Australia in the World

In the spirit of trying to channel his obsession with the US election in a (somewhat) productive way, Darren welcomes back Andrew Phillips from the University of Queensland to talk through the extent to which Trump is a ‘normal’ political candidate versus an existential threat to US democracy. Along the way, Darren cannot resist the temptation to introduce Francis Fukuyama’s “last man” model of political resistance, often overlooked when his “End of History” thesis is discussed. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Sohrab Ahmari, “There is an intellectual sickness on the American right”, The New Statesman, 11 September 2024: https://www.newstatesman.com/world/americas/north-america/us/2024/09/there-is-an-intellectual-sickness-on-the-american-right Andrew Dougall, Mediatizing the Nation, Ordering the World, Oxford University Press, 2024: https://global.oup.com/academic/product/mediatizing-the-nation-ordering-the-world-9780198882114?lang=en&cc=ru Zhang, F.J. “Political endorsement by Nature and trust in scientific expertise during COVID-19”, Nat Hum Behav 7, 696–706 (2023): https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-023-01537-5 Tyler Cowen, “How public intellectuals can extend their shelf lives”, Marginal Revolution, 6 February 2020: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/02/how-public-intellectuals-can-extend-their-shelf-lives.html Miss Americana (documentary): https://www.netflix.com/au/title/81028336 The Ezra Klein Show, “On Children, Meaning, Media and Psychedelics”, 3 September 2024: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/03/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-jia-tolentino.html The Ezra Klein Show, “Zadie Smith on Populists, Frauds and Flip Phones”, 17 September 2024: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/17/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-zadie-smith.html Linkin Park, “The Emptiness Machine” (Official Music Video): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRXH9AbT280 The Deep Life by Cal Newport (podcast): https://www.thedeeplife.com/listen/

Stephen Dziedzic of the ABC recently reported from the Pacific Islands Forum leaders retreat in Tonga. He joins Darren to unpack a very interesting meeting, focusing in particular on the Pacific Policing Initiative (and PM Albanese’s discussions with US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, unintentionally recorded on camera) and a reference to Taiwan included in the original communique that was subsequently removed after Beijing forcefully objected (with another interesting exchange caught on camera). Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Stephen Dziedzic, “Pacific Islands leaders endorse regional policing initiative in strategic victory for Australia”, ABC News, 28 August: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-28/vanuatu-melanesia-officials-warn-policing-could-block-china/104277614 Stephen Dziedzic, “Anthony Albanese caught on camera joking about Pacific Policing Initiative with top US official Kurt Campbell”, ABC News, 29 August: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-29/albanese-top-us-official-filmed-in-private-chat-pacific/104283976 Stephen Dziedzic, “Pacific Islands Forum says error to blame for Taiwan reference in communique that angered China”, ABC News, 2 September: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-02/pacific-islands-forum-meeting-taiwan-reference-china-ambassador/104299186 John Le Carré, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (novel): https://www.penguin.com.au/authors/john-le-carre Odd Lots (Podcast), “How the White House Thinks About Economic Security”, 15 August: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-15/white-house-advisor-daleep-singh-on-economic-security?srnd=oddlots

One year ago, the Albanese Labor government launched the “New International Development Policy”. Darren invites back Bridi Rice, CEO of the Canberra-based Development Intelligence Lab, to assess where the policy stands 12 months in. They review the initial logic of the policy and discuss the role of Development Partnership Plans, the first two (for PNG and Indonesia) having been published. The discussion returns to the topic of integrating development practice and foreign policy, with the Falepili Union between Australia and Tuvalu used as an example. Darren also seeks Bridi’s views on “non-traditional” development policies like Taiwan and AUKUS!   Correction: The statistics in the think tank report are “Australia spends approximately $64b per year on foreign affairs, defence, development and intelligence. The total annual turnover among think tanks is around $64m". Bridi said $70b/$70m on the recording.   Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links DFAT “New International Development Policy” (2023): https://www.dfat.gov.au/development/new-international-development-policy DFAT, Australia’s – Papua New Guinea Development Partnership Plan 2024 – 2029: https://www.dfat.gov.au/publications/development/australias-papua-new-guinea-development-partnership-plan-2024-2029 DFAT, Australia – Indonesia Development Partnership Plan 2024-2028, https://www.dfat.gov.au/publications/development/australia-indonesia-development-partnership-plan-2024-2028 The Readout (podcast), “The Hon Pat Conroy x Australia's International Development Policy Anniversary Event”, 22 August 2024: https://www.devintelligencelab.com/readout/s6-patconroy William Leben and Bridi Rice, “Australia’s strategic policy think tank landscape”, June 2024: https://www.devintelligencelab.com/analyses/australias-strategic-policy-think-tank-landscape William Barton (composer): https://anam.com.au/theanamset/composers/williambarton Theodore Ell, Lebanon Days: Memories of an ancient land through economic meltdown, a revolution of hope and surviving the 2020 Beirut explosion, Allen & Unwin: https://www.allenandunwin.com/browse/book/Theodore-Ell-Lebanon-Days-9781922928054

