WEALTHTRACK

Worried about inflation, especially after October’s big consumer price number? The CPI’s 6.2% increase from a year ago was the fastest 12-month gain since 1990 and the fifth month in a row of +5% inflation.  What about rising interest rates? How about America’s economic standing in the world?    Be prepared to question many of the negative assumptions you have been hearing and listen to some other data that shines a different light on the outlook. Our guest is a highly respected economist who is no pollyanna. She is just a top economist who looks at data many others miss.   Nancy Lazar is Partner and Chief Economist of Cornerstone Macro.  Lazar and her team are challenging the assumptions that higher inflation is here to stay, that interest rates have to go higher and that emerging markets will be the driver of global growth post-pandemic.    I began our conversation with the capital spending question. In a traditionally consumer-driven economy, why is capital spending going to play such an outsized role?  WEALTHTRACK #1820 broadcast on 11-12-21 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/u-s-manufacturing-resurgence/

The demand for socially responsible investing strategies is growing and the cash flowing into them shows it. Exchange-traded funds with ESG characteristics - ESG of course stands for environmental, social, and governance - have attracted the lion's share of equity money in recent years.  In true “follow the money” form, Wall Street has taken notice. There are now many different kinds of socially responsible investment products to choose from. One you don’t hear a lot about is values and faith-based investing, a niche that has been around for decades through separately managed accounts and a few mutual funds.  This week’s guest just might change their low profile. He is a widely followed market strategist and successful investor, Robert Doll, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Crossmark Global Investments which he just joined this year.   Doll will fulfill two missions for us. He’ll explain what values and faith-based investing means and update us on his current assessment of the markets and recommended investment strategies.      WEALTHTRACK #1819 broadcast on November 05, 2021 More Info: http://wealthtrack.com/values-and-faith-based-investing-with-veteran-strategist-bob-doll/

There's a saying on Wall Street that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.  And there’s a widely held financial theory called “Reversion to the Mean” that asserts that eventually asset classes will return to their long term average in terms of several factors including price, price/earnings multiples, and their performance relative to other asset classes like U.S. stocks. Reversion to the mean for emerging markets stocks has been a long time coming. This week’s guest, Michael Kass who runs Baron Emerging Markets Fund believes their time has come after a very long cycle of underperformance. Kass will make the case for an emerging markets resurgence, especially stocks in the two largest markets, China and India. WEALTHTRACK #1818 broadcast on October 29, 2021 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/new-world-order-of-market-leadership/

Talk about a seismic shift! Inflation is back with a vengeance.  Higher prices are being felt throughout the economy by consumers and businesses alike.  The Consumer Price Index, the most widely followed measure of price moves at the retail level, has just experienced its biggest year-over-year increase since the early 1990s.  Are these price increases transitory as the Federal Reserve would lead us to believe or are we in a new era of higher prices not seen since the late 1970s?  This week’s guest penned an editorial in The Wall Street Journal recently asking the question: “Does the Fed Have the Will to Fight Inflation?” He is Financial Thought Leader Jason De Sena Trennert,  Co-Founder,  Chairman, CEO, and Chief Investment Strategist of Strategas Research Partners,   Trennert will address the investment and strategy implications of higher inflation.   WEALTHTRACK #1817 broadcast on October 22, 2021 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/financial-thought-leader-jason-trennert-on-the-financial-risks-of-higher-inflation-interest-rates/ WSJ Editorial: https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-reserve-inflation-reduce-monetary-policy-price-stability-11633291208

The one constant in life is change, even for great investors. Earlier this year The Motley Fool Co-Founder, David Gardner announced that he was changing his focus. As he told fellow “Fools” as the global online investing community members jokingly refer to themselves:  “....where you place your focus in life matters, and now I am choosing to shift my focus from the stock market and invest time in other endeavors. After nearly 30 years focused on publicly picking stocks, this wasn’t a decision I took lightly.” It wasn't a decision The Motley Fool team, members, followers and at least one member of the financial press, namely me, took lightly either, which is why I wanted to talk to David.   The good news is Gardner is not totally leaving the fold. He is Chairman of The Motley Fool Foundation, devoted to bringing “financial freedom to all.” He remains Co-Chairman of The Motley Fool with fellow Fool Co-Founder and younger brother Tom, a very successful investor in his own right, who has also been managing and growing the business as CEO.  David Gardner will continue as Chief Rule Breaker “for life” he expects, and he will continue his weekly podcast, “Rule Breaker Investing,” in which every ten weeks he recommends what he calls a 5-stock sampler theme, culled from The Motley Fool’s Stock Advisor and Rule Breakers picks.  I asked Gardner to take us through his Rule Breakers rules. What are the lessons he’s learned from three decades of active investing?      WEALTHTRACK #1816 broadcast on October 15, 2021 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/3-decades-of-investment-lessons-learned-from-the-motley-fools-chief-rule-breaker-david-gardner/

