Multipolarity

Gold has lost its tiny mind. Traditionally, it rises in line with inflation surges. And falls with interest rate rises. Until now. Like a classic heist film, there’s a plot underway. Central banks, including China, are buying it up in bulk, preparing for a future of de-dollarization.  The fallout between India and Canada rumbles on, with India expelling 41 Canadian diplomats. The world’s most unlikely political rivalry might be terrible for international thriller writers, but as we’ll be pointing out, it’s also terrible for the West’s ability to project a united front against an increasingly voluble Developing World. Nearly twice the Irish GDP has been pumped into Biden’s big green bill, the so-called Inflation Reduction Act. So as renewable stocks collapse by 20 per cent in recent months, are we about to see his Democrats hoist on a wave of renewable company defaults? *** Catch us on Patreon, yo: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=86737989

Praise the Lord, it's Premium Week. In a gut buster 90 minute sesh, the lads are taking apart the most likely scenarios for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. The military strategies. The economic implications. From the whistle blowing on a troop carrier as the gate falls, to the itchy nuclear trigger fingers in Beijing and Washington, this is our full kino take on how the war would be won, and where it would get us. To listen, please go to Patreon and sign up for the $5 tier. You can cancel any time. https://www.patreon.com/user?u=86737989

It hasn’t happened since 1914, but invading Mexico is suddenly back in fashion. Dan Crenshaw and Tom Cotton want to send US Security Forces across the Rio Grande. Vivek Ramaswamy wants a shock and awe campaign in the drug war. For all the obvious aesthetic value, this week, we consider: Is it actually a good idea to invade a neighbouring state? Ursula von der Leyen has launched an EU probe into Chinese EVs. Coincidentally, it seems, at the exact moment that Chinese EVs are rapidly overwhelming their German and French competitors. Is this yet more evidence that the old WTO world is breaking down under the intensity of Far Eastern competition? Or is it just an entirely randomly-timed, totally-above-board probe? Remember stock buybacks? When the QE financial firehose was first turned on, CEOs with nothing better to do found they could boost shareholder value by simply buying up their own equity with free money. But as rates normalise – and the tide goes out on all those overvalued corporations – it’s time to see who was swimming naked. 

The Three Seas. For much of eastern European history that’s meant chaos, conflict and conquest. These days, it’s a new initiative to link the Adriatic, the Baltic and the Black Seas. And it’s just added Greece as its 13th member. So is it a genetic freak of good intentions that will die naturally? Or is it the start of something altogether more toothy – a new kind of US dominance in Eastern Europe? The IRA is pumping money into the US economy. Meanwhile, over at the Fed, Jerome Powell is tightening the screws. It seems like fiscal and monetary policy in America are operating at cross-purposes. So is this macro-economic black magic designed to cast a love spell over the US electorate in the runup to 2024? And now, the Saudis have announced that they want to take oil back up to hundred dollars a barrel. Is their proposed spike a counter-spell to blast Biden out of the Beltway? *** Get us on Patreon, yo... https://www.patreon.com/user?u=86737989

The G20 meeting is losing relevance compared to organizations like BRICS. Huawei has successfully made their own 5G model. The US treasury is running a deficit as big as any in war time. The rise of Huawei impacts competitors like Samsung and Apple. The US budget deficit is projected to double to two trillion dollars. The possibility of a US government shutdown looms with no clear economic plan.

This week, we launch our first premium episode.It's a deep - and lengthy - consideration of two of populism's big challengers. Javier Milei - who now looks set to win the Argentinian presidential election. And Vivek Ramaswamy - who may even come second to Trump. *** To listen beyond this teaser, just jump over to Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=86737989Sign up for the 5 bucks tier. And stick the secret RSS feed in your podcast player of choice.

The podcast debunks predictions of a Chinese economic plummet, analyzes the lack of evidence supporting these claims, and explores potential issues in the housing sector. It also discusses how macroeconomists' expectations can influence market expectations, examines China's low inflation rate and its impact on economic growth, and highlights the recent scares in the Chinese housing market. Additionally, the podcast explores the BRICS summit and the agenda to reduce dependence on the US dollar, as well as troubling trends in the US housing market such as the decline in real estate activity in San Francisco and the exodus of investment firms from New York City.

UK poorer than Mississippi, housing crisis not just a supply issue, China repeals Houkoo Laws leading to economic boon in the East

This week, the lads are looking at ESG - Environment, Social & Governance. For years now, companies have been pushing the idea that an 'ESG Score' could be a profitable guide to investing. Yet this latest mind virus for the finance community has produced scrappy results. Now, with Blacrock and Standard & Poor dropping it in the face of tightening markets, Philip Pilkington looks back on the evolution of a fad. In Hong Kong, a little-known investment vehicle allows foreign companies to raise funds in Chinese Currency. Recently we learned that the quantity of 'Dim Sum Bonds' has gone up fourfold in five years. Is this the gateway drug to foreigners finally being allowed to invest in China's capital markets? Then, a consistent theme comes around. Measured by PPP, Germany's economy is on some metrics now smaller than Russia's. Andrew Collingwood analyses why and how the West walked into the strategic blunder of sanctions - one that seems to increasingly have world-historical consequences. 

As summer tightens its grip, the lads are getting back to basics, hosting a Spaces on "What Is Multipolarity"? Featuring Friend Of The Pod Malcom Kyeyune, aka @Tinkzorg. Enjoy. But don't inhale too deeply.