Australia in the World

Darren is joined by returning guest Richard Maude to unpack what Australian foreign policy looks like in late 2025. The conversation centres on Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s recent AIIA speech, which Darren argues—mostly with Richard’s agreement—marks a clear evolution in Australia’s foreign policy doctrine. The traditional three pillars — alliance, region, and rules — have been replaced by a new framework, the "Four Rs": Region, Relationships, Rules, and Resilience. The discussion explores what this shift reveals about how Canberra sees the world today, and what it tells us about Australia’s strategic priorities as the international environment becomes more volatile. Together, they assess how well the government is executing each of the “Four Rs” in practice — from strengthening ties across Southeast Asia and the Pacific, to managing the alliance with an unpredictable Washington, stabilising relations with Beijing, and linking foreign policy more overtly with domestic resilience. They ask whether Australia is being suitably ambitious in shaping the regional security environment, or whether it risks becoming over-focused on Southeast Asia at the expense of alliance leadership and broader coordination with partners like Japan, Korea and Europe. Darren and Richard also grapple with Australia–China relations. Is Canberra being too cautious in public language — or sensibly risk-averse? Darren frames the question as whether the greater risk currently lies in under-reacting to the threat posed by China, or in over-reacting. And how should Australia manage economic dependence on China given the limits of diversification and the “iron laws” of trade?  The fourth R is resilience, and they discuss whether tying domestic policy to foreign policy is a strength or a political trap. They consider how resilience language enables governments to justify hard economic choices, while also warning against overselling national security policy as economic strategy. Finally, Darren and Richard look ahead to 2026. Richard nominates three global questions to watch closely: the trajectory of US–China relations, the fate of Ukraine, and whether anything remains of the liberal international project. Darren adds his own focal points: Australia’s critical minerals strategy, Europe’s struggle with Chinese economic leverage, and the political durability of Trump’s dominance ahead of the US midterms. A wide-ranging episode on doctrine, diplomacy and domestic politics — and what it all means for Australia navigating a world that feels, as Richard once put it, "completely stuffed". Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Richard Maude (bio): https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/richard-maude Penny Wong, “AIIA Gala Dinner Keynote Address”, 17 November 2025: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/aiia-gala-dinner-keynote-address Darren Lim and Hannah Nelson, “From Three Strands to Four Rs: The Evolution of Australian Foreign Policy”, Australian Outlook, 21 November 2025: https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/from-three-strands-to-four-rs-the-evolution-of-australian-foreign-policy/ Penny Wong, “Speech to the ANU National Security College “Securing our Future”, 9 April 2024: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/speech-anu-national-security-college-securing-our-future Allan Gyngell, Fear of Abandonment: Australia in the World since 1942: https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/fear-abandonment Heather Smith, “Australia and Economic Cold War – Drifting into the New Paradigm”, AIIA 2025 National Conference Address, 17 November 2025: https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/australia-and-economic-cold-war-drifting-into-the-new-paradigm/ Penny Wong, TV interview, ABC Insiders (with David Speers), 16 November 2025: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/transcript/tv-interview-abc-insiders-0 Eli Hayes and Darren Lim, “Not every critical mineral is equal – and Australia’s policy should reflect this”, Lowy Interpreter, 10 November 2025: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/not-every-critical-mineral-equal-australia-s-policy-should-reflect Darren Lim and Nathan Attrill, “Australian debate of the China question: The COVID-19 case”, Australian Journal of International Affairs (2021): https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10357718.2021.1940094 (gated) or https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3856586 (ungated) Jedediah Britton-Purdy and David Pozen, “What are we living through?”, Boston Review, 15 October 2025: https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/what-are-we-living-through/ Lachlan Strahan, The Curious Diplomat: A memoir from the frontlines of diplomacy (Monash University Publishing, 2025): https://publishing.monash.edu/product/the-curious-diplomat/ Nick Potkalitsky, “Where Should Student AI Literacy Live?”, Educating AI (Substack), 25 September 2025: https://nickpotkalitsky.substack.com/p/where-should-student-ai-literacy Ethan Mollick, “The Best Available Human Standard”, One Useful Thing (Substack), 22 October 2023: https://www.oneusefulthing.org/p/the-best-available-human-standard Ethan Mollick, “15 Times to use AI, and 5 Not to”, One Useful Thing (Substack), 9 December 2024: https://www.oneusefulthing.org/p/15-times-to-use-ai-and-5-not-to

