Australia in the World

Jude Blanchette from CSIS discusses the 'stabilisation' of the PRC bilateral relationship with Australia. They analyze criticisms of the Albanese government's approach to China, comparing it to the Biden administration's 'competition' framework. The conversation delves into the goals of stabilisation and competition, highlighting the need for a clear end state in managing relations with China.

Two guests join Darren this week: Professor Joanne Wallis from the University of Adelaide and Professor Bec Strating from La Trobe University. They have recently published a book titled Girt by Sea: Reimagining Australia’s Security, published by Blank Inc. Their project is an ambitious one—to question the very foundations of what it means for Australia to be secure, and indeed who indeed it is that needs to be secure, and therefore how Australia should understand its strategic challenges and find lasting security. The importance of this book is demonstrated by fact that Foreign Minister Penny Wong launched it recently in Adelaide, where the Minister said that the questions the authors ask in the book are many of the questions she herself grapples with. This is not however a standard “let’s talk about my new book” episode, because when Darren read Girt by Sea he was struck how much the book’s arguments were consistent with what he understands to be “progressive” principles of foreign policy thought. While Bec and Joanne do not fully embrace the progressive label for their work, it is nevertheless an interesting and arguably useful lens to frame the conversation, including the authors’ ‘reimagining’ project. In contrast, Darren would not label himself as a progressive thinker and disagrees with the book’s starting premise that Australian security needs reimagining, perhaps revealing himself to be a cranky conservative! But, hopefully, disagreement makes for an engaging conversation. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Joanne Wallis (bio): https://researchers.adelaide.edu.au/profile/joanne.wallis Bec Strating (bio): https://scholars.latrobe.edu.au/bstrating Girt by Sea: Re-Imagining Australia's Security (Black Inc, 2024): https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/girt-sea-0 Bisley, N., Eckersley, R., Hameiri, S., Kirk, J., Lawson, G., & Zala, B. (2022). “For a progressive realism: Australian foreign policy in the 21st century”. Australian Journal of International Affairs, 76(2), 138–160. https://doi.org/10.1080/10357718.2022.2051428 Van Jackson, Grand Strategies of the Left: The Foreign Policy of Progressive Worldmaking (Cambridge University Press, 2023): https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/grand-strategies-of-the-left/966D16DBED1238269D1B4816F41AEF7D Statecraftiness: Mapping Competition, Cooperation, and Coercion in the Pacific Islands: https://www.adelaide.edu.au/stretton/our-research/security-in-the-pacific-islands/statecraftiness Asia Rising (podcast): https://www.latrobe.edu.au/asia/podcasts Taylor Swift, “Florida!!!” (feat. Florence + The Machine) (Official Lyric Video): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEssK8o3jKg