It is impossible to look away from US politics at the moment, and so Darren cannot help but keep his focus on the presidential election. Yet beyond the horse race are larger questions about the health of democracy in the US and indeed around the world, given the pressures democratic systems everywhere are facing. Trump’s unconventional (to say the least) political conduct reveals the seams or weaknesses in democratic systems that might have been difficult to see clearly in times of stability. The role of the media is one such example. While voters have been saying for months that Biden’s age is a problem, the relative silence in mainstream media on the issue (at least until after the first debate) arguably did not serve the interests of US democracy. To unpack this issue and many others besides, Darren is joined by Eliza Harvey. Eliza is the Executive Producer of the ABC panel discussion program Q+A, having first joined the ABC as a cadet in the mid-2000s and worked in many roles in and around journalism and the media ever since. She is also a US politics junkie, situating her ideally to discuss the current dynamics in the campaign, but also larger questions about the health of US democracy (and how we measure it), and the role played by the media and the public in keeping democracies strong. In a conversation recorded on 1 August, the two also venture predictions for Harris’ Vice-Presidential pick, which will be made known within 24 hours of this episode being published! Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Careers in International Affairs Panel (AIIA, ACT Branch), 13 August 2024, 5:30pm at University of Canberra: https://aiiaact.glueup.com/event/careers-in-international-affairs-panel-113718/ Q+A (ABC TV show): https://www.abc.net.au/qanda  Claire Keegan, Small Things Like These (book): https://www.allenandunwin.com/browse/book/Claire-Keegan-Small-Things-Like-These-9780571368709 Boy Swallows Universe (TV series): https://www.netflix.com/au/title/81449940 YR (weather app): https://www.yr.no/en  

Just in case you needed one more 'emergency' politics podcast in the wake of the news that President Biden will not contest the US presidential election, and that it appears overwhelmingly likely that Vice President Harris will be nominated by the Democratic Party, Darren is joined by the ABC's Stephen Dziedzic to give their reactions, both personal and professional, on these remarkable events.  Is the US undergoing inexorable political decay, or can American democracy renew itself? Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Sinica (podcast), Adam Tooze on the U.S., China, the Energy Transition — and Saying the Unsayable, 4 July 2024: https://sinica.substack.com/p/adam-tooze-on-the-us-china-the-energy 

China’s Premier Li Qiang successfully visited Australia last month. The loan of two more pandas captured headlines, but if one looks closely at how the visit unfolded it’s clear Australia faces a very complex strategic landscape. The Albanese government clearly wants to maintain a stabilised relationship with China under the PM’s manta “cooperative where we can, disagree where we must, and engage in the national interest”.  But what are the benefits and costs of that strategy, and are the trade-offs worth it? Darren is joined once again by Dr Ben Herscovitch of the ANU for a conversation that lays out alternative framings for the choices the Australian government is, and is not, making in how it manages the China bilateral, and whether these choices are in the national interest. A little while ago the podcast crossed 500,000 lifetime downloads! Thanks to all of you for giving up your time to listen. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Noah Barkin LinkedIn post on German Economy Minister Habeck’s visit to China: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7210557349697122304/ “A Sustainable Economic Partnership for Partnership for Australia and China”, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU, May 2024: https://eaber.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/A-Sustainable-Economic-Partnership-for-Australia-and-China.pdf Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, “Statement regarding recent incidents in the South China Sea”, 18 June 2024: https://www.dfat.gov.au/news/media-release/statement-regarding-recent-incidents-south-china-sea Darren Lim and John Ikenberry, “China and the logic of illiberal hegemony”, Security Studies: (ungated) https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4244377  || (gated) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2178963 Jennifer Hewett, “The contradictions in Australia’s China policy”, Australian Financial Review, 12 June 2024: https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/the-contradictions-in-australia-s-china-policy-20240612-p5jl66 Deutschland 83 (TV series): https://tv.apple.com/au/show/deutschland-83/umc.cmc.4tlfhbbwsfeijwbe74so97qv6 Derisky Business (podcast): https://www.cnas.org/publications/podcast/everyone-loves-tariffs “Epistemic humility” mug on Etsy: https://www.etsy.com/au/listing/1751474343/epistemic-humility-ceramic-mug

