Australia in the World

Darren welcomes Dr John Kunkel for the first time to the podcast. John is Senior Economics Adviser at the United States Studies Centre. He has worked as an economist, speech writer, policy analyst, adviser to government and industry executive. John is most well-known for being Chief of Staff to Prime Minister Scott Morrison from August 2018 to May 2022. From 2004 to 2007, he was also speech writer to Prime Minister John Howard.  John has the ideal background to discuss the current geopolitical and geoeconomic moment Australia faces. He holds a PhD in economics from ANU and understands why markets and openness have been essential to Australia’s success. But as a PM’s Chief of Staff, including during the COVID outbreak, John is well aware of the complexity of Australia’s national interests, the difficult of making policy, and the challenges posed by China and, lately, Donald Trump’s America. The conversation starts with President Trump and the United States, moves to China, and finishes at home on how Australia needs new thinking, and new policy processes, to navigate this moment in history. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links John Kunkel (bio): https://www.ussc.edu.au/john-kunkel Adam Posen, “Trade wars are easy to lose”, Foreign Affairs, 9 April 2025: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/tariffs-trade-wars-are-easy-lose Yuval Levin Wikipedia page (author of “The Great Debate”, “The Fractured Republic” and “A Time to Build”): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuval_Levin Thomas Sowell, A Conflict of Visions (1987): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Conflict_of_Visions James Q Wilson, The Moral Sense (1993): https://www.simonandschuster.com.au/books/The-Moral-Sense/James-Q-Wilson/9780684833323 China Talk (podcast), “Ezra, Derek and Dan Wang”, 9 May 2025: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/abundance-and-antagonism

Australia’s federal election delivered a clear and in many ways stunning victory for the incumbent centre-left Labor government led by PM Anthony Albanese. Coming a week after an even more astonishing victory by the centre-left Liberal Party in Canada, Darren is intensely focused on the extent to which President Trump, and Trumpism, played a meaningful role in Labor’s victory, and what this devastation means for the future of conservative politics in Australia. Darren is joined again by good friend and journalist Eliza Harvey, who is Executive Producer of the ABC’s Q&A program, to talk things through. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Daniel Jeffrey, “Gina Rinehart calls for Liberal Party to embrace Trumpist policies, laments election result”, Nine News, 5 May 2025: https://www.9news.com.au/national/federal-election-2025-gina-rinehart-statement/573c7c24-c4a0-4be4-8d99-6c25ffc4b8dc “Outgoing MP Keith Wolahan outlines Liberal Party's urban challenge” (Video), Insiders (ABC News), 4 May 2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kUS3m_j4_w Sinners (film): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinners_(2025_film) Say nothing (TV series): https://www.disneyplus.com/en-au/browse/entity-ada252dd-714c-4c2c-b15c-f1ed93cdf5b0 Geraldine Brooks, Memorial Days: https://www.hachette.com.au/geraldine-brooks/memorial-days

With four episodes on tariffs this month, the podcast has already broken its monthly episode record. Nevertheless, news is also happening elsewhere, and for the past few months a number of interesting stories emerged in Southeast Asia. Then, given that Southeast Asian economies are some of the most directly affected by Trump’s tariff policies, the need for a conversation centred on Southeast Asia only increased, starting with how the US is perceived and the assessments being made regarding the region’s strategic trajectory. To discuss all this and more, Aaron Connolly returns to the podcast. Aaron is Asia Diplomatic Editor and Singapore Bureau Chief at The Economist, having joined the newspaper from the International Institute of Strategic Studies where he was working the last time he appeared on the podcast. Aaron offers both a big picture strategic landscape of the region, and broad and deep knowledge of details, both political and economic. In addition to Trump and tariffs, Darren and Aaron discuss Indonesia’s recent military reforms and other policies of the Prabowo administration, Thailand’s deportation of Uighurs to China, and the arrest of former Philippines president Duterte. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Aaron Connelly (bio): https://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/aaron-connelly/ The Economist, “Prabowo Subianto takes a chainsaw to Indonesia’s budget”, 27 February 2025: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/02/27/prabowo-subianto-takes-a-chainsaw-to-indonesias-budget Scam Inc (podcast), The Economist: https://www.economist.com/audio/podcasts/scam-inc Money Talks (podcast), The Economist: https://www.economist.com/audio/podcasts/money-talks Odd Lots (podcast), “What a us stove maker thinks about tariffs” 14 April 2025: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2025-04-14/odd-lots-what-a-us-stove-maker-thinks-about-tariffs-podcast