Recent events in economic security (or, geoeconomics) have been dizzying, but exciting for Darren given this is his primary academic field. In Australia, the new budget delivered by the government plans over $20b of industry policy funding for a “Future Made in Australia”. Meanwhile in the US, the Biden Administration has sharply increased tariffs on Chinese goods focused on green energy. The US wants to cultivate domestic manufacturing, in part because it sees PRC dominance of green technology as a national security risk. This means there is a lot to discuss! In this episode Darren talks with Hayley Channer. who is the Director of the Economic Security Program with the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. Hayley has a diverse background having worked as an Australian Government official, Ministerial adviser, think tank analyst, and represented global non-profit organisations. Prior to her current role, Hayley was a Senior Policy Fellow with the Perth USAsia Centre and, amongst other accolades, was awarded a Fulbright Scholarship in 2022. This lengthy discussion covers the goals of economic security policy and the inherent trade-offs in this domain, particularly in the context of both Australia’s and the US’ emerging industrial policy efforts, as well as the problem of responding to economic coercion. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Hayley Channer (bio): https://www.ussc.edu.au/hayley-channer Anthony Albanese, “A future made in Australia”, Speech, 11 April 2024: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/future-made-australia Jim Chalmers, “Economic security and the Australian opportunity in a world of churn and change”, Speech at Lowy Institute, 1 May 2024: https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/speeches/address-lowy-institute-sydney Hayley Channer and Georgia Edmonstone, “What does ‘economic security’ mean to Australia in 2024?”, US Studies Centre Brief, 30 January 2024: https://www.ussc.edu.au/what-does-economic-security-mean-to-australia-in-2024 Lim, D. (2019). Economic statecraft and the revenge of the state. East Asia Forum Quarterly, 11(4), 31–32: https://eastasiaforum.org/2019/12/04/economic-statecraft-and-the-revenge-of-the-state/ Ferguson, Victor A., Darren J. Lim, and Benjamin Herscovitch. “Between Market and State: The Evolution of Australia’s Economic Statecraft.” The Pacific Review 36, no. 5 (September 3, 2023): 1148–80. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2023.2200026 Victor A. Ferguson, Scott Waldron and Darren J. Lim (2022), “Market Adjustments to Import Sanctions: Lessons from Chinese Restrictions on Australian Trade, 2020-21”, Review of International Political Economy”, http://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2022.2090019 Darren J. Lim, Benjamin Herscovitch, and Victor A. Ferguson, “Australia’s Reassessment of Economic Interdependence with China”, in Strategic Asia (2023): https://www.nbr.org/publication/australias-reassessment-of-economic-interdependence-with-china/ Leading (podcast), “Speaking Truth to Trump | Former Head of Trump’s Communications, Anthony Scaramucci”, 21 February 2024: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=juvfEZsZqUY&list=PL_6zDbB-zRef_M7eXuSLUlGnt7qk66hJq&index=9 Abhijit V. Banerjee, Esther Duflo, Good economics for hard times: Better answers to our biggest problems (2019): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/51014619-good-economics-for-hard-times (Goodreads page) Dani Rodrik, “Don’t Fret About Green Subsidies”, Project Syndicate, 10 May 2024: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/green-subsidies-justified-on-economic-environmental-and-moral-grounds-by-dani-rodrik-2024-05

Zack Cooper of the American Enterprise Institute joins Darren to discuss the troubling trend of PRC military actions that are endangering Australian personnel and equipment, and those of our partners. Last week, a Chinese fighter aircraft dropped flares into the path of an Australian helicopter that was conducting a patrol in international waters as part of sanctions-enforcement against North Korea. Australia lodged diplomatic protests and PM Albanese called the action ‘completely unacceptable’. Similar incidents have happened before. Last year Australian naval divers suffered minor injuries after a Chinese warship released sonar pulses, and there have been other aerial incidents as well. Why are Chinese forces doing this? Can Australia respond, either unilaterally or with partners? Is an increasingly risky maritime domain now simply part of the price of protecting our interests? Zack talks Darren through his perspective on these issues. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Andrew Greene, “Australian helicopter forced to take evasive action after Chinese fighter detonates flares”, ABC News, 6 May 2024: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-06/australian-helicopter-chines-fighter-flares-hmas-hobart/103812042 Euan Graham, “China’s latest unsafe interception at sea was no accident”, ASPI Strategist, 8 May 2024: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/chinas-latest-unsafe-interception-at-sea-was-no-accident/#:~:text=China%20habitually%20denies%20engaging%20in,endangered%20China's%20maritime%20air%20security Sam Roggeveen, “Helicopter flare up should highlight China’s base instincts”, Lowy Interpreter, 7 May 2024: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/helicopter-flare-should-highlight-china-s-base-instincts Corey Lee Bell and Elena Collinson, “The Yellow Sea flare incident: Expect more of the same”, ACRI Perspectives, 13 May 2024: https://www.australiachinarelations.org/content/perspectives-yellow-sea-flare-incident-expect-more-same Nicholas Eberstadt, “East Asia’s Coming Population Collapse: And How It Will Reshape World Politics”, Foreign Affairs (online), 8 May 2024: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/east-asias-coming-population-collapse Net Assessment (podcast): https://warontherocks.com/category/podcasts/net-assessment/

