WEALTHTRACK

How strong and lasting is the current rebound we are seeing in the economy? What about the resurgence in inflation? Those are major debates raging on Wall Street right now.   This week’s WEALTHTRACK guest is looking beyond the current rebound and focusing on what he sees as massive problems which will act as drags on recovery.  Robert Kessler, Founder, and CEO of Kessler Investment Advisors, a manager of fixed-income portfolios with a specialty in U.S. treasuries. Even before COVID, Kessler has been warning about economic and stock market risk.   On the program this week, he will discuss why he believes those risks have been exacerbated and the market is in a danger zone.   WEALTHTRACK #1751 broadcast June 18, 2021 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/exclusive-with-robert-kessler-on-why-100-years-of-stock-market-history-are-signaling-danger/

The consensus for the economy is bullish. After a 6.4% annualized increase in real GDP, that’s without inflation, in the first quarter, recent forecasts are for 10% GDP growth in the second quarter, 7.5% in the 3rd, and 5% in the fourth.  As for inflation expectations, they are up. Again the consensus is that the combination of a rapidly rebounding economy, supply shortages, and tight labor market will lead to a sustained rise in prices.  The most prominent skeptic on that front is Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other Fed officials who believe the price increases we are seeing now are transitory.  This week’s guest, influential economist Dave Rosenberg is in the Powell camp on this one and believes the recent jump in inflation is temporary and that the overall bullishness on the economy and markets is wrong and will be challenged before the year ends.  Dave Rosenberg is the outspoken and often contrarian Chief Economist and Strategist at his independent economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research. I began the interview by asking Rosenberg why he is as convinced that the bullish consensus is wrong as he was when he went against the crowd at the height of the tech bubble in 2000 and the housing bubble in 2007. WEALTHTRACK #1750 broadcast on June 11, 2021 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/why-david-rosenberg-is-convinced-that-the-bullish-consensus-about-the-economy-and-markets-is-wrong/ For more detail about the evidence behind Dave Rosenberg’s convictions, he is generously sharing a recent comprehensive report, “No New Era” with us.  https://bit.ly/3io9XHu

Times they are a-changin'…  With COVID vaccinations becoming widespread, savings rates high, and consumers ready to spend, the economy is reopening and rebounding with gusto.  All of these developments are creating new opportunities and challenges for bond investors.  Bond prices fall when interest rates rise and vice versa. After a 40-year bull market in bonds, with interest rates declining to record lows, has the bottom finally been reached after many false starts? How real is this uptick in rates and what does it mean for bond investors?  Our guest on WEALTHTRACK this week is Mary Ellen Stanek, Chief Investment Officer of Baird Advisors, and President of the Baird Funds, where she heads up the Fixed Income Team overseeing $91 billion dollars worth of bond investments.  Stanek discusses the rapidly changing conditions and her team's all-weather bond strategy in what she calls uncharted waters. WEALTHTRACK Episode #1747 broadcast on May 21, 2021 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/new-opportunities-and-challenges-for-bond-investors-with-top-rated-bond-manager-mary-ellen-stanek/

“Jack be nimble Jack be quick” isn't a concept one usually associates with long-term value investors but sometimes extraordinary times call for exceptional responses. The first quarter of 2020 was one such event for this week’s guest.  Steven Romick, who has appeared on WEALTHTRACK since our launch in 2005 rarely does television interviews which is one of the many reasons we are delighted to have him with us this week. For those of you not familiar with him, he is Co-Portfolio Manager of the FPA Crescent Fund which he founded in 1993 and ran for many years before bringing on his current team. Since its inception this go anywhere, invest in anything balanced fund has delivered better than 10% annualized returns besting the stock market and its balanced portfolio benchmarks by substantial margins.  WEALTHTRACK #1746 broadcast on  May 14, 2021 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/great-investor-steven-romick-loaded-up-on-unloved-stocks-during-2020-sell-off-whats-his-plan-now/

There is a rule of thumb on Wall Street that when a fund knocks it out of the park in any given year or has an exceptional winning streak for a couple of years it is bound to fall to earth sooner rather than later and lag the market, its peers, or both for several years. It's called reversion to the mean. With few exceptions, this week’s guest has been in the winning streak category for a while. He is Michael Lippert, Head of Technology Research at Baron Capital and portfolio manager of the firm’s high-growth stock oriented Baron Opportunity Fund Morningstar’s one caveat about the fund’s performance has been its volatility, as it focuses entirely on companies with high rates of growth, not on the mitigating effects of returning capital to shareholders with stock buybacks or dividends. Volatility is a topic Lippert tackled in-depth in a recent quarterly letter to fund shareholders. I ask him to share his views with us. WEALTHTRACK #1745 broadcast on May 07,2021 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/?p=22536 “The Volatility of Stock Investor Returns” Ilia D. Dichev, Emory University, Xin Zheng, University of British Columbia, 1/22/2021 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3663350

The shift from COVID lockdown to COVID reopening has been stunning. Depending upon the stage of reopening economies around the world are rebounding. The markets’ response has been swift and dramatic particularly in the U.S. So what do you do if you are running a highly concentrated, large-cap growth fund? That is the challenge facing this week’s guest. Damon Ficklin is head of the Large Company Growth team at Polen Capital. In his first appearance on WEALTHTRACK I will begin with the basics. I will ask him to describe Polen’s high conviction, the low turnover strategy of focusing on the highest quality growth companies with margins of safety.  What does that actually mean? WEALTHTRACK #1544 broadcast on April 30, 2021 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/focusing-on-highest-quality-growth-companies-with-margins-of-safety-pays-off-at-polen-capital-2/