Zack Cooper of the American Enterprise Institute returns to the podcast to discuss the recent Trump-Xi meeting in Seoul. Who got the better deal, and is the year-long “truce” a stable one?  As both sides look to use this window to de-risk, who will have more leverage over the medium term? More broadly, Trump’s Asia trip was a very important data point in helping us all understand what US foreign policy is now, how it is made, and what direction it’s going in. The answers are not satisfying and very uncertain, but it’s the most important question in international affairs today. There is no-one better than Zack to help one build a model of US foreign policy in the Trump era. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Zack Cooper, “How Trump Put China First”, Time, 7 November: https://www.aei.org/articles/how-trump-put-china-first/ Lindsey Ford and Zack Cooper, “America’s Alliances After Trump: Lessons from the Summer of ’69”, Texas National Security Review, Vol. 4, Iss. 2, Spring 2021, pp. 99-116: https://tnsr.org/2021/03/americas-alliances-after-trump-lessons-from-the-summer-of-69/ Darren Lim and Zack Cooper. (2015). “Reassessing Hedging: The Logic of Alignment in East Asia”. Security Studies, 24(4), 696–727:  https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2015.1103130 Ezra Klein, “This Is How the Democratic Party Beats Trump”, New York Times, 2 November 2025 (video): https://www.nytimes.com/video/opinion/100000010495041/this-is-how-the-democratic-party-beats-trump.html Vanity Fair, “How EJAE & Mark Sonnenblick Created Grammy-Nominated “Golden" From KPop Demon Hunters” (video): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxEX_GWwE7M Joseph Torigian, “The Party’s Interests Come First: The Life of Xi Zhongxun, Father of Xi Jinping” (2025): https://josephtorigian.com/bookmanuscript/

The much-anticipated face-to-face meeting between Prime Minister Albanese and President Trump has happened, not in the Oval Office but the Cabinet Room of the White House. The PM will be very pleased with how it went, with only one major casualty – embarrassment for Australia’s US Ambassador Kevin Rudd, after past tweets critical of the president were brought up, creating some awkwardness. To discuss the dynamics and outcomes of the meeting Darren welcomes Dr. Charles Edel to the podcast, a long overdue guest, and the best-placed individual anywhere to provide insight into these events, and the broader alliance relationship. Why was the meeting needed? While widely agreed to have gone well, what exactly made the meeting a success? What is the status of AUKUS now, and what about critical minerals? And, while he did not have a good time at the meeting, how has Kevin Rudd been an essential part of the process and key to its success? Charles is a senior adviser and the inaugural Australia Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He previously taught at the University of Sydney, where he was also a senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre. Prior to that, Charles was a professor of strategy and policy at the U.S. Naval War College and served on the U.S. secretary of state’s Policy Planning Staff. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Charles Edel (bio): https://www.csis.org/people/charles-edel Abraham Denmark and Charles Edel, “The AUKUS Inflection: Seizing the Opportunity to Deliver Deterrence”, CSIS Australia Chair Report, August 2025: https://www.csis.org/analysis/aukus-inflection-seizing-opportunity-deliver-deterrence Annabel Crabbe, “When Donald Trump was ready to take his pound of flesh, Kevin Rudd was here to help”, ABC News, 21 October: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-21/trump-albanese-meeting-rudd-pound-of-flesh/105916336 Australian Industry Group, “Developing industry capability and partnerships for AUKUS Pillar 2”, Report, August 2025: https://www.aigroup.com.au/globalassets/news/reports/2025/ai_group_spg_report_aukus_pillar-ii.pdf Trent Dalton, Gravity let me go, (4th estate, 2025): https://www.harpercollins.com.au/9781460713334/gravity-let-me-go/

