Multipolarity

Recep Erodogan gave an inflammatory speech last week, in which he effectively backed the Hamas position, proclaiming them mujahideen - freedom fighters. Turkey, the lads suggest, is now openly trying to become a multipolar rallying-point for the muslim world. New polling suggests that Europeans think the Russian sanctions have been a disaster. Yet our present political class still have too much skin in the game to walk this one back. So how long must our emperors remain naked before the embarrasement becomes excruciating? In Britain, after two dire by-elections, the Conservative party is breaking records in all the wrong directions. With the party due to be reduced to a rump anyway, what will they do when Britain dips into a recession next year - and the rump becomes a morsel? 

In the next six weeks, anything can happen between Israel and Gaza. But in the next six months or two years, the consequences become in some ways more predictable. It is to this medium-range gaze that the lads now turn: looking at the US Presidential election, the EU's turn against Atlanticism, and the next energy shock, in a chock-full third premium edition of Multipolarity. To access, sign up on Patreon.

As Israel moves its artillery in to level Hamas, a new migrant crisis is brewing. Their Arab neighbours won’t take them - so with 2.1 million Gazans falling under every ECHR definition of refugee, is Europe’s always fractious migration politics about to fully fall off its perch? And while we’re on the subject, how is the war hotting up? After some humming and hawing about whether the IDF ground forces are ready to send the hummers in, we ask whether the Israelis and their allies are getting cold feet. Or is this the calm before a violent dessert storm?Off the naughty step. Donald Tusk has led a liberal anti-law & justice coalition to power in Poland, promising to put them back onto the path of being good European citizens. So what now for Europe’s internal axis of evil?

There's only one geopolitics story this week. This is our take.

Gold has lost its tiny mind. Traditionally, it rises in line with inflation surges. And falls with interest rate rises. Until now. Like a classic heist film, there’s a plot underway. Central banks, including China, are buying it up in bulk, preparing for a future of de-dollarization.  The fallout between India and Canada rumbles on, with India expelling 41 Canadian diplomats. The world’s most unlikely political rivalry might be terrible for international thriller writers, but as we’ll be pointing out, it’s also terrible for the West’s ability to project a united front against an increasingly voluble Developing World. Nearly twice the Irish GDP has been pumped into Biden’s big green bill, the so-called Inflation Reduction Act. So as renewable stocks collapse by 20 per cent in recent months, are we about to see his Democrats hoist on a wave of renewable company defaults? *** Catch us on Patreon, yo: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=86737989

Praise the Lord, it's Premium Week. In a gut buster 90 minute sesh, the lads are taking apart the most likely scenarios for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. The military strategies. The economic implications. From the whistle blowing on a troop carrier as the gate falls, to the itchy nuclear trigger fingers in Beijing and Washington, this is our full kino take on how the war would be won, and where it would get us. To listen, please go to Patreon and sign up for the $5 tier. You can cancel any time. https://www.patreon.com/user?u=86737989

It hasn’t happened since 1914, but invading Mexico is suddenly back in fashion. Dan Crenshaw and Tom Cotton want to send US Security Forces across the Rio Grande. Vivek Ramaswamy wants a shock and awe campaign in the drug war. For all the obvious aesthetic value, this week, we consider: Is it actually a good idea to invade a neighbouring state? Ursula von der Leyen has launched an EU probe into Chinese EVs. Coincidentally, it seems, at the exact moment that Chinese EVs are rapidly overwhelming their German and French competitors. Is this yet more evidence that the old WTO world is breaking down under the intensity of Far Eastern competition? Or is it just an entirely randomly-timed, totally-above-board probe? Remember stock buybacks? When the QE financial firehose was first turned on, CEOs with nothing better to do found they could boost shareholder value by simply buying up their own equity with free money. But as rates normalise – and the tide goes out on all those overvalued corporations – it’s time to see who was swimming naked. 

The Three Seas. For much of eastern European history that’s meant chaos, conflict and conquest. These days, it’s a new initiative to link the Adriatic, the Baltic and the Black Seas. And it’s just added Greece as its 13th member. So is it a genetic freak of good intentions that will die naturally? Or is it the start of something altogether more toothy – a new kind of US dominance in Eastern Europe? The IRA is pumping money into the US economy. Meanwhile, over at the Fed, Jerome Powell is tightening the screws. It seems like fiscal and monetary policy in America are operating at cross-purposes. So is this macro-economic black magic designed to cast a love spell over the US electorate in the runup to 2024? And now, the Saudis have announced that they want to take oil back up to hundred dollars a barrel. Is their proposed spike a counter-spell to blast Biden out of the Beltway? *** Get us on Patreon, yo... https://www.patreon.com/user?u=86737989

The G20 meeting is losing relevance compared to organizations like BRICS. Huawei has successfully made their own 5G model. The US treasury is running a deficit as big as any in war time. The rise of Huawei impacts competitors like Samsung and Apple. The US budget deficit is projected to double to two trillion dollars. The possibility of a US government shutdown looms with no clear economic plan.

This week, we launch our first premium episode.It's a deep - and lengthy - consideration of two of populism's big challengers. Javier Milei - who now looks set to win the Argentinian presidential election. And Vivek Ramaswamy - who may even come second to Trump. *** To listen beyond this teaser, just jump over to Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=86737989Sign up for the 5 bucks tier. And stick the secret RSS feed in your podcast player of choice.