Australia in the World

David Rennie, geopolitics editor at The Economist and former Beijing bureau chief, dives into the geopolitical loneliness facing Australia in a rapidly changing world. He discusses the assertive turn of China post-COVID-19 and the impact on Australia-China relations. Rennie explores the paradox of Trump’s China policy and its implications for U.S. politics. As Australia reassesses its foreign strategies, he emphasizes the need for a nuanced understanding of global power dynamics amid rising tensions.

The Trump administration has announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on China. Recorded only a handful of hours after the news broke, Darren offers a rapid reaction as a mini ‘lecture’ with his initial thoughts. (Apologies for the change in sound quality early on, which reflect the speed at which we were trying to get this out!) Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

We’re still only days into Donald Trump’s second term, but there is already a wealth of data to draw upon to update our models and expectations for how to think about his impact on the United States, US foreign policy, and the world. Joining Darren to talk through these early days is frequent guest Zack Cooper of the American Enterprise Institute.   Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Euan Graham, “The Quad foreign ministers joint statement: short and sweet”, ASPI Strategist, 22 Jan 2025: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-quad-foreign-ministers-joint-statement-short-and-sweet/ Yuval Levin, Trump Redux Begins, National Review, 21 Jan 2025: https://www.aei.org/op-eds/trump-redux-begins/ Ezra Klein Show, “MAGA’s big tech divide” (interview with James Pogue), 28 Jan 2025: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/28/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-james-pogue.html James Pogue, “Steve Bannon Has Called His “Army” to Do Battle—No Matter Who Wins in November”, Vanity Fair, 9 Oct 2024: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/steve-bannon-nato-world-order James Pogue, “How Long Can the Alliance Between Tech Titans and the MAGA Faithful Last?”, New York Times, 18 Jan 2025: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/18/opinion/donald-trump-tech-musk-bannon.html?unlocked_article_code=1.rE4.j9zE.VS5n0pOxgHg_&smid=url-share

On the eve of Donald Trump’s second inauguration, one of the podcast’s editors, Corbin Duncan, interviews Darren in a “ask me anything” format, asking both his own questions and those submitted by friends of the podcast. How did Darren come to studying economic security and is there a framework for practising it? Are we returning to a world of spheres of influence? Is foreign interference being normalised? How is the ‘pivot to Asia’ going? Have we reached peak democracy? Who will be the geopolitical winners of decarbonisation? Can academics influence foreign policy and are they self-censoring? It is a very wide-ranging conversation! Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research, interviewing and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Eliot Chen, “Does Washington Have China Groupthink?”, The Wire China, 5 January 2025: https://www.thewirechina.com/2025/01/05/does-washington-have-china-groupthink/ Arthur C. Brooks (personal website): https://arthurbrooks.com/ Rob Henderson, Troubled: A Memoir of Foster Care, Family, and Social Class (Gallery Books, 2024): https://www.amazon.com.au/Troubled-Memoir-Foster-Family-Social/dp/1982168536 The Day of the Jackal (TV Series): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Day_of_the_Jackal_(TV_series)

In the past few months Darren has been teaching his elective undergraduate course, Power and Influence in World Politics (POLS2136) at ANU. This year, he has grappled with the impact of Donald Trump’s re-election, and what it signifies for how power will be accumulated and wielded in the future. Remember, Trump’s core critique of the Biden Administration was weakness – so presumably Trump plans to show us strength. Does that mean America can be more ‘powerful’, or will the result actually be the opposite? And Australia’s deals with PNG and Nauru this month illustrate how far Australia has come in exercising power and influence in recent years. Hervé Lemahieu and Susannah Patton of the Lowy Institute in Sydney join Darren for a conversation about power.  Hervé is Lowy’s Director of Research and Susannah the Director of the Southeast Asia Program and Project Lead for Lowy’s Asia Power Index, which Hervé first developed in 2018. Who better to have a conversation with about power, what it is, how we measure it, and how the forces that have given us Trump, or perhaps Trump himself, might require is to reassess how we conceive of power in world politics into the future. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Hervé Lemahieu (bio): https://www.lowyinstitute.org/herve-lemahieu Susannah Patton (bio): https://www.lowyinstitute.org/susannah-patton Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, 2024 Edition: https://power.lowyinstitute.org/ Susannah Patton and Hervé Lemahieu, “Asia has no hegemon: But U.S.-Chinese Bipolarity Is Good for America and the Region”, Foreign Affairs, 13 September: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/asia-has-no-hegemon-us-chinese-bipolarity-good-america-region Mitch McConnell, “The Price of American Retreat: Why Washington Must Reject Isolationism and Embrace Primacy”, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb 2025: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/price-american-retreat-trump-mitch-mcconnell Join or die (Netflix documentary): https://www.netflix.com/au/title/81746809 Wicked (2024 Film): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wicked_(2024_film) 

