.midnight-trains.com/post/the-railway-disaster-at-the-gare-montparnasse The VIP killed by the train he was there to launch: https://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/from-the-archive-blog/2011/may/06/newspapers-national-newspapers2? The FInancial Markets Standards Board Behavioural Cluster Analysis: https://fmsb.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/BCA_v32_1.pdf ‘Metaphors We Live By’ by George Lakoff and Mark Johnson: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaphors_We_Live_By Diane Vaughan’s book on the Challenger disaster ‘The Challenger Launch Decision’ - https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/C/bo22781921.html The review of conduct in London’s Metropolitan Police Force: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cw9d1pgzlyvt The corporate violation tracker: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cw9d1pgzlyvt The British Post Office Scandal: https://www.postofficescandal.uk/ You can hear Nick Wallis talk about his book on the scandal on this show: https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/nick-wallis-on-the-great-post-office-scandal/ ‘The Blunders of Our Governments’ by Anthony King and Ivor Crewe: https://www.simonandschuster.co.uk/books/The-Blunders-of-Our-Governments/Anthony-King/9781780746180

How well do we really know those who are closest to us? That’s the question that is behind ‘The Wolf Hunt’, a new novel by Israeli author Ayelet Gundar-Goshen. She's my guest on this very special episode.In a first for the show, I’m interviewing the author of a piece of fiction. Ayelet isn’t just a writer. She’s also a clinical psychologist, which informs both her content and the way in which she writes her narratives.The Wolf Hunt is the story of a mother who begins to suspect her teenage son of committing a terrible crime. Lilach, the main protagonist, seems to have it all: a beautiful home in the heart of Silicon Valley, a community of other Israeli immigrants, a happy marriage and a close relationship with her teenage son, Adam. But when a local synagogue is brutally attacked, her shy, reclusive son is compelled to join a self-defence class taught by a former Israeli Special Forces officer. Then, a Black teenager dies at a house party, and rumours begin to circulate that Adam and his new friends might have been involved. As scrutiny begins to invade Lilach's peaceful home and her family’s stability is threatened, will her own fears be the greatest danger of all? It’s a fascinating and engaging storyline. And, as you’ll hear, it was inspired by a simple question Ayelet asked herself when she was dropping her daughter off at school. In our discussion, we explore: Ayelet's journey as a writer and what inspires her to write;the psychological themes that underpin her work and how her personal experiences, both as a psychologist but also as a mother and individual, shape her narratives;The particular experiences and stories she’s been told that led to The Wolf Hunt;How literature serves as a universal mirror reflecting our experiences and biasesAnd so much more.For more on The Wolf Hunt, visit https://pushkinpress.com/books/the-wolf-hunt/.It's available in all major bookstores.To read articles she's written for Time magazine: https://time.com/author/ayelet-gundar-goshen-2/Since this is the first fiction writer I've had on the show, let me know what you think about the idea of doing more of this type of interview. If you like it, should it be part of the main show or a separate one? If you don't, why not!

Bent Flyvbjerg, Danish economic geographer, discusses the pivotal role of human risk in mega-projects, cognitive and power biases, simplicity in project governance, data collection, storytelling and availability bias, challenges of conducting research in China, reference star forecasting, Warren Buffett's views on compound interest, 'fat tails' and risk management in mega-projects.

Dr. Kelly Richmond Pope, an expert in forensic accounting, discusses scams, stories, and secrets behind fraud. She explores what drives people to commit fraud and the motivations of whistleblowers. The impact on victims, the importance of catching small incidents of fraud, and the role of technology in preventing fraud are also discussed. She challenges the misconception that only evil people commit fraud and emphasizes the need for a comprehensive understanding of fraud and its motivations.

How can we design incentive programmes that deliver the right outcomes and avoid the wrong ones? We're all familiar with teh idea of rewards to encourage good behaviour and punishment to deter bad behaviour. Incentive programmes are common because they're effective. But they often come with unintended consequences.On this episode, I'm speaking to a former colleague of mine, Bruce Rigal. He began his career in Investment Banking — where we worked together — before, like me, moving into Behavioural Science. As part of his role in banking, Bruce was responsible for the development of an incentive program within a bank, making him the ideal person to talk to about the challenges of developing ones that will deliver the right outcomes.In our discussion, we talk about:Professor Elke Weber: https://psych.princeton.edu/people/elke-weberProfessor Sam Peltzman: https://www.chicagobooth.edu/faculty/emeriti/sam-peltzman The Peltzman Effect: https://tradestops.com/blog/the-peltzman-effect-how-safety-perception-increases-risk/ (Original paper here:https://www.jstor.org/stable/1830396)The impact of rewards on intrinsic motivation in children: https://bingschool.stanford.edu/news/mark-lepper-intrinsic-motivation-extrinsic-motivation-and-process-learningTo connect with Bruce: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bruce-rigal-6799a545/For more on my book 'Humanizing Rules: Bringing Behavioural Science to Ethics & Compliance' and to read the first few chapters for free: www.humanizingrules.com

How can we be more in the moment in meetings, conversations and presentations? On this episode, I'm speaking to communications expert and comedian Neil Mullarkey.In his new book 'In The Moment', Neil explores how we can use the ideas that underpin improv comedy to improve our confidence, communication and creativity. In our discussion, we explore: how Neil came to work in Improv Comedy, how Mike Myers inspired his career and why he enjoys improvisation;how that translates into working in business to build creativity;the need for structures such as rules, methodologies and processes in order for creativity to be able to flourish;the difference between Newtonian and Darwinian dynamics in the workplace;lessons from the pandemic about working practices;And so much more...To find out more about:Neil: https://neilmullarkey.com/In The Moment: https://neilmullarkey.com/inthemomentbookThe Comedy Store Players: https://comedystoreplayers.com/For more on my new book, 'Humanizing Rules: Bringing Behaviorual Science to Ethics & Compliance' and read the first few chapters for free: www.humanizing.rules.comIf you enjoyed this episode, then I also recommend listening to this episode where I spoke with comedy writer Paul Dornan: https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/paul-dornan-on-being-truly-funny/

Behavioral Science gurus Paul Craven, Rory Sutherland, and Gerald Ashley discuss a range of fascinating topics in this podcast. They explore addictive substances, the impact of bus details, airline upgrade policies, and the value of higher education. They also delve into the certainty of beliefs and contradicting evidence, the left and right brain, the rise and fall of civilizations, the value of YouTube, and appreciation for the Seekers band in a world-famous music studio.

Behavioural Science gurus Rory Sutherland, Gerald Ashley, and Paul Craven explore the influence of individuals on trends and the adoption of new technologies. They discuss super-spreaders, the impact of fashion icons, and the challenges faced by electric vehicles. The speakers also reflect on government decisions during the pandemic, perceptions of monarchy, and the importance of owning a phrase in marketing.