Multipolarity

Most people have never heard of Guyana. Many think it’s in Africa.But Venezuelans know their CIA World Factbook inside and out. They’ve long claimed that its Western regions are rightfully theirs. And now that the Guyanese have struck oil, the Maduro regime want to take those areas by conquest.The question isn’t can Venezuela - population 30m - knock over Guyana - population 790 000. With the West presently preoccupied on two other continents, it’s: who is going to stop them?  This week the world’s biggest oil producers announced they’d be sharply cutting back on production – and the oil price fell. There’s something screwy going on in the market. But who exactly has the power to manipulate the world’s biggest most internationalised market?Finally, this week in Middle East Corner, we’ve got yet another round of damaged ships. *** Get us on Patreon, yo: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=86737989

The Bank of England is at risk of going broke — and it wants both a bailout from the taxpayer and the ability to raise taxes all of its own. Exsqueeze me, baking powder? We’ll be digging into the modern model of Central Bank Independence the B of E represents. And asking whether the big brains of monetary policy have actually invented much more than a self-licking ice cream cone. Yankee Go Home - that’s the subtext of Victor Orban’s latest speech. Orban is often ahead of the curve when it comes to European affairs. So has Big Vic said the quiet part out loud? As the Ukraine war runs out of gas is there a new mood stalking the continent? Finally, we’ll be presenting our new weekly roundup of Middle Eastern regional politics. As the Israel-Gaza conflict staggers on into a tentative truce, how long can they keep it in the deep freeze?

Ireland erupts in 'the biggest riots since 1916'. The United Kingdom government dishes out its final budget before oblivion beckons, confirming what we've known for a while. With interest repayments now nearly 10 per cent of spending, there is an Argentinian world of pain just over the horizon. There's something irredeemably broken about the British Isles this week. So in this Premium Episode, the lads are going hard and deep on Europe's North-Western Archipelago.  

Goalkeeper, rock singer, sex guru, anarcho-syndicalist libertarian strongman El Presidente: Javier Milei has lived the life twelve year old boys dream of. So what happens when a true force of nature meets the iron law of Argentinian decline? Can Captain Ancap defeat the spectre of El Peronismo? The Chinese may be dumping US Treasuries. We’ve heard the theory so often it’s begun to sound like a conspiracy. But now a famous economist has graphs to back it up. Are they right? Or is this just another punnet of gay frogs? Until recently, the Houthi used to be just a typical Middle Eastern rebel terror group: kalashnikovs, pipe mortars, colourful flowing robes. But hold it there stereotype-ers: the Houthi have had a fabulous makeover. As of this week, they’re capturing Israeli cargo ships with helicopters, abseiling and Go Pros. As the Gaza conflict stain continues to spread, is the new aerodynamic Houthi a sign of things to come in the region? *** Twitter: https://twitter.com/MultipolarPodPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=86737989

The U.S. and coalition troops have been attacked at least 40 times in Iraq and Syria since early October. Initially, we were told there were only a handful of injuries. Now we hear there are scores. Why did they lie? As the US fumbles the bag on its response to the Gaza Crisis, regional actors are scenting blood. This week, in a special edition, we’re going to be talking about America’s power vacuum in the gulf. The war is expanding horizontally – and vertically. Many are wondering whether the US can still save its allies – and even if it can save itself. Malcom Kyeyune has been wondering aloud too. In a three-part essay series for the New Statesman, he has been surveying America’s strategic bind. This week, he joins us once again, to war game the war games. We’ll be talking about the base attacks that kicked it off. About The Strange Case of a Declaration of War that signalled America no longer even wants to acknowledge how deep the sinkhole goes. And about the region’s overall future as its hegemon wilts. *** Get Malcom's essay here: https://www.newstatesman.com/the-weekend-essay/2023/11/american-decline-strikes-bases-middle-eastSupport our fight against poorly-informed Pentagon hawks here: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=86737989

Halloween is when the freaks come out. So, this year, we're establishing our own fright night with Malcom Kyeyune, formerly Twitter's terrible infant. Tinkzorg, until his account was nixed. Now easily findable under another, NK-enjoying, moniker. The lads put him through his paces in a two hour fifteen Twitter Spaces session, that covered everything from nukes in the Middle East to things that are much, much worse than that... Please enjoy our gutbuster.

Recep Erodogan gave an inflammatory speech last week, in which he effectively backed the Hamas position, proclaiming them mujahideen - freedom fighters. Turkey, the lads suggest, is now openly trying to become a multipolar rallying-point for the muslim world. New polling suggests that Europeans think the Russian sanctions have been a disaster. Yet our present political class still have too much skin in the game to walk this one back. So how long must our emperors remain naked before the embarrasement becomes excruciating? In Britain, after two dire by-elections, the Conservative party is breaking records in all the wrong directions. With the party due to be reduced to a rump anyway, what will they do when Britain dips into a recession next year - and the rump becomes a morsel? 

In the next six weeks, anything can happen between Israel and Gaza. But in the next six months or two years, the consequences become in some ways more predictable. It is to this medium-range gaze that the lads now turn: looking at the US Presidential election, the EU's turn against Atlanticism, and the next energy shock, in a chock-full third premium edition of Multipolarity. To access, sign up on Patreon.

As Israel moves its artillery in to level Hamas, a new migrant crisis is brewing. Their Arab neighbours won’t take them - so with 2.1 million Gazans falling under every ECHR definition of refugee, is Europe’s always fractious migration politics about to fully fall off its perch? And while we’re on the subject, how is the war hotting up? After some humming and hawing about whether the IDF ground forces are ready to send the hummers in, we ask whether the Israelis and their allies are getting cold feet. Or is this the calm before a violent dessert storm?Off the naughty step. Donald Tusk has led a liberal anti-law & justice coalition to power in Poland, promising to put them back onto the path of being good European citizens. So what now for Europe’s internal axis of evil?

There's only one geopolitics story this week. This is our take.