Australia in the World

In Darren’s own research, topics like tariffs, industrial policy and the decaying rules-based economic order are a daily focus. On these issues and many more relating to the global economy, financial markets, economic security, and US-China geoeconomic rivalry, there is no-one whose expertise and judgment Darren respects more than that of Brad Setser, today’s guest. In a conversation recorded on 1 September, three big themes are canvassed: (i) tariffs, (ii) China, and (iii) Australia’s position in a fraying economic order. As the hosts of the “Odd Lots” podcast would say, Brad is the ‘perfect’ guest, and Darren could not be more thrilled. What is motivating Trump, and what could constrain him? Which country has negotiated the best deal? Is China’s export-driven economic model locked in? Could other countries rein in Beijing’s overcapacity? Is the rules-based economic order finished? Brad Setser is the Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. His expertise includes global trade and capital flows, financial vulnerability analysis, and sovereign debt restructuring. Bred served as a senior advisor to the United States Trade Representative from 2021 to 2022 and as the deputy assistant secretary for international economic analysis in the U.S. Treasury from 2011 to 2015. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Brad Setser (bio): https://www.cfr.org/expert/brad-w-setser Odd Lots (podcast), "Liz Truss on the 'Doom Loop' Engulfing the UK Economy", 29 August 2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yyQOEJ38kW8 Jonathon Sine, “Litigation Nation, Engineering Empire: A review of Dan Wang's new book Breakneck”, Cogitations (substack), 28 August 2025: https://www.cogitations.co/p/litigation-nation-engineering-empire Bob Davis and Lingling Wei, Superpower Showdown: How the Battle between Trump and Xi Threatens a New Cold War (Harper Collins, 2020): https://www.harpercollins.com.au/9780062953070/superpower-showdown/ Mark Kurlansky, Salt: A world history (Penguin, 2003): https://www.harpercollins.com.au/9780062953070/superpower-showdown/

Darren welcomes Richard McGregor, Senior Fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute and author of influential books "The Party" and "Xi Jinping: The Backlash," to discuss China's evolving political landscape and global position in 2025. The discussion begins with examining how Xi Jinping has consolidated power beyond what seemed possible 15 years ago, eliminating term limits and establishing one-man rule despite China's complexity. Richard describes the muted but persistent internal resistance to Xi's leadership, including purged officials and liberal critics waiting in the wings, while noting how US-China tensions help Xi maintain domestic support. The conversation moves to China's economic challenges, from the property crisis to overcapacity, and how the centralisation of power has shifted local government financing. McGregor discusses the sustainability of Xi's nationalist governance model and China's strengths in technological innovation despite structural problems. On foreign policy, they analyse Trump's return and its implications for China, Southeast Asia's complex relationship with both superpowers, and the critical Taiwan issue. The episode concludes with an assessment of Australia-China relations under the Albanese government's "stabilisation" approach, examining domestic political factors and emerging challenges around Chinese technology integration in Australia's economy. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Richard McGregor (bio): https://www.lowyinstitute.org/people/experts/bio/richard-mcgregor Richard McGregor, The Party: The Secret World of China's Communist Rulers, (Penguin, 2012, Revised Edition): https://www.penguin.com.au/books/the-party-9780141975559 Richard McGregor, Xi Jinping: The Backlash, (Penguin, 2019): https://www.penguin.com.au/books/xi-jinping-a-lowy-institute-paper-penguin-special-9781760893040 Kevin Rudd, The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping’s China (Hachette, 2022): https://www.hachette.com.au/kevin-rudd/the-avoidable-war-the-dangers-of-a-catastrophic-conflict-between-the-us-and-xi-jinpings-china Desmond Shum, Red Roulette: An Insider's Story of Wealth, Power, Corruption and Vengeance in Today's China (Simon & Schuster, 2022): https://www.simonandschuster.com.au/books/Red-Roulette/Desmond-Shum/9781398510388 Chun Han Wong, “Party of One: The Rise of Xi Jinping and China's Superpower Future (Avid Reader Press/Simon & Schuster, 2024): https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Party-of-One/Chun-Han-Wong/9781982185749 Patrick McGee, Apple in China: The Capture of the World's Greatest Company (Simon & Schuster, 2025): https://www.simonandschuster.com.au/books/Apple-in-China/Patrick-McGee/9781398534377

It’s time for another tariff episode, and Darren is joined by returning guest Corbin Duncan, a journalist with The Economist (and valued Australia in the world team member) to talk through an avalanche of tariff news. Apologies for the poor quality of audio from Darren’s end. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research, co-hosting and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Security Economics (podcast), “Trump's new global tariff regime is here!”, 7 August 2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-St1M0DRcU Darren Lim and John Ikenberry, “China and the logic of illiberal hegemony”, Security Studies: (ungated) https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4244377  || (gated) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2178963 Triple J, Hottest 100 of Australian Songs: https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/countdown/hottest100/1-100 Sam Tanenhaus, Buckley: The Life and the Revolution That Changed America, Penguin Random House: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/176399/buckley-by-sam-tanenhaus/ Jospeh Torigian, The Party's Interests Come First:The Life of Xi Zhongxun, Father of Xi Jinping, Standford University Press, https://www.sup.org/books/history/partys-interests-come-first