It can take a long time for a bubble to burst. Four years ago, in 2017, Grant's Interest Rate Observer, a highly regarded financial newsletter, wrote an article about the now infamous China Evergrande group. Back then, it was anything but a familiar name except in China and among some institutional investors. The article was titled “Ever Higher” as Grant published a chart showing the extraordinary rise in China Evergrande's stock price on the Hong Kong exchange that spring. Fast forward to 2021, and indeed, Evergrande, once the world’s most valuable property stock, has become famous as the world’s most heavily indebted property company. With an estimated $300 billion in debt, it also could become Asia's largest bankruptcy as China's government seems less and less likely to come to the rescue. Why should the U.S. investors care? What if any significance does it have outside of China? That is where financial thought leader, journalist/sleuth, and historian James Grant comes in. Grant is the Founder and Editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, a twice-monthly journal about all interest-sensitive investments which pretty much covers the waterfront. It is considered a must-read by professional investors, including at leading hedge funds, private equity, and investment firms. I started the discussion with Evergrande: why it warranted Grant’s readers’ attention back in 2017 and what it represents now. WEALTHTRACK #1814 broadcast on October 01, 2021 More Info: http://wealthtrack.com/beyond-evergrandes-fall-its-far-reaching-impact-with-influential-journalist-historian-james-grant/ Bookshelf: Money of the Mind: Borrowing and Lending in America from the Civil War to Michael Milken https://amzn.to/3AZV2th John Adams: Party of One https://amzn.to/3ip3hb9 Bagehot: The Life and Times of the Greatest Victorian https://amzn.to/3ASPReN

Large-cap U.S growth stocks, particularly tech stocks, have been the overwhelming winners of the last decade. They now dominate the market. The top ten S&P 500 stocks, including the FAANGs, account for more than 25% of the index’s total market value, a concentration that worries some market watchers because it is reminiscent of other market tops such as the dot-com bubble when internet stocks made up over 30% of the S&P and the credit bubble when banking stocks reached more than 20%. With the exception of short-lived spurts value stocks, small-cap stocks and international stocks have badly lagged. This week’s guest believes the days of this concentrated outperformance by large-cap growth stocks are numbered and suggests some underloved and under-owned alternatives. He is financial thought leader, innovator, and investor Robert Arnott, Chairman of the Board of Research Affiliates, which he founded in 2002 as a self-described “research-intensive asset management firm that focuses on innovative products.” Among the innovations that he has pioneered is fundamental indexation: building indexes with stocks based on the size of their fundamentals, such as sales, profits, cash flow, book value, and dividends - not their stock price. Research Affiliates has created numerous fundamental indexes for a wide variety of markets and asset classes around the world. Arnott will discuss why he believes this long era of U.S. large-cap growth dominance could be coming to an end and what could take its place. WEALTHTRACK #1811 broadcast on September 10, 2021 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/financial-thought-leader-rob-arnott-likes-buying-cheap-assets-where-he-is-finding-them-now/ AGAINST THE GODS: THE REMARKABLE STORY OF RISK by Peter Bernstein https://amzn.to/3BURwjX

One of the biggest challenges for investors since the global financial crisis has been finding income. Despite more than ten years of continuous predictions that yields on U.S. Treasuries and other developed country bonds couldn’t possibly go any lower, they have. This week’s guest can help us. She is Kristin Ceva, Senior Portfolio Manager, directing Payden & Rygel’s nearly $14bn emerging debt strategies. She is also a member of the firm’s Investment Policy Committee. The independent global investment advisor oversees $145.5bn in assets, largely in fixed income for institutional clients but has a broad lineup of mutual funds as well. It is also an active participant in ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance)  investing which we will discuss. Ceva has managed its Payden Emerging Markets Bond Fund since 1998. Emerging market (EM) debt is a large, diverse, and evolving investing universe which is sorely underrepresented in most individual portfolios. I’ll begin the interview by asking Ceva to bring us up to speed on the state of the EM fixed-income markets and what investors need to know about the opportunities it presents. WEALTHTRACK #1810 broadcast on September 03, 2021 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/emerging-markets-bonds-offer-improving-credits-higher-yields-and-diverse-esg-opportunities/ A History of Interest Rates: https://amzn.to/3kPTj2V

In this era of indexing the investors who research and buy individual companies are becoming a rarity - some would say a throwback - to another era.   The most obvious example is Warren Buffett, the nonagenarian Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway who is widely considered to be one of the greatest, if not the greatest American investor in recent memory.  Buffett is famous for buying quality companies for the long term, in his words “forever”. He is less well known for his emphasis on seeking “high quality shareholders”, stock owners who stick around for the long-term, whom he has succeeded in attracting to Berkshire Hathaway.  This is part two of our interview with Lawrence Cunningham a Professor of Law at George Washington University who is also a driving force behind the university’s “Quality Shareholders Initiative”, intended to research and report on “high quality shareholders”, as they are dubbed by Buffett - traditional investors that study individual companies, acquire substantial stakes in only a few and