Mike Pezzullo recently said that “the likelihood of conflict in this decade has been about 10 per cent, which is meaningful enough to plan for and indeed to be concerned about”. If Pezzullo’s assessment is correct, that means there is a 90 per cent chance that conflict will not happen. What is Australia’s plan for that (likely) scenario? This episode is about that 90% world, where Australia’s relationship with China will still matter greatly, as Beijing’s behaviour influences many of our interests, not just geopolitics and national security. How might Australia consider thinking about a cooperative agenda with the PRC? In the words of PM Albanese, his government’s approach is to “co-operate with China where we can, disagree where we must and engage in our national interest”. Where can we cooperate, especially given the deep freeze in political relations that the two countries are only now climbing out of? What does engagement in the national interest mean given the extent to which China can affect many things we care about? Darren is joined in this conversation by Dr Paul Hubbard. Paul is trained as an economist, first joining the Australian Public Service in 2006, and was sent from there to the ANU as a Sir Roland Wilson PhD Scholar in 2014.  More recently, in his capacity as a National Government Fellow at the ANU, Paul led a small team to produce a report - "A Sustainable Economic Partnership for Australia and China" that was launched in May. The report proposes an agenda for how Canberra and Beijing can take their economic relationship forward, and the two discuss that in the context of the broader question of what it means to develop a cooperative agenda with China and how should we think about the constraints imposed by geopolitics on that work? Note: the report reflects the views of the ANU research team, and Paul’s comments in this episode are in an unofficial capacity as an expert on the Chinese economy, and do not represent the views of the Australian Government or its agencies. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links “A Sustainable Economic Partnership for Partnership for Australia and China”, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU, May 2024: https://eaber.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/A-Sustainable-Economic-Partnership-for-Australia-and-China.pdf Partnership for Change: Australia–China Joint Economic Report, Report authored by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research and China Center for International Economic Exchanges, August 2016: https://press.anu.edu.au/publications/partnership-change#:~:text=The%2520Australia%E2%80%93China%2520Joint%2520Economic,in%2520both%2520Australia%2520and%2520China. 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper: https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/2017-foreign-policy-white-paper.pdf Paul Hubbard and Dhruv Sharma, “Understanding and applying long-term GDP projections”, EABER Working Paper Series, Paper No. 119, June 2016: https://eaber.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/EABER-Working-Paper-119-Hubbard-Sharma.pdf Paul Hubbard, A Wealth of Narrations: https://www.amazon.com.au/Wealth-Narrations-1-PC-Hubbard/dp/B0CR6TXX7C Chris Miller, Chip War: https://www.simonandschuster.com.au/books/Chip-War/Chris-Miller/9781398504127 The Ezra Klein Show, “Israelis Are Not Watching the Same War You Are:, Interview with Amit Segal, 14 June 2024: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/14/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-amit-segal.html

Jude Blanchette from CSIS discusses the 'stabilisation' of the PRC bilateral relationship with Australia. They analyze criticisms of the Albanese government's approach to China, comparing it to the Biden administration's 'competition' framework. The conversation delves into the goals of stabilisation and competition, highlighting the need for a clear end state in managing relations with China.