The PM made a big trip to China, and the ABC’s Stephen Dziedzic accompanied him as part of the press contingent. Darren and Stephen discuss both Beijing’s and Canberra’s interests in the visit, the careful diplomacy of the week, an apparent effort from the Trump administration to use the Taiwan issue to derail the visit, and whether Australia really is in a “post stabilisation” phase in its bilateral relationship with China. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Stephen Dziedzic, “Albanese bats away questions about Taiwan and US defence demands on first day of China visit”, ABC News, 13 July 2025: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-13/albanese-taiwan-us-defence-demands-china-visit/105526626 Stephen Dziedzic, “China's Premier Li Qiang calls for more economic ties with Australia in meeting with Anthony Albanese”, ABC News, 16 July 2025: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-16/anthony-albanese-meets-li-qiang-business-leaders-in-china/105536072 “What does the PM's trip to China mean for Taiwan? | Insiders On Background” ABC News, 19 July 2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rP5Y0nKmxt0 PM Albanese, John Curtin Oration, 5 July 2025: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/john-curtin-oration Dwarkesh Patel, “China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber’ (podcast), 20 June 2025: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/arthur-kroeber The rest is history (podcast): https://open.spotify.com/show/7Cvsbcjhtur7nplC148TWy (Spotify) | https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-rest-is-history/id1537788786 (Apple)

Operation Rising Lion, Israel’s attack on Iran that began over the weekend, could be the beginning of something very big, and very bad. Or it could lead to the downfall of a regime who few would mourn, not to mention a reduced risk of nuclear proliferation. It’s too early to say, but in the spirit of exploring the dynamics of the issue Darren is joined again by Stephen Dziedzic of the ABC to talk through the last few days and what they might mean. Along the way, Stephen explains the possible implications of President Trump cancelling his meeting with PM Albanese at the G7 to return to Washington. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links “Wong outlines 'very perilous situation' in Middle East | Insiders | ABC News” (video), 15 June 2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8vumMIJO7LQ

The annual Shangri-La Dialogue took place in Singapore from 30 May to 1 June. Zack Cooper of the American Enterprise Institute attended and returns to the podcast to talk through his impressions with Darren. What did we learn about the Trump administration’s strategy in Asia? Should the region fear abandonment or entrapment more? And what should we make of Secretary of Defense Hegseth’s call for Australia to spend 3.5% of GDP on defence? Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Remarks by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth at the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore (As Delivered), 31 May 2025: https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/4202494/remarks-by-secretary-of-defense-pete-hegseth-at-the-2025-shangri-la-dialogue-in/ Huw McKay, “Trump and the art of the (bad faith) deal”, “Lowy Interpreter, 2 June 2025. Stacie E. Goddard, “The Rise and Fall of Great-Power Competition: Trump’s New Spheres of Influence”, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2025: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/rise-and-fall-great-power-competition# Net Assessment (podcast), “Great Power Competition or Collusion?”, 29 May 2025: https://www.stimson.org/2025/great-power-competition-or-collusion/

With Prime Minister Albanese’s government returned to office with a large majority, Darren is wondering what the data from the PM and Foreign Minister’s first overseas trips tell us about the early trajectory of Australian foreign policy in this new term. Is it one of continuity or change? Stephen Dziedzic of the ABC, who accompanied the PM on his trip to Jakarta, the Vatican, and Singapore, joins to discuss that trip and FM Penny Wong’s trip to three Pacific Island nations. Finally, the PM was critical of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) this week, and in light of that story Darren ventures a model of think thank influence, much to Stephen’s delight! Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Stephen Dziedzic, “Albanese calls for deeper economic ties with Indonesia on first visit since re-election”, ABC News, 15 May 2025: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-15/anthony-albanese-first-overseas-trip-to-indonesia/105298630 Greg Earl, “Australia-Indonesia relations: From Keating’s bold vision to Albanese’s careful pragmatism”, Lowy Interpreter, 22 May 2025: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/australia-indonesia-relations-keating-s-bold-vision-albanese-s-careful-pragmatism Stephen Dziedzic, “Anthony Albanese tells Volodymyr Zelenskyy Australia doing 'whatever we can' to pressure Russia”, ABC News, 19 May 2025: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-19/albanese-meets-zelenskyy-and-the-pope-in-rome/105308062 Stephen Dziedzic, “Pacific Island nations support China's Taiwan claims at high-profile foreign ministers' meeting”, ABC News, 29 May 2025: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-29/china-wang-yi-pacific-islands-meeting-climate-taiwan/105353012 Andrew Greene, “Anthony Albanese tells think tank to 'have a look at themselves' after defence report”, ABC News, 29 May 2025: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-29/albanese-lashes-aspi-defence-spending-report/105351518 Christoper Clary, “Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025”, Stimson Center. Working Paper, 28 May 2025: https://www.stimson.org/2025/four-days-in-may-the-india-pakistan-crisis-of-2025/ Grand Tamasha (podcast), “How this India-Pakistan conflict will shape the next one”, 20 May 2025: https://carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/grand-tamasha/how-this-india-pakistan-conflict-will-shape-the-next-one?lang=en Interesting Times with Ross Douthat (podcast), “Progressives Are Driving Themselves Into Extinction” 29 May 2025: (Youtube link) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BBapHuklN8