Beware the headline makers! According to Wall Street lore when a financial asset hits the front pages it can signal a turning point, either a recovery if negative, or a fall if positive. What’s making headlines today? Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency-related investments, including dogecoin, a meme-inspired cryptocurrency created as a joke in 2013. “This is absurd,” said Billy Markus, the co-creator of dogecoin. “I haven’t seen anything like it. It’s one of those things that once it starts going up, it might keep going up.”  Dogecoin however is not the real story. Bitcoin, the world’s first and largest digital currency is, as well as Ethereum, the second largest and the blockchain networks they support.  And there are other players emerging. Coinbase Global Inc, the largest market exchange for digital currencies went public on the Nasdaq this week and its $85 billion market value easily surpassed that of the Nasdaq itself and ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.  The cryptocurrency world has gone from fringe to close to the mainstream since our last conversation a year ago. Hougan will explain what’s driving the transformation, who the key players are, where the industry is going and the implications for investors.  There is no question that Bitcoin and Coinbase and a few other cryptocurrency-related investments have arrived. As we write this Bitcoin’s market value is over one trillion dollars.  On Wall Street money talks. Major firms including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock are now offering Bitcoin products to clients.  Our guest this week had the foresight and guts to get involved in ETFs in their early stages and more recently, in 2018 he threw his energy and career into cryptocurrencies believing they would become the next big, positive innovation for investors.    WEALTHTRACK #1743 originally broadcast on April 23, 2021 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/bitcoin-entrepreneur-matt-hougan-explains-why-cryptocurrencies-are-suddenly-going-mainstream/ Matt Hougan in April of 2020: https://wealthtrack.com/flows-into-etfs-and-long-term-returns-on-bitcoin-are-staggering-matt-hougan-is-an-expert-on-both/

Have you noticed how rampant speculation is? Random investors seem to be making money hand over fist in numerous assets: disruptive companies like Tesla, whose stock has soared 600% in the last 12 months. Old economy stocks like video retailer GameStop up nearly 6,000% propelled by traders on commission-free trading platforms like Robinhood.  These are not isolated events. The zeitgeist is becoming very bullish. Do you feel like you are missing out? Has the world moved on?  No, it has not according to this week’s guest. In part 2 of our interview with financial thought leader, Richard Bernstein he makes a compelling case for long-term fundamental investing.  Bernstein is Chief Executive and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors. Rich has also been a regular since WEALTHTRACK’s launch in 2005.  We’ve weathered our share of booms and busts over the years. He will discuss some time-tested strategies to invest successfully through both conditions.    WEALTHTRACK #1741 broadcast on April 9, 2021 More info and the “Boomer knows best” - RBA Insights, March 2021” available here: https://wealthtrack.com/time-tested-strategies-for-successful-investing-with-hall-of-fame-strategist-richard-bernstein/ Navigate the Noise: Investing in the New Age of Media and Hype: https://amzn.to/2Rrfm5f

We have been living through an extraordinary period. It was a year ago that COVID was recognized as a global pandemic and since then over 100 million people have been stricken and more than 2 million have died.  Economies were locked down causing severe recessions. Central banks and governments responded with unprecedented amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus. A worldwide effort by pharmaceutical companies to develop effective vaccines did so in record time. Millions are now in the process of being vaccinated. Global economies are now recovering with China and the U.S. recovering at a rapid pace.  Is the worst behind us? Are world economies and markets on a sustained path of recovery as many believe or are there serious hidden risks?  Risks are the concern of this week’s guest whose top priority as a money manager is capital preservation. He is Matthew McLennan, Head of the Global Value team at First Eagle Investment Managemen. Long before the pandemic, McLennan had been monitoring emerging geopolitical and financial risks globally, which he says were exacerbated by COVID. He’ll discuss specifics and how he is protecting his portfolios while still participating in aspects of the bull market. WEALTHTRACK #1740 broadcast on April 2, 2021 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/preparing-for-the-next-correction-while-participating-in-the-bull-market-with-matthew-mcclennan/

When a fringe economic theory goes mainstream and is actually implemented by policymakers you better pay attention. The once-fringe theory in question is called Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT for short.  The assumption behind MMT is that massive government spending helps the economy grow to its full potential, including full employment, and also finance major programs like universal healthcare, free college tuition, and green energy initiatives. Sound familiar?  What about the burgeoning federal debt? Not an issue according to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. In an interview on National Public Radio this week Powell   said: “Given the low level of interest rates, there’s no issue about the United States being able to service its debt at this time or in the foreseeable future.”  Enter today’s guest, Paul McCulley, who wrote an academic paperback in 2013 titled: “Helicopter Money, Or How I Stopped Worrying and Love Fiscal-Monetary Cooperation.”    McCulley is currently an adjunct professor at Georgetown business school where he teaches a very timely multi-disciplinary course combining law, economics, monetary policy, global finance, and behavioral finance.   I asked McCulley to explain why he believes helicopter money and the unprecedented fiscal and monetary cooperation we are seeing today is so essential, and not an issue.    WEALTHTRACK # 1739 broadcast on March 26, 2021 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/financial-though…ey-are-essential/ “Helicopter Money, Or How I Stopped Worrying and Love Fiscal-Monetary Cooperation” available https://www.interdependence.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Helicopter_Money_Final1.pdf