The Trump administration has announced exemptions to the massive reciprocal tariffs on China for smartphones, computers and other electronics. In his latest rapid reaction podcast, Darren assesses the exemptions and comments on the the larger tariff picture, barely 10 days after "Liberation Day".  Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Tanner Greer, "Obscurity by design: Competing priorities for America's China Policy", Foreign Policy Research Institute, March 2025: https://www.fpri.org/article/2025/03/obscurity-by-design/ Adam Tooze, Chartbook 374: As Trump triggers "sell America", will the result be "stage 4", the politicization of financial markets?, 12 April 2025: https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-374-as-trump-triggers-sell 

President Trump has paused the so-called 'reciprocal' element of his tariffs for everyone but China, meaning a baseline rate of 10% is in place, while PRC imports face tariffs of over 100%. In this episode, Darren offers some initial reactions to this breaking news. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Jay Cost (tweet): https://x.com/Jay__Cost/status/1910099320768209058 Mr Beast (tweet): https://x.com/MrBeast/status/1909621956258775458 Brad Setser (tweet): https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1909309353393635551  Jesse Singal (tweet): https://x.com/jessesingal/status/1910039965536559350?s=46  James Palmer (BlueSky): https://bsky.app/profile/beijingpalmer.bsky.social/post/3lme7pnzzw22v Stephen Walt (BlueSky): https://bsky.app/profile/stephenwalt.bsky.social/post/3lmga2xyhuk2d    

Last episode having offered his rapid reactions in the hours after President Trump’s tariff announcement, on Friday 4 April Darren was joined by Dr. Huw Mackay to talk through the economics and financial market angles, a full day after the tariff announcement. How did markets react and what might that tell us about the days and weeks ahead? How will companies be thinking about these events, and what advice would Huw offer to governments around the world on how they ought to manage this policy challenge? Huw, a former Chief Economist at BHP, offers a vital perspective from the private sector on big questions not just of economics but of geopolitics and foreign policy. Fair warning: the first part of the discussion is extremely wonky, but nevertheless essential, because understanding the potential macroeconomic impacts of these tariffs is a precondition for analysing their impact on geopolitics and the international economic order. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Huw McKay (LinkedIn): https://au.linkedin.com/in/huw-mckay-6ab582ab Huw McKay, “How the West can shore up its strategic metals supply chain”, Lowy Interpreter, 28 Feb 2025: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/how-west-can-shore-its-strategic-metals-supply-chain William Dalrymple, The Golden Road (2024): https://williamdalrymple.com/books/the-golden-road Jordan Schneider, China Talk (podcast): https://www.chinatalk.media/p/podcast-corruption-spies-tiananmen

President Trump's "Liberation Day" has come and gone, and hours after the momentous announcement of tariffs being imposed on basically the entire world, Darren shares his initial reactions. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Oren Cass, "The One Word that Explains Globalization's Failure, and Trump's Response", Understanind America, 25 February 2025: https://www.understandingamerica.co/p/the-one-word-that-explains-globalizations 