Darren welcomes Dr John Kunkel for the first time to the podcast. John is Senior Economics Adviser at the United States Studies Centre. He has worked as an economist, speech writer, policy analyst, adviser to government and industry executive. John is most well-known for being Chief of Staff to Prime Minister Scott Morrison from August 2018 to May 2022. From 2004 to 2007, he was also speech writer to Prime Minister John Howard.  John has the ideal background to discuss the current geopolitical and geoeconomic moment Australia faces. He holds a PhD in economics from ANU and understands why markets and openness have been essential to Australia’s success. But as a PM’s Chief of Staff, including during the COVID outbreak, John is well aware of the complexity of Australia’s national interests, the difficult of making policy, and the challenges posed by China and, lately, Donald Trump’s America. The conversation starts with President Trump and the United States, moves to China, and finishes at home on how Australia needs new thinking, and new policy processes, to navigate this moment in history. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links John Kunkel (bio): https://www.ussc.edu.au/john-kunkel Adam Posen, “Trade wars are easy to lose”, Foreign Affairs, 9 April 2025: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/tariffs-trade-wars-are-easy-lose Yuval Levin Wikipedia page (author of “The Great Debate”, “The Fractured Republic” and “A Time to Build”): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuval_Levin Thomas Sowell, A Conflict of Visions (1987): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Conflict_of_Visions James Q Wilson, The Moral Sense (1993): https://www.simonandschuster.com.au/books/The-Moral-Sense/James-Q-Wilson/9780684833323 China Talk (podcast), “Ezra, Derek and Dan Wang”, 9 May 2025: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/abundance-and-antagonism

Australia’s federal election delivered a clear and in many ways stunning victory for the incumbent centre-left Labor government led by PM Anthony Albanese. Coming a week after an even more astonishing victory by the centre-left Liberal Party in Canada, Darren is intensely focused on the extent to which President Trump, and Trumpism, played a meaningful role in Labor’s victory, and what this devastation means for the future of conservative politics in Australia. Darren is joined again by good friend and journalist Eliza Harvey, who is Executive Producer of the ABC’s Q&A program, to talk things through. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Daniel Jeffrey, “Gina Rinehart calls for Liberal Party to embrace Trumpist policies, laments election result”, Nine News, 5 May 2025: https://www.9news.com.au/national/federal-election-2025-gina-rinehart-statement/573c7c24-c4a0-4be4-8d99-6c25ffc4b8dc “Outgoing MP Keith Wolahan outlines Liberal Party's urban challenge” (Video), Insiders (ABC News), 4 May 2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kUS3m_j4_w Sinners (film): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinners_(2025_film) Say nothing (TV series): https://www.disneyplus.com/en-au/browse/entity-ada252dd-714c-4c2c-b15c-f1ed93cdf5b0 Geraldine Brooks, Memorial Days: https://www.hachette.com.au/geraldine-brooks/memorial-days

With four episodes on tariffs this month, the podcast has already broken its monthly episode record. Nevertheless, news is also happening elsewhere, and for the past few months a number of interesting stories emerged in Southeast Asia. Then, given that Southeast Asian economies are some of the most directly affected by Trump’s tariff policies, the need for a conversation centred on Southeast Asia only increased, starting with how the US is perceived and the assessments being made regarding the region’s strategic trajectory. To discuss all this and more, Aaron Connolly returns to the podcast. Aaron is Asia Diplomatic Editor and Singapore Bureau Chief at The Economist, having joined the newspaper from the International Institute of Strategic Studies where he was working the last time he appeared on the podcast. Aaron offers both a big picture strategic landscape of the region, and broad and deep knowledge of details, both political and economic. In addition to Trump and tariffs, Darren and Aaron discuss Indonesia’s recent military reforms and other policies of the Prabowo administration, Thailand’s deportation of Uighurs to China, and the arrest of former Philippines president Duterte. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Aaron Connelly (bio): https://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/aaron-connelly/ The Economist, “Prabowo Subianto takes a chainsaw to Indonesia’s budget”, 27 February 2025: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/02/27/prabowo-subianto-takes-a-chainsaw-to-indonesias-budget Scam Inc (podcast), The Economist: https://www.economist.com/audio/podcasts/scam-inc Money Talks (podcast), The Economist: https://www.economist.com/audio/podcasts/money-talks Odd Lots (podcast), “What a us stove maker thinks about tariffs” 14 April 2025: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2025-04-14/odd-lots-what-a-us-stove-maker-thinks-about-tariffs-podcast