The DOPE Cycle: Doubt, Optimism, and Oil Market History

This episode of the Oil Ground Up, hosted by Rory Johnston, welcomes back Robert Connors of Crude Chronicles to delve into the broad historical sweep of oil market cycles. Connors explains his long-term analysis, introducing the "DOPE cycle" (Doubt, Optimism, Parabolic Euphoria), and suggests the current oil market finds itself in the early "doubt wave" phase. The discussion examines key market drivers, including Connors' thesis that rising marginal costs of non-OPEC production effectively set a higher floor for future oil prices. Furthermore, they analyze granular, higher-frequency labor data which indicates that the oil and gas labor market has "cracked" and is now "frozen," with non-farm payrolls having rolled over. Connors outlines his "oil bull in a glut full of bears" thesis, arguing that macro forces like populism and currency debasement, combined with falling non-OPEC productivity and corporate incentives focused on high returns, point toward higher prices over the long term. Listen to gain a deep historical perspective on how current OPEC management, non-OPEC supply dynamics, and structural industry changes are positioning the oil market for the next phase of the cycle.