Oil Ground Up

Rory Johnston welcomes Arjun Murti, a partner at Veriten and former Goldman Sachs equity research analyst with 33 years of experience covering the full energy value chain. Murti discusses his Substack, SuperSpiked, explaining that the branding harkens back to the 2004 call for a super cycle, though the current framework emphasizes multi-year "super volatility" rather than a new permanent price state. The experts dive into the core short-term commodity debate, analyzing the divergence in demand forecasts between the "big three" agencies and critiquing the inconsistency between high oversupply forecasts and only short-term low price predictions. Murti firmly pushes back on the peak oil demand narrative, arguing that continued growth is illogical to deny given the massive unmet energy needs of billions globally. They explore how companies, particularly US-based EMPs, should lean into current market pessimism by prioritizing "fortress balance sheets," proactively managing costs, and protecting their returns on capital. This insightful conversation offers a differentiated, optimistic view of the sector, framing the present environment as a time for strategic risk-taking rather than capital destruction, supported by long-term belief in economic and energy growth

This episode of the Oil Ground Up, hosted by Rory Johnston, welcomes back Robert Connors of Crude Chronicles to delve into the broad historical sweep of oil market cycles. Connors explains his long-term analysis, introducing the "DOPE cycle" (Doubt, Optimism, Parabolic Euphoria), and suggests the current oil market finds itself in the early "doubt wave" phase. The discussion examines key market drivers, including Connors' thesis that rising marginal costs of non-OPEC production effectively set a higher floor for future oil prices. Furthermore, they analyze granular, higher-frequency labor data which indicates that the oil and gas labor market has "cracked" and is now "frozen," with non-farm payrolls having rolled over. Connors outlines his "oil bull in a glut full of bears" thesis, arguing that macro forces like populism and currency debasement, combined with falling non-OPEC productivity and corporate incentives focused on high returns, point toward higher prices over the long term. Listen to gain a deep historical perspective on how current OPEC management, non-OPEC supply dynamics, and structural industry changes are positioning the oil market for the next phase of the cycle.

In this episode of Oil Ground Up, host Rory sits down with June Goh, Senior Market Analyst at Sparta, for a masterclass on the physical oil market. With a background as a chemical engineer and years of experience in scheduling, trading, and strategy at Shell's Pulau Bukong refinery, June offers a uniquely nuanced and holistic understanding of how refineries operate and drive global commodity flows.June begins by demystifying commodity arbitrage, the pricing differences that physical and paper traders watch to make decisions. She explains how Sparta, a company founded "for traders, by traders," automates these complex, time-intensive calculations to provide real-time signals on whether trade routes are open or closed.June also unpacks the opaque Chinese oil market, explaining the surprising strength in demand driven by manufacturing, the government's focus on energy security through strategic stock-building, and the ongoing consolidation of its refining sector into "mega independent refineries". Finally, the episode looks ahead to India, a critical swing market where potential EU sanctions on products made from Russian oil could dramatically reshape global trade.OGU Listeners are now offered a special offer for Rory Johnston's Commodity Context Newsletter. Learn more about a subscription ⁠HERE⁠.

Today we speak with Dr. Ilia Bouchouev, former President of Koch Global Partners where he launched and managed the global derivatives trading business for over 20 years. Traditional supply and demand models no longer explain the oil market, where the correlation between fundamentals and price is now close to zero. Ilia leads Rory into a narrative about his "virtual barrel" thesis, exploring why the market now trades 60 times more oil on paper than is physically consumed daily. Ilia introduces a new paradigm for understanding price formation: modeling the "reaction function" of market participants to a host of factors beyond just fundamentals, such as macroeconomic data, flows, and even tweets. Discover the real "who's who" as Ilia debunks common misinterpretations of the Commitment of Traders report, revealing the blurred lines between hedgers and speculators.Learn about the different speculative players, from algorithmic CTAs to "quantamental" funds, and how "fast money" has proven to be the most profitable and volatile force driving short-term prices. The conversation also explores how professional traders analyze the complex futures curve, using carry trades and convexity to trade spreads rather than direction. Finally, understand the macro tug-of-war between traders using oil for recession hedging versus those using it to hedge against inflation, and gain a new framework for analyzing one of the world's most critical commoditiesOGU Listeners are now offered a special offer for Rory Johnston's Commodity Context Newsletter. Learn more about a subscription HERE.

