Multipolarity

The podcast debunks predictions of a Chinese economic plummet, analyzes the lack of evidence supporting these claims, and explores potential issues in the housing sector. It also discusses how macroeconomists' expectations can influence market expectations, examines China's low inflation rate and its impact on economic growth, and highlights the recent scares in the Chinese housing market. Additionally, the podcast explores the BRICS summit and the agenda to reduce dependence on the US dollar, as well as troubling trends in the US housing market such as the decline in real estate activity in San Francisco and the exodus of investment firms from New York City.

UK poorer than Mississippi, housing crisis not just a supply issue, China repeals Houkoo Laws leading to economic boon in the East

This week, the lads are looking at ESG - Environment, Social & Governance. For years now, companies have been pushing the idea that an 'ESG Score' could be a profitable guide to investing. Yet this latest mind virus for the finance community has produced scrappy results. Now, with Blacrock and Standard & Poor dropping it in the face of tightening markets, Philip Pilkington looks back on the evolution of a fad. In Hong Kong, a little-known investment vehicle allows foreign companies to raise funds in Chinese Currency. Recently we learned that the quantity of 'Dim Sum Bonds' has gone up fourfold in five years. Is this the gateway drug to foreigners finally being allowed to invest in China's capital markets? Then, a consistent theme comes around. Measured by PPP, Germany's economy is on some metrics now smaller than Russia's. Andrew Collingwood analyses why and how the West walked into the strategic blunder of sanctions - one that seems to increasingly have world-historical consequences. 

As summer tightens its grip, the lads are getting back to basics, hosting a Spaces on "What Is Multipolarity"? Featuring Friend Of The Pod Malcom Kyeyune, aka @Tinkzorg. Enjoy. But don't inhale too deeply.

Ukraine has lost its grain deal. Russian fertiliser is struggling to get to market. Now India wants to ban exports of non-Basmati rice. The ratchet on food prices is by no means over. Now, the ratchet on politics really begins. Where are the next big food riots going to come from? Call in the plumbers: there’s a big blockage in the UK gilt markets. Why is liquidity suddenly drying up in a two trillion Pound pool? And what happens next – now that the British government might be forced to double its deficit?Remember the Huawei 5G Ban? For almost three years, sanctions on microchips knocked the Chinese out of the high end phone business. Now, it seems the company has managed to produce its own chips. Is there anything we can’t incentivise them to make better than us? **** Follow us on Twitter: @multipolarpodOr on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@multipolaritythepodcast

De-dollarisation. We've been warning about it since the start of the show. But it won't happen overnight. To arrive at a place where the dollar is just one of many global currencies is the work of years, maybe decades. In this Special Edition, our duo are taking the long view. We're going right back to Bretton Woods, to Nixon & The Gold Window, to the Emerging Markets Crisis of 97 and 98, and to the long sag of post-2008, to trace the internal logic of the dollar system. Then, we're peering into the near future: what could possibly replace it? How long would that take? Are there brakes on this train?

Malcom Kyeyune (@Tinkzorg on Twitter) is one of the smartest, most far-seeing commentators out there. Someone the lads have really chimed with. Earlier in this bonanza week, we paired him with Elbridge Colby, for a Twitter Spaces debating whether America could ever take a Realist turn. Now, he's back for a solo show. The lads go deep into Chairman Kyeyune Thought: from the worthlessness of much US military hardware, to the unrecognised shrinkage of the US economy on a PPP basis, to the cosplaying of Swedes in NATO. "So much of our politics today is just about managing narratives." "Will we act before the bad things happen? The signs are not auspicious..." "I'm optimistic... even if there is a nuclear war, five per cent of humanity will probably survive... and that's enough to repopulate the earth." Cheery guy.

Can you still get your Germanium on AliExpress? After the US restricted Chinese access to high-end chips, China is looking to ban this vital chip ingredient. So where do we go from here? Can America ban the stuff that makes Germanium? Or is this the Chinese going one step up in the chip wars?  For months, elements within NATO have been piling on the pressure to open a liaison office in Japan. The French think that’s a terrible idea. This week, they finally exercised their veto. So as the world becomes ever-more security-centred, what happens to Western powers that aren’t in the North Atlantic?  Finally, the US is sending cluster bombs to Ukraine. Or controversial cluster bombs to give them their full name. Now that even Rishi Sunak has come out against the decision, it seems  a wedge is about to be driven through the Western alliance. More broadly – are we about to move beyond the Geneva convention consensus on what weapons are barbarous?

This week, we hosted a special Twitter Spaces debate, now re-published as a podcast. The topic was: "Is Realism realistic for America, or will liberal idealists and neocons always control US foreign policy?" Can America's animal spirits shift strategy? We were joined by two of the world's top thinkers on the question, each with a distinct angle. @ElbridgeColby is the architect of the 2018 US National Defence Strategy, is the principal of the Marathon Initiative, which develops strategies to prepare the US for an era of sustained great power competition. His book, The Strategy of Denial, caused a sensation in International Relation circles.Malcolm Kyeyune (@tinkzorg) is a Swedish journalist who writes for @compactmag_, @unherd and @AmericanAffrsHis brilliant essay, The Tragedy of Foreign Policy Realism, praised Elbridge Colby's book but suggested that America would struggle to ever accept a Realist foreign policy.Here, they're joined by the lads - Collingwood as moderator, Pilkington as agent provocateur, in a spirited discussion that BLOWS THE LIVING BEJEESUS out of everything you EVER THOUGHT YOU UNDERSTOOD about International Relations. After 90 minutes, the stream was ended suddenly by a technical error, after a toaster blew up in the recording studio, setting fire to the reel-to-reels - apologies for the abruptness.

As France mops up the ashes of the burnt-out banlieues, data shows national food spending is down thirty per cent year on year. It’s not quite Les Miserables, but right across Europe, it seems that hangry might turn out to be the dominant political mode of 2023.China is building a trade superweapon. They’ve just created a brand new foreign relations department that will have the scope to take charge of tariffs and imports. It feels like we’ve arrived at the mutually assured destruction phase of a potential trade war. The question is: will anyone be bold enough to punch in the launch codes?A shock German poll suggests the AfD is within 3 points of the centre-right CDU. With the centre-left SPD of Olaf Scholz lagging behind both, it seems as though the next German election coalition could be between the right and the hard-right.So will the country be able to hold onto its historic cordon sanitaire? Or is this the moment when even the eternally dull German politics finally gets spicy?