Darren welcomes back Tim Watts MP to the podcast. Tim is now the government’s Special Envoy for Indian Ocean Affairs having also served as assistant minister for foreign affairs in the Albanese government’s first term. The discussion begins with Tim’s new role and the importance of the Indian Ocean Region to Australia’s national interests. From there, Darren asks Tim to reflect on his time as Assistant Foreign Minister and what the work he did says about Australian foreign policy more broadly. What are the inputs to success? The conversation finishes with the vital (and ongoing) challenge of Asian capability.  Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Peter Dean and Alice Nason, An Australian Indian Ocean agenda to 2035, United States Studies Centre Report, September 2025: https://www.ussc.edu.au/an-australian-indian-ocean-agenda-to-2035 Allan Gyngell, “White-papering Australian foreign policy”, East Asia Forum, 22 May 2017: https://eastasiaforum.org/2017/05/22/white-papering-australian-foreign-policy/ Tim Watts, “Complacent nation: Australia and the Asian Century”, Lowy Interpreter, 22 September 2025: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/complacent-nation-australia-asian-century Joya Chatterji, Shadows at Noon: The South Asian Twentieth Century (Vintage, 2024): https://www.penguin.com.au/books/shadows-at-noon-9781529925555 David Van Reybrouck, Revolusi: Indonesia and the Birth of the Modern World (Vintage, 2025): https://www.penguin.com.au/books/revolusi-9781529931525 Stephen Dziedzic and Yiying Li, “BHP vs China Inc: What the iron ore dispute says about Australia's present and future”, ABC News, 17 October: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-17/what-bhp-china-iron-ore-dispute-means-to-australia/105901692

Former Victorian Premier Dan Andrews made headlines when he was snapped in a picture with Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un, amongst others, at China’s recent military parade. While Andrews’ activities were puzzling, they also raise bigger questions around both the opportunities and the limits of Australia’s bilateral relationship with China. Will Glasgow, The Australian newspaper’s North Asia Correspondent, based in Beijing, joins Darren for this episode. Will is winner of the Keith McDonald Award for Business Journalist of the Year and previously worked at The Australian Financial Review. The conversation begins with Will’s own story in his current role, beginning in Beijing in early 2020, then leaving China and reporting from Taipei, before returning to Beijing in 2024. The main focus however is the bilateral relationship, both from the perspective of Canberra and Beijing, but also from Australian states, especially Victoria, where Dan Andrews was Premier, and Western Australia. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Will Glasgow (bio): https://www.theaustralian.com.au/author/will-glasgow Will Glasgow, “China’s warning to Australian delegation over ‘two-faced’ policy”, The Australian, 20 Sep 2025: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/beijings-warning-to-canberra-delegation-over-twofaced-policy/news-story/327ce23188ec4ed7e607e2f066ab010e Will Glasgow, “Australia wined, dined and hectored on Xi’s diplomatic conveyor belt”, The Australian, 13 Sep 2025: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/wined-dined-and-hectored-on-xis-diplomatic-conveyor-belt/news-story/84d5771d3b9c925797850baf29c1627b Will Glasgow, “Should Australian correspondents be based in Xi’s China?”, The Australian, 22 Jul 2025: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/should-australian-correspondents-be-based-in-xis-china/news-story/7b2375eb1343726f0d1a3cc5ea698e74 Geremie Barmé, “In a retro mood: The ethical dilemmas of cutting a deal with Xi Jinping’s China”, The China Project, 15 Sep 2023: https://thechinaproject.com/2023/09/15/in-a-retro-mood-the-ethical-dilemmas-of-cutting-a-deal-with-xi-jinpings-china/ Foreign Policy Live (podcast), “Adam Tooze on the End of Development”, 19 Sep 2025: https://foreignpolicy.com/podcasts/foreign-policy-live/adam-tooze-on-the-end-of-development/ Josh Rogin, Chaos Under Heaven: Trump, Xi, and the Battle for the Twenty-First Century, Harper Collins (2021): https://www.harpercollins.com.au/9780358449348/chaos-under-heaven/ Tanner Greer, “Bullets and Ballots: The Legacy of Charlie Kirk”, The Scholar’s Stage, 14 Sep 2025: https://scholars-stage.org/bullets-and-ballots-the-legacy-of-charlie-kirk/ Fuschia Dunlop, Invitation to a Banquet: The Story of Chinese Food, Penguin (2024): https://www.penguin.com.au/books/invitation-to-a-banquet-9780141997216 Qiu Xiaolong, The Inspector Chen Series: https://www.qiuxiaolong.com/books_inspectorChen.php The Chinese Mayor (documentary): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w_LSNrpKPc

