Ep. 165: China in 2025 and what's changed

Darren welcomes Richard McGregor, Senior Fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute and author of influential books "The Party" and "Xi Jinping: The Backlash," to discuss China's evolving political landscape and global position in 2025.

The discussion begins with examining how Xi Jinping has consolidated power beyond what seemed possible 15 years ago, eliminating term limits and establishing one-man rule despite China's complexity. Richard describes the muted but persistent internal resistance to Xi's leadership, including purged officials and liberal critics waiting in the wings, while noting how US-China tensions help Xi maintain domestic support.

The conversation moves to China's economic challenges, from the property crisis to overcapacity, and how the centralisation of power has shifted local government financing. McGregor discusses the sustainability of Xi's nationalist governance model and China's strengths in technological innovation despite structural problems.

On foreign policy, they analyse Trump's return and its implications for China, Southeast Asia's complex relationship with both superpowers, and the critical Taiwan issue. The episode concludes with an assessment of Australia-China relations under the Albanese government's "stabilisation" approach, examining domestic political factors and emerging challenges around Chinese technology integration in Australia's economy.

Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Relevant links

Richard McGregor (bio): https://www.lowyinstitute.org/people/experts/bio/richard-mcgregor

Richard McGregor, The Party: The Secret World of China's Communist Rulers, (Penguin, 2012, Revised Edition): https://www.penguin.com.au/books/the-party-9780141975559

Richard McGregor, Xi Jinping: The Backlash, (Penguin, 2019): https://www.penguin.com.au/books/xi-jinping-a-lowy-institute-paper-penguin-special-9781760893040

Kevin Rudd, The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping’s China (Hachette, 2022): https://www.hachette.com.au/kevin-rudd/the-avoidable-war-the-dangers-of-a-catastrophic-conflict-between-the-us-and-xi-jinpings-china

Desmond Shum, Red Roulette: An Insider's Story of Wealth, Power, Corruption and Vengeance in Today's China (Simon & Schuster, 2022): https://www.simonandschuster.com.au/books/Red-Roulette/Desmond-Shum/9781398510388

Chun Han Wong, “Party of One: The Rise of Xi Jinping and China's Superpower Future (Avid Reader Press/Simon & Schuster, 2024): https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Party-of-One/Chun-Han-Wong/9781982185749

Patrick McGee, Apple in China: The Capture of the World's Greatest Company (Simon & Schuster, 2025): https://www.simonandschuster.com.au/books/Apple-in-China/Patrick-McGee/9781398534377