Stephen Dziedzic of the ABC once again joins Darren to discuss a busy month of news, starting with the recent election in Solomon Islands, then a bombshell Washington Post story about the alleged involvement of the Indian government in targeted killings (with a strong Australian angle); next the recent 2+2 bilateral with South Korea and the possibility of others joining onto AUKUS Pillar 2, and finishing with FM Penny Wong’s statement that statehood for Palestine is required to break the cycle of violence. This episode was recorded on Friday 3 May, exactly one year following the death of Allan Gyngell. He is dearly missed. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Stephen Dziedzic, Chrisnrita Aumanu-Leong, Evan Wasuka and Doug Dingwall, “Former diplomat Jeremiah Manele elected as new Solomon Islands prime minister”, ABC News, 2 May 2024: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-02/solomon-islands-new-prime-minister-election-jeremiah-manele/103791138 Greg Miller, Gerry Shih and Ellen Nakashima, “An assassination plot on American soil reveals a darker side of Modi’s India”, Washington Post, April 29, 2024: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/india-assassination-raw-sikhs-modi/ Penny Wong, “Speech to the ANU National Security College “Securing our Future”, 9 April 2024: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/speech-anu-national-security-college-securing-our-future Bettany Hughes, “The Seven Wonders of the Ancient World” (book): https://www.hachette.com.au/bettany-hughes/the-seven-wonders-of-the-ancient-world Serial, Season 4 (podcast): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/podcasts/serial-season-four-guantanamo.html   Ezra Klein Show (podcast), “Salman Rushdie is not who you think he is”, 26 April 2024: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/26/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-salman-rushdie.html

In the third episode of a mini-series on international order, Darren is joined by Amy King, an Associate Professor at the Australian National University, to discuss China. It is now cliché to say that China is having a major impact on the current order and its trajectory, but there is little agreement on what that impact is and how far it might go. Darren has taken a keen interest in this question in his academic research, co-authoring a paper titled “China and the logic of illiberal hegemony” with John Ikenberry that was published in 2023. The journal’s editors subsequently invited two scholars to write critiques, one of those being Amy King.   Darren opens by seeking Amy’s views on whether the “post-Cold War order” is a useful starting point to discuss China’s influence, and whether she agrees with US Secretary of State Blinken that that this particular order is at an end. They then turn to Darren’s paper, with Darren describing his model of “illiberal hegemony”, where China’s approach to order-building is partially extrapolated from its domestic models of political order and economic organisation. Amy has multiple disagreements both with the model and its implications, which makes for an engaging back-and-forth. This is another long and wonkish conversation, but returns continuously to practical questions, such what Australian diplomats might say when defending the (old) order to their colleagues across the region. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Amy King (bio): https://amykingonline.com/ Darren Lim and John Ikenberry, “China and the logic of illiberal hegemony”, Security Studies: (ungated) https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4244377  || (gated) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2178963 Amy King, “The Collective Logic of (Chinese) Hegemonic Order”, Security Studies: (ungated) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2253148 Matthew Stephen, “China and the Limits of Hypothetical Hegemony”, Security Studies: (ungated) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2259801 Darren Lim and John Ikenberry, “China and Hegemony: An Exchange – The Authors Reply”, Security Studies (gated, contact Darren for a copy): https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2252735 Richard Flanagan, “Question 7” (novel): https://www.penguin.com.au/books/question-7-9781761343452 Sam Sachdeva, “The China tightrope: Navigating New Zealand's relationship with a world superpower: https://www.allenandunwin.co.nz/browse/book/Sam-Sachdeva-China-Tightrope-9781991006172/

In the second episode in a mini-series on international order, Darren is joined by Dr. Jenny Gordon to discuss the international economic order. Over the past 40 years Australia has arguably been the single greatest beneficiary of the post-war economic order, at least among the group of industrialised countries. But from the GFC to Brexit to paralysis in the WTO to the rise of weaponised interdependence, geoeconomics and industrial policy, the rules and institutions of that old economic order – and the international trade and investment that flourished within it – are all under threat. Dr Jenny Gordon is an Honorary Professor at POLIS: The Centre for Social Policy Research at the Australian National University and a non-resident fellow at the Lowy Institute. Jenny had a long career in government, most recently as Chief Economist at DFAT from 2019 to 2021. Prior to that she spent 10 years at the Productivity Commission as the Principal Advisor Research, worked in the private sector, and began her professional career at the Reserve Bank of Australia. She holds a PhD in economics from Harvard University. The conversation begins with the question: what was the old economic order, when did it begin and what did it do? As an economist, Jenny says the end of the Cold War is not a key turning point for the post-war economic order, one must go back to the 1970s and forward to 2000s find these turning points. She describes why the order worked well and how Australia did so well within it. The discussion moves to the problems and tensions that emerged that have led us to the current moment, and the two debate – and disagree slightly – on the actual state of the current economic order. Finally, they look to the future, and discuss industrial policy, climate change, alternative models of economic growth and, of course, geopolitics, as well as what the rules and institutions of the future might need to do to protect the benefits of economic openness while managing contemporary policy challenges like climate change. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Jenny Gordon (bio): https://www.lowyinstitute.org/jenny-gordon The Seven Moons of Maali Almeida: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Seven_Moons_of_Maali_Almeida Peter Bellwood, The Five-Million-Year Odyssey: The Human Journey from Ape to Agriculture: https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691197579/the-five-million-year-odyssey 99 Percent Invisible (podcast): https://99percentinvisible.org/ Lupin (Netflix): https://www.netflix.com/au/title/80994082 Huberman Lab Podcast, “Dr. Becky Kennedy: Protocols for Excellent Parenting & Improving Relationships of All Kinds”, 26 February 2024: https://www.hubermanlab.com/episode/dr-becky-kennedy-protocols-for-excellent-parenting-improving-relationships-of-all-kinds