It’s time to return to the news, and Stephen Dziedzic of the ABC returns to discuss three big stories that he’s been reporting on in recent weeks. First, what is the impact of Donald Trump on the foreign policy community in Australia? How is the government managing the tariffs and numerous other controversies, and will this become an election issue? Is there ballast developing around a “plan B”? Second, a group of People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) warships circumnavigated Australia in February, causing quite a stir. And third, New Zealand and Cook Islands have been a tense relationship in recent months with the latter’s relationship with Beijing central to the dispute. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Stephen Dziedzic, “What the Trump and Zelenskyy fallout means for Australian foreign policy”, ABC, 4 March 2025: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-04/trump-zelenskyy-fallout-repercussions-australian-foreign-policy/105004636 Stephen Dziedzic, “Tariffs could be turning point in Albanese's 'no comment' strategy on Trump”, ABC, 12 March 2025: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-12/tariffs-turning-point-albanese-response-trump/105043594 Andrew Greene and Stephen Dziedzic, “Intelligence chief says Chinese warship deployment designed to be 'provocative'”, ABC, 26 February 2025: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-26/chinese-warship-deployment-designed-to-be-provocative/104982224 Jennifer Parker, “China’s expedition shows Australia must become a naval power”, Australian Financial Review, 23 February 2025: https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/china-s-expedition-shows-australia-must-become-a-naval-power-20250222-p5le9k Lim, D. J., & Colnaghi, W. B. (2024). "Strategically (in)secure and economically (in)vulnerable: Australia, New Zealand, and their relations with China". Australian Journal of International Affairs, 78(5), 600–613. https://doi.org/10.1080/10357718.2024.2406279 Stephen Dziedzic, and Kyle Evans “How passports and a deal with China have put New Zealand at odds with its former colony Cook Islands”, ABC, 8 February 2025: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-08/cook-islands-new-zealand-relations-china-passports/104909718 The Last Dance (Netflix): https://www.netflix.com/au/title/80203144 Lady Gaga, Mayhem (album): https://open.spotify.com/album/2MHUaRi9OCyTN02SoyRRBJ

While the calling of a federal election has been delayed by Tropical Cyclone Alfred, it must still happen in May, and so this episode the podcast offers its third “incoming government brief”: a document presented to the new (or returning) minister for each department, for the purpose of providing a descriptive overview of what the department does, and highlighting the most important issues facing that particular portfolio. The Australia in the World Incoming Government Brief has four chapters:(1) A changed external environment, (2) Plausible futures and policy dilemmas, (3) Key commitments by political party, and (4) Miscellaneous. Above all, the central challenge for this document at this moment is simply how to describe the world Australia now finds itself in, and to frame the challenges the government will face, regardless of its partisan perspective. No wonder this is probably the longest episode in the podcast's history! Darren is joined by Richard Maude, who has appeared multiple times before, most recently in February 2024. Richard had a long career in government including serving as Director-General of the (then) Office of National Assessments, and Deputy Secretary in DFAT where, amongst other roles, he headed the whole-of-government taskforce supporting the preparation of the 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper. He was the inaugural Executive Director, Policy, the Asia Society Australia and is now a distinguished policy fellow at there. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Richard Maude (bio): https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/richard-maude Incoming government brief for Senator the Hon Penny Wong, Minister for Foreign Affairs, May 2022: https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/dfat-foi-lex5624.pdf Penny Wong, “National Press Club Address, Australian interests in a regional balance of power”, 17 April 2023: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/national-press-club-address-australian-interests-regional-balance-power Richard Maude, “Australia’s Indo-Pacific destiny up for grabs in a new world order”, Australian Financial Review, 11 March 2025: https://www.afr.com/world/asia/australia-s-indo-pacific-destiny-up-for-grabs-in-a-new-world-order-20250304-p5lgru Anna Del Conte, Gastronomy of Italy [Revised Edition], 2013: https://www.harpercollins.com.au/9781862059580/gastronomy-of-italy-revised-edition/ Stanley Tucci: Searching for Italy (tv series): https://www.sbs.com.au/ondemand/tv-series/stanley-tucci-searching-for-italy Black Doves (tv series): https://www.netflix.com/au/title/81682935

One of the major casualties of Trump administration’s brazen efforts to reduce the size of the US federal government is its dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), including a wholesale funding freeze, shutting down the website, and recalling most staff from abroad. The impacts on the world are going to be severe and lasting, but there are many questions and uncertainties: what will be the short-term harm, how will the development sector survive in the medium term, and what will US development policy, and indeed development policy generally, look like over the longer term? To discuss these issues Darren is once again joined by Bridi Rice, CEO of the Development Intelligence Lab in Canberra to talk through possible futures, what a “MAGA-friendly” development policy might look like, and whether development is simply the latest policy domain to see a convergence between the Trump worldview and that of China. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Bridi Rice (bio): https://www.devintelligencelab.com/team/bridi-rice Hilltop Hoods (Spotify page): https://open.spotify.com/artist/7dlqUnjoF2U2DkNDMhcgG4 Security Economics (podcast): https://open.spotify.com/show/1jdlbmzM5do3ijANi6NH0w (Spotify)