ory dives deep into energy risk management with industry veteran Steve Sinos. Steve, with over 20 years of experience, explains how energy derivatives—from Futures and Options to CFDs—are crucial risk management tools designed to shift, not destroy, market risk. The episode frames this through the practical scenario of advising a regional airline on hedging its largest cost: fuel price exposure. Steve details the non-mechanical, iterative process of understanding controllable versus unknowable factors, emphasizing that effective risk management forces explicit trade-offs to achieve strategic goals. The discussion covers the diverse hedging approaches of airlines and E&P companies, focusing on product selection, instrument choice, and the critical challenge of basis risk. He shares insights on managing for quantifiable success over predicting "black swan" events, and the shift towards optimizing the "efficiency of a risk dollar" for specific cash flow targets. Listeners will also learn about interpreting complex market data like Commitment of Traders (COT) reports to avoid speculative biases and navigating unique market structures, such as the current "smiley curve" in crude futures. This episode underscores the risk manager's role as a "therapist," helping strategic leaders make informed decisions by understanding the sacrifices required to meet their objectives

Rory speaks with Bloomberg expert Brett Gibbs about the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and its profound impact across energy, agriculture, and gasoline prices. Brett highlights the market's policy-driven nature, contrasting stable ethanol volumes with the rapid, four-fold growth of renewable diesel, which now significantly displaces petroleum diesel. A key distinction is renewable diesel's chemical identity to petroleum diesel, allowing one-for-one substitution and no blend limits, unlike biodiesel. However, renewable diesel production remains uneconomic without crucial policy support like RFS RINs and tax credits, as feedstock costs (e.g., soybean oil at $4/gallon) vastly exceed petroleum diesel prices ($2.33/gallon). The conversation delves into the RFS's complex credit system and recent policy shifts favoring domestic feedstocks, such as the removal of indirect land use change penalties on US soybean oil, boosting its tax credit value. While roughly 50% of feedstocks are waste-based, scaling these is challenging, leading to reliance on virgin oils like soybean oil, which accounts for up to 50% of US soybean oil production now. Looking ahead, the US biofuel industry is expected to see a plateau in growth, with the administration aiming for stable 80% utilization to balance agricultural support with consumer fuel costs, while buying time for new technologies. Key indicators for tracking the market include the D4 RIN price and soybean oil prices

In this conversation, Brandon Myers from Novi Labs discusses the intricacies of shale production, focusing on type curves, price sensitivity, and the evolving landscape of the US shale patch. He emphasizes the importance of understanding breakeven metrics and the impact of inventory dynamics on future production. The discussion also highlights the role of efficiency gains and technological advancements in drilling, as well as the influence of external factors such as tariffs and regulatory changes on operational costs. Myers provides insights into the future of US shale, addressing common misconceptions and the importance of human expertise in the industry.

In this episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, host Rory Johnston delves into the complex dynamics of US-India trade relations, focusing on the recent imposition of secondary tariffs by President Trump in response to India's continued purchases of Russian oil. Joined by Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group, the discussion explores whether these tariffs are a strategic move in broader trade negotiations or a direct response to the India-Russia oil trade. Tune in to understand the implications of these tariffs on global oil markets and the geopolitical landscape. #USIndiaTrade #Tariffs #OilMarket

In this episode of "Oil Ground Up," host Rory Johnston delves into the dynamic landscape of the Western Canadian oil and gas sector with expert insights from Michael Spyker, Principal Analyst at HTM Energy Partners. The discussion navigates the complexities of the non-oil sands sector, focusing on the Montney and Duvernay plays, and explores the strategic implications of Strathcona's bid for MEG Energy. Tune in to understand the evolving trends, challenges, and opportunities within this pivotal industry. Don't miss this deep dive into the heart of Canada's energy frontier.

Rachel Ziemba, founder of Ziemba Insights and a geoeconomic expert, joins to discuss the complex world of sanctions and oil. She unpacks how the Trump administration’s strategies altered the global oil market, leading to the rise of a 'shadow fleet' moving oil from sanctioned nations like Russia and Venezuela. The conversation also covers the unintended consequences of sanctions on global power dynamics and Europe’s efforts to lessen its energy dependence on Russia. Join them for insights into the evolving landscape of economic statecraft and international relations.