PM Albanese recently travelled to Solomon Islands for the Pacific Islands Forum as well as Vanuatu and PNG. The headlines focused on what didn’t happen – neither an ambitious deal with Vanuatu (Nakamal Agreement) nor a security agreement with PNG were finalised (though the PNG seems close). Today’s episode (recorded 18 Sep) considers these and other stories through the dual lenses of development policy and foreign policy with Bridi Rice, CEO of the Development Intelligence Lab, returning as guest. Development isn’t just isolated acts like building schools and hospitals but is very wide range of actions that are inevitably nested in a strategic context. How do we fit those things together? Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Examining 25 years of Australian international spending: https://www.devintelligencelab.com/budget-lines On Australian public perception of aid and development: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/australians-ahead-game-aid-debate-mps-should-follow ANU DevPol Analysis on budget implications: https://devpolicy.org/burden-shedding-the-unravelling-of-the-oecd-aid-consensus-20250307/ Lydia Khalil et al on democratic erosion: https://interactives.lowyinstitute.org/features/democratic-erosion/ The FT on AI as the new foreign aid: https://www.ft.com/content/d02eb244-8b48-48b1-bd17-f5e48677e22b Ezra Klein interviews Ben Shapiro: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EAqG00FUOK8 “Leave me lonely” by Hilltop Hoods: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vak9wUPkL3Q

In Darren’s own research, topics like tariffs, industrial policy and the decaying rules-based economic order are a daily focus. On these issues and many more relating to the global economy, financial markets, economic security, and US-China geoeconomic rivalry, there is no-one whose expertise and judgment Darren respects more than that of Brad Setser, today’s guest. In a conversation recorded on 1 September, three big themes are canvassed: (i) tariffs, (ii) China, and (iii) Australia’s position in a fraying economic order. As the hosts of the “Odd Lots” podcast would say, Brad is the ‘perfect’ guest, and Darren could not be more thrilled. What is motivating Trump, and what could constrain him? Which country has negotiated the best deal? Is China’s export-driven economic model locked in? Could other countries rein in Beijing’s overcapacity? Is the rules-based economic order finished? Brad Setser is the Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. His expertise includes global trade and capital flows, financial vulnerability analysis, and sovereign debt restructuring. Bred served as a senior advisor to the United States Trade Representative from 2021 to 2022 and as the deputy assistant secretary for international economic analysis in the U.S. Treasury from 2011 to 2015. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Brad Setser (bio): https://www.cfr.org/expert/brad-w-setser Odd Lots (podcast), "Liz Truss on the 'Doom Loop' Engulfing the UK Economy", 29 August 2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yyQOEJ38kW8 Jonathon Sine, “Litigation Nation, Engineering Empire: A review of Dan Wang's new book Breakneck”, Cogitations (substack), 28 August 2025: https://www.cogitations.co/p/litigation-nation-engineering-empire Bob Davis and Lingling Wei, Superpower Showdown: How the Battle between Trump and Xi Threatens a New Cold War (Harper Collins, 2020): https://www.harpercollins.com.au/9780062953070/superpower-showdown/ Mark Kurlansky, Salt: A world history (Penguin, 2003): https://www.harpercollins.com.au/9780062953070/superpower-showdown/