Two guests join Darren this week: Professor Joanne Wallis from the University of Adelaide and Professor Bec Strating from La Trobe University. They have recently published a book titled Girt by Sea: Reimagining Australia’s Security, published by Blank Inc. Their project is an ambitious one—to question the very foundations of what it means for Australia to be secure, and indeed who indeed it is that needs to be secure, and therefore how Australia should understand its strategic challenges and find lasting security. The importance of this book is demonstrated by fact that Foreign Minister Penny Wong launched it recently in Adelaide, where the Minister said that the questions the authors ask in the book are many of the questions she herself grapples with. This is not however a standard “let’s talk about my new book” episode, because when Darren read Girt by Sea he was struck how much the book’s arguments were consistent with what he understands to be “progressive” principles of foreign policy thought. While Bec and Joanne do not fully embrace the progressive label for their work, it is nevertheless an interesting and arguably useful lens to frame the conversation, including the authors’ ‘reimagining’ project. In contrast, Darren would not label himself as a progressive thinker and disagrees with the book’s starting premise that Australian security needs reimagining, perhaps revealing himself to be a cranky conservative! But, hopefully, disagreement makes for an engaging conversation. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Joanne Wallis (bio): https://researchers.adelaide.edu.au/profile/joanne.wallis Bec Strating (bio): https://scholars.latrobe.edu.au/bstrating Girt by Sea: Re-Imagining Australia's Security (Black Inc, 2024): https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/girt-sea-0 Bisley, N., Eckersley, R., Hameiri, S., Kirk, J., Lawson, G., & Zala, B. (2022). “For a progressive realism: Australian foreign policy in the 21st century”. Australian Journal of International Affairs, 76(2), 138–160. https://doi.org/10.1080/10357718.2022.2051428 Van Jackson, Grand Strategies of the Left: The Foreign Policy of Progressive Worldmaking (Cambridge University Press, 2023): https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/grand-strategies-of-the-left/966D16DBED1238269D1B4816F41AEF7D Statecraftiness: Mapping Competition, Cooperation, and Coercion in the Pacific Islands: https://www.adelaide.edu.au/stretton/our-research/security-in-the-pacific-islands/statecraftiness Asia Rising (podcast): https://www.latrobe.edu.au/asia/podcasts Taylor Swift, “Florida!!!” (feat. Florence + The Machine) (Official Lyric Video): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEssK8o3jKg

Recent events in economic security (or, geoeconomics) have been dizzying, but exciting for Darren given this is his primary academic field. In Australia, the new budget delivered by the government plans over $20b of industry policy funding for a “Future Made in Australia”. Meanwhile in the US, the Biden Administration has sharply increased tariffs on Chinese goods focused on green energy. The US wants to cultivate domestic manufacturing, in part because it sees PRC dominance of green technology as a national security risk. This means there is a lot to discuss! In this episode Darren talks with Hayley Channer. who is the Director of the Economic Security Program with the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. Hayley has a diverse background having worked as an Australian Government official, Ministerial adviser, think tank analyst, and represented global non-profit organisations. Prior to her current role, Hayley was a Senior Policy Fellow with the Perth USAsia Centre and, amongst other accolades, was awarded a Fulbright Scholarship in 2022. This lengthy discussion covers the goals of economic security policy and the inherent trade-offs in this domain, particularly in the context of both Australia’s and the US’ emerging industrial policy efforts, as well as the problem of responding to economic coercion. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Hayley Channer (bio): https://www.ussc.edu.au/hayley-channer Anthony Albanese, “A future made in Australia”, Speech, 11 April 2024: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/future-made-australia Jim Chalmers, “Economic security and the Australian opportunity in a world of churn and change”, Speech at Lowy Institute, 1 May 2024: https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/speeches/address-lowy-institute-sydney Hayley Channer and Georgia Edmonstone, “What does ‘economic security’ mean to Australia in 2024?”, US Studies Centre Brief, 30 January 2024: https://www.ussc.edu.au/what-does-economic-security-mean-to-australia-in-2024 Lim, D. (2019). Economic statecraft and the revenge of the state. East Asia Forum Quarterly, 11(4), 31–32: https://eastasiaforum.org/2019/12/04/economic-statecraft-and-the-revenge-of-the-state/ Ferguson, Victor A., Darren J. Lim, and Benjamin Herscovitch. “Between Market and State: The Evolution of Australia’s Economic Statecraft.” The Pacific Review 36, no. 5 (September 3, 2023): 1148–80. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2023.2200026 Victor A. Ferguson, Scott Waldron and Darren J. Lim (2022), “Market Adjustments to Import Sanctions: Lessons from Chinese Restrictions on Australian Trade, 2020-21”, Review of International Political Economy”, http://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2022.2090019 Darren J. Lim, Benjamin Herscovitch, and Victor A. Ferguson, “Australia’s Reassessment of Economic Interdependence with China”, in Strategic Asia (2023): https://www.nbr.org/publication/australias-reassessment-of-economic-interdependence-with-china/ Leading (podcast), “Speaking Truth to Trump | Former Head of Trump’s Communications, Anthony Scaramucci”, 21 February 2024: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=juvfEZsZqUY&list=PL_6zDbB-zRef_M7eXuSLUlGnt7qk66hJq&index=9 Abhijit V. Banerjee, Esther Duflo, Good economics for hard times: Better answers to our biggest problems (2019): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/51014619-good-economics-for-hard-times (Goodreads page) Dani Rodrik, “Don’t Fret About Green Subsidies”, Project Syndicate, 10 May 2024: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/green-subsidies-justified-on-economic-environmental-and-moral-grounds-by-dani-rodrik-2024-05