China's foreign minister, Wang Yi, visited Australia this week. The visit attracted a great deal of scrutiny, not just for the long list of issues in the bilateral relationship, but also Wang's meeting with former Prime Minister Paul Keating. Stephen Dziedzic of the ABC joins Darren to discuss the week's events. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Stephen Dziedzic, “Tibetan activists protest outside Chinese embassy against Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit”, ABC News, 20 March 2024: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-20/apn-protest-outside-chinese-embassy-as-wang-yi-visits/103611798 Daniel Flitton, “Don’t be timid about Trump, Australia, just roll with the punches, Lowy Interpreter, 21 March 2024: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/don-t-be-timid-about-trump-australia-just-roll-punches  

This episode is the first of a series of at least three that are linked by the theme of international order. Last year US Secretary of State Blinken said “what we’re experiencing now is more than a test of the post-Cold War order. It’s the end of it”. The concept of the possible ending of an order raises lots of questions: what exactly was the old order, why is it ending (if indeed it is), and what might come next? Why do these questions matter for Australia in the world? This series will try to tackle these questions from a few different angles. The first topic is war and international order. The two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has passed, and it is approaching six months since Hamas attacked Israel. These are conflicts with potentially major impacts on international order. They are also important for the leadership role the US might play in that order going forward. To discuss these conflicts through the lens of order Darren is joined by Andrew Phillips, an Associate Professor at the University of Queensland. Andrew’s research focuses on war, strategy, and international order, with a particular focus on Great Power rivalry and asymmetric violence as drivers of transformative change in world politics. Andrew and Darren recorded this episode earlier in March. They start with an assessment of where each of these conflicts is currently at, how they might end, and through what mechanisms they are affecting the broader international order, and the leadership role of the United States. It is one of the longest episodes in the history of the podcast, but the simple fact is that these types of conversations require such length to be done well. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Andrew Phillips (bio): https://polsis.uq.edu.au/profile/1348/andrew-phillips Darren Lim and G. John Ikenberry, “China and the Logic of Illiberal Hegemony”, Security Studies, 28 February 2023: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2178963 George Lawson and Ayşe Zarakol, “Recognizing injustice: the ‘hypocrisy charge’ and the future of the liberal international order”, International Affairs, Volume 99, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 201–217: https://academic.oup.com/ia/article/99/1/201/6967344 Dune (Part 2): https://www.imdb.com/title/tt15239678/ Ezra Klein Show (podcast), “Marilynne Robinson on Biblical Beauty, Human Evil and the Idea of Israel”, 5 March 2024: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/05/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-marilynne-robinson.html

A frenetic period of Australian diplomacy has wrapped up, after Australia hosted the ASEAN-Australia Special Summit in Melbourne, which commemorated 50 years of Dialogue Relations. The ABC’s Stephen Dziedzic followed events closely and joins Darren to talk through the week’s news. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Stephen Dziedzic, “Australia and South-East Asian nations endorse watered-down Melbourne Declaration to strengthen ties in the region”, ABC News, 6 March 2024: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-06/australia-south-east-asia-melbourne-declaration-asean-ties/103556630 Susannah Patton, X (Twitter) Thread with reflections on the ASEAN summit, 7 March 2024: https://twitter.com/SusannahCPatton/status/1765500247349039417 Greg Earl, “Economic diplomacy: Australia Inc’s new tilt at ASEAN”, Lowy Interpreter, 7 March 2024: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/economic-diplomacy-australia-inc-s-new-tilt-asean