Oil Ground Up

Rory Johnston speaks with Karim Fawaz, Director of Oil Markets and Refining at S&P Global Commodity Insights. They discuss the evolving dynamics of the oil market, particularly the geopolitical risk premium, spare capacity, and the changing demand landscape influenced by the US and China. Karim shares insights from his extensive experience in the oil market, highlighting how perceptions of risk have shifted over time and the implications of lower oil prices on supply risks and market behavior.

Rory and Matt Reed discuss the recent escalation of tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States, focusing on the military actions taken by Israel against Iranian targets and the implications for regional stability and the oil market. They explore the motivations behind Israel's strikes, the U.S. response, and the reactions from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The conversation also delves into the potential for de-escalation, the role of OPEC in the oil market, and the influence of Russia and China in the ongoing conflict. As the situation evolves, they highlight key indicators to watch for future developments in this complex geopolitical landscape.

This conversation delves into the critical role of tankers in the global oil market with shipping analyst Jeff McGee of Makai Marine. Him and Rory explore the importance in transporting crude and refined products using the tanker market. The discussion covers the various types of tankers, the role of ship brokers in chartering, and the dynamics of freight rates influenced by supply and demand. Additionally, the conversation highlights major trade routes and the significance of the Baltic Exchange in benchmarking freight rates, providing a comprehensive overview of the tanker market's complexities and challenges. In this conversation, Jeff discusses the complexities of the tanker market, focusing on the World Scale and Time Charter Equivalent metrics that help standardize freight rates. He explains how oil market dynamics, including geopolitical risks and bunker costs, influence tanker operations and freight rates. The discussion also delves into the concept of the 'dark fleet,' a shadow market that operates under different conditions than the mainstream tanker market, highlighting its inefficiencies and potential impacts on global shipping.

In this episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, host Rory speaks with Tamas Varga, a seasoned oil market analyst from PVM Oil Associates, about the current state of the oil market. They discuss the complexities of oil demand, particularly focusing on macroeconomic indicators, the impact of geopolitical tensions, and the evolving dynamics within OPEC. Tamas shares insights on the contradictory signals in the market, the role of Chinese demand, and the resilience of European oil consumption amidst various challenges. The conversation also delves into the intricacies of crude oil futures and the implications of OPEC's production strategies on global oil prices.

Mark Rossano connects with Rory and discusses the complexities of the oil and gas market, focusing on price volatility, OPEC's production strategies, and the geopolitical implications of Iran and Russia's oil exports. He emphasizes the importance of diesel in the economy and the impact of EU sanctions on global oil flows. The conversation provides insights into the current state of the energy sector and the challenges faced by major oil-producing countries. In this conversation, Mark Rossano discusses the dynamics of the crude market, the implications of tariffs on trade, and the current state of the refining industry. He highlights the challenges faced by Europe in energy procurement, the ongoing trade tensions between China and the US, and the impact of these factors on global supply chains. Rossano also delves into the intricacies of diesel and gasoline demand, emphasizing the need for refiners to adapt to changing market conditions.

OGU's new host, Rory Johnston, welcomes in Adi Imsirovic to delve into the complexities of the oil trading industry, exploring Adi's extensive background in both academia and commercial trading. They discuss the current challenges faced by OPEC, the impact of tariffs on oil demand, and the shifting dynamics of the energy market, particularly in light of the growing influence of electric vehicles. The conversation also touches on the supply-demand balance and long-term projections for oil demand, highlighting the uncertainties and volatility in the market. In this conversation, Adi discusses the future of oil demand, emphasizing that despite a predicted decline, the oil market will remain vibrant for the next two decades. He highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly between China and the US, on energy security and market dynamics. The discussion also delves into market structures, specifically the concepts of Contango and Backwardation, and their implications for traders. Adi expresses concerns about potential risks in the oil market, including the possibility of a price war initiated by Saudi Arabia. Finally, he shares insights on US production and rig counts, emphasizing the importance of efficiency in shale production.

In this episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, Dr. Robert E. Brooks discusses the evolution of the LNG market, the role of RBAC in energy modeling, and the current dynamics of global energy supply, particularly focusing on the relationship between the U.S. and China regarding LNG exports. Dr. Brooks highlights the significant changes in the LNG industry over the years, the impact of geopolitical factors, and the future outlook for LNG contracts amidst evolving market conditions. In this conversation, Robert E Brooks discusses the complexities of global shipping routes, particularly focusing on the Panama Canal and the Red Sea, and their implications for natural gas shipments. He provides insights into the current state of natural gas supply and demand, forecasting trends, and the impact of data centers on energy consumption. Brooks also addresses the risks and opportunities within the natural gas market, including geopolitical factors stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the evolving landscape of energy production and consumption in Europe.

Tony Greer interviews Brian Rainsborough and Chris Sembritzky from Renaissance Energy Africa about their exciting oil exploration efforts in Namibia. They discuss the significance of drilling one of the largest onshore wells in history, the geological challenges and potential of the region, and the economic viability of their operations. The conversation also covers the infrastructure in Namibia, market strategies for oil export, and the future prospects of expanding their operations into Angola. In this conversation, Brian and Chris discuss the unique opportunities and challenges in oil exploration in Namibia. They highlight the importance of community engagement, regulatory support, and innovative technical approaches in their exploration efforts. The conversation also covers the company's structure, financial insights, and future goals, emphasizing their commitment to making a positive impact in the regions they operate in.

In this episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, Patrick De Haan, Lead Petroleum Analyst at GasBuddy, discusses his career journey and the role of GasBuddy in tracking gas prices. He delves into the impact of energy policies on oil prices, the dynamics of OPEC's production decisions, and the forecast for future gas prices. The conversation also covers regional differences in gas prices across the U.S., the implications of refining capacity, and consumer behavior regarding gas purchases. Patrick emphasizes the importance of being aware of gas prices and the potential for savings through the GasBuddy app, while also touching on investment opportunities in the energy sector.

Josef Schachter, President of Schachter Energy Research Services, provides insights into the oil market and Canadian energy sector. He discusses the impact of US tariffs on Canadian oil, noting that the weakened Canadian dollar can offset some of the tariff's impact, and that the US Midwest relies on Canadian heavy crude due to quality issues with Mexican oil and restrictions on Venezuelan imports. Schachter expresses optimism about buying opportunities in Canadian energy stocks, suggesting the market is bottoming out and forecasting $90 oil within a year. He emphasizes the importance of LNG potential for both the US and Canada and identifies value in companies involved in natural gas production and transportation. Schachter also touches on the political landscape in Canada and its potential effects on the energy industry, and advocates for investors to take advantage of fear in the market to invest in undervalued energy companies.