Darren welcomes Richard McGregor, Senior Fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute and author of influential books "The Party" and "Xi Jinping: The Backlash," to discuss China's evolving political landscape and global position in 2025. The discussion begins with examining how Xi Jinping has consolidated power beyond what seemed possible 15 years ago, eliminating term limits and establishing one-man rule despite China's complexity. Richard describes the muted but persistent internal resistance to Xi's leadership, including purged officials and liberal critics waiting in the wings, while noting how US-China tensions help Xi maintain domestic support. The conversation moves to China's economic challenges, from the property crisis to overcapacity, and how the centralisation of power has shifted local government financing. McGregor discusses the sustainability of Xi's nationalist governance model and China's strengths in technological innovation despite structural problems. On foreign policy, they analyse Trump's return and its implications for China, Southeast Asia's complex relationship with both superpowers, and the critical Taiwan issue. The episode concludes with an assessment of Australia-China relations under the Albanese government's "stabilisation" approach, examining domestic political factors and emerging challenges around Chinese technology integration in Australia's economy. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Richard McGregor (bio): https://www.lowyinstitute.org/people/experts/bio/richard-mcgregor Richard McGregor, The Party: The Secret World of China's Communist Rulers, (Penguin, 2012, Revised Edition): https://www.penguin.com.au/books/the-party-9780141975559 Richard McGregor, Xi Jinping: The Backlash, (Penguin, 2019): https://www.penguin.com.au/books/xi-jinping-a-lowy-institute-paper-penguin-special-9781760893040 Kevin Rudd, The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping’s China (Hachette, 2022): https://www.hachette.com.au/kevin-rudd/the-avoidable-war-the-dangers-of-a-catastrophic-conflict-between-the-us-and-xi-jinpings-china Desmond Shum, Red Roulette: An Insider's Story of Wealth, Power, Corruption and Vengeance in Today's China (Simon & Schuster, 2022): https://www.simonandschuster.com.au/books/Red-Roulette/Desmond-Shum/9781398510388 Chun Han Wong, “Party of One: The Rise of Xi Jinping and China's Superpower Future (Avid Reader Press/Simon & Schuster, 2024): https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Party-of-One/Chun-Han-Wong/9781982185749 Patrick McGee, Apple in China: The Capture of the World's Greatest Company (Simon & Schuster, 2025): https://www.simonandschuster.com.au/books/Apple-in-China/Patrick-McGee/9781398534377

It’s time for another tariff episode, and Darren is joined by returning guest Corbin Duncan, a journalist with The Economist (and valued Australia in the world team member) to talk through an avalanche of tariff news. Apologies for the poor quality of audio from Darren’s end. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research, co-hosting and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Security Economics (podcast), “Trump's new global tariff regime is here!”, 7 August 2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-St1M0DRcU Darren Lim and John Ikenberry, “China and the logic of illiberal hegemony”, Security Studies: (ungated) https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4244377  || (gated) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2178963 Triple J, Hottest 100 of Australian Songs: https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/countdown/hottest100/1-100 Sam Tanenhaus, Buckley: The Life and the Revolution That Changed America, Penguin Random House: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/176399/buckley-by-sam-tanenhaus/ Jospeh Torigian, The Party's Interests Come First:The Life of Xi Zhongxun, Father of Xi Jinping, Standford University Press, https://www.sup.org/books/history/partys-interests-come-first

The PM made a big trip to China, and the ABC’s Stephen Dziedzic accompanied him as part of the press contingent. Darren and Stephen discuss both Beijing’s and Canberra’s interests in the visit, the careful diplomacy of the week, an apparent effort from the Trump administration to use the Taiwan issue to derail the visit, and whether Australia really is in a “post stabilisation” phase in its bilateral relationship with China. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Stephen Dziedzic, “Albanese bats away questions about Taiwan and US defence demands on first day of China visit”, ABC News, 13 July 2025: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-13/albanese-taiwan-us-defence-demands-china-visit/105526626 Stephen Dziedzic, “China's Premier Li Qiang calls for more economic ties with Australia in meeting with Anthony Albanese”, ABC News, 16 July 2025: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-16/anthony-albanese-meets-li-qiang-business-leaders-in-china/105536072 “What does the PM's trip to China mean for Taiwan? | Insiders On Background” ABC News, 19 July 2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rP5Y0nKmxt0 PM Albanese, John Curtin Oration, 5 July 2025: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/john-curtin-oration Dwarkesh Patel, “China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber’ (podcast), 20 June 2025: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/arthur-kroeber The rest is history (podcast): https://open.spotify.com/show/7Cvsbcjhtur7nplC148TWy (Spotify) | https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-rest-is-history/id1537788786 (Apple)