Stephen Dziedzic of the ABC reported this past week on two significant deals the Australian government struck with the governments of Nauru and Papua New Guinea. He joins Darren to talk through how geopolitics, development, banking and finance and, yes, now the sport of rugby league, are all mixing together as Canberra sails into relatively uncharted waters in its foreign policy. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Stephen Dziedzic, “Australia inks treaty with Nauru locking out growing Chinese influence”, ABC News, 9 December: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-09/australia-nauru-treaty-locks-out-china/104702002 Stephen Dziedzic, “Australia, PNG unveil deal for Papua New Guinea team to enter NRL in 2028”, ABC News, 12 December: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-12/png-australia-unveil-new-nrl-team/104716250 Stephen Dziedzic, “Friends and partners weigh up Canberra's 'relentless' Pacific push”, ABC News, 14 December: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-14/canberras-relentless-pacific-push/104723598 Pat Conroy, TV Interview, Sarah Ferguson, ABC 7.30 (transcript), 12 December: https://ministers.dfat.gov.au/minister/pat-conroy/transcript/tv-interview-sarah-ferguson-abc-730 APRA Chair John Lonsdale’s speech to the European Australian Business Council, 25 November 2024: https://www.apra.gov.au/news-and-publications/apra-chair-john-lonsdale%E2%80%99s-speech-to-european-australian-business-council Stephen Dziedzic, “Treasurer says government in 'final stages of negotiations' with ANZ to maintain bank's Pacific presence”, ABC News, 11 November: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-11/government-striking-deal-to-maintain-anz-bank-pacific-presence/104587514

As the world begins to think through the implications of a second Trump presidential term, Darren is joined once again by Zack Cooper of the American Enterprise Institute to talk through what we do know, and what we don’t, about the coming storm. What was Trump’s basic critique of the Biden administration's foreign policy? What are the competing camps on foreign policy inside Trumpworld? And what should Australia do, about AUKUS, the Quad, and the alliance generally? Does Kevin Rudd’s position remain tenable? There’s a lot to discuss, albeit with the caveat that we do not know much for certain at this point! Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Zack Cooper (bio): https://www.aei.org/profile/zack-cooper/ Zack Cooper, Tides of Fortune: The Rise and Decline of Great Militaries (2025, Yale University Press): https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300268676/tides-of-fortune/ Net Assessment (podcast): https://warontherocks.com/category/podcasts/net-assessment/ Tanner Greer, “The Battle to Shape Trump’s China policy”, Foreign Policy Research Institute, 29 October 2024: https://www.fpri.org/article/2024/10/the-battle-to-shape-trumps-china-policy/ Ezra Klein Show (podcast), Vivek Ramaswamy Has a Different Vision for Trumpism From JD Vance, 29 October 2024: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/29/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-vivek-ramaswamy.html

The shock may not be quite as sharp as 2016, but the consequences could well be even more dire. Eliza Harvey of the ABC returns to join Darren in talking through thoughts, and feelings, in reaction to Donald Trump's stunning election victory.  Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

In an era where “economic security is national security”, arguably the most important perspective in how governments ought to intervene in the economy--in ways to maximise benefits and minimise costs--is that of the private sector. With that in mind, Darren welcomes Dr Huw McKay to the podcast to hear a business perspective on the economic security agenda and geoeconomics. Huw has just returned to Australia after living in Singapore for many years where he worked as Chief Economist at BHP. Prior to that he was an Executive Director at Westpac Bank and also spent time at the Commonwealth Treasury on secondment during the financial crisis. He holds a PhD in economics and economic history from ANU and his book, The Strategic Logic of China’s Economy, was published this year. The agenda for this conversation will be familiar to those thinking about economic security – how do we define it, is it simply all about China, what principles should guide industrial policy, how do we manage the weaponisation of supply chains and chokepoints, how can we counter economic coercion, and how can the rules-based order be preserved? As the Australian government builds out its “Future Made in Australia” agenda, this is exactly the type of conversation that is needed to inform the debate. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Huw McKay (LinkedIn): https://au.linkedin.com/in/huw-mckay-6ab582ab Huw McKay, The Strategic Logic of China’s Economy (2024): https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-47229-9 Hugh White, The China Choice: Why America Should Share Power (2012): https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/china-choice Graeme Snooks, The dynamic society: Explaining the sources of global change (1996) (Goodreads): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1263694.The_Dynamic_Society The rest is history (podcast): https://www.goalhangerpodcasts.com/the-rest-is-history Huberman Lab (podcast): Esther Perel: How to Find, Build & Maintain Healthy Romantic Relationships: https://www.hubermanlab.com/episode/esther-perel-how-to-find-build-maintain-healthy-romantic-relationships

India has only been on the periphery of Darren’s professional vision since the dramatic headlines last year surrounding the killing of a Sikh activist in Canada and an indictment alleging a similar assassination attempt in the US. But 2024 has been a big year for India with its national election and PM Modi winning a 3rd term, but with a far smaller margin of victory than most expected. And with the Quad meeting recently being held in Joe Biden’s home state of Delaware, now is a good time to catch up on the world’s most populous country. To do that Darren invited back Ian Hall. Ian is a Professor of international relations at Griffith University and an Academic Fellow at the Australia India Institute. Darren asks what the election and post-election tell us about the trajectory of India’s democracy. They discuss whether India ought to be modelled as a ‘normal’ rising power and the nature (and limit) of China as the core organising principle of Western cooperation with India, with a focus on the Quad. Finally, they discuss the Indian diaspora in Australia. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Ian Hall (biography): https://experts.griffith.edu.au/18600-ian-hall Ian Hall, Modi and the Reinvention of Indian Foreign Policy (Bristol U Press, 2021): https://bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/modi-and-the-reinvention-of-indian-foreign-policy Grand Tamasha (podcast): https://carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/interpreting-india Global India (podcast): https://www.brookings.edu/tags/global-india-podcast/ Vijay Gokhale, The Long Game: How the Chinese Negotiate with India (Penguin India, 2021): https://www.penguin.co.in/book/the-long-game/ Steve Randy Waldman, “Abundance is overcapacity”, Interfluidity Drafts (blog), 17 Sep 2024: https://drafts.interfluidity.com/2024/09/17/abundance-is-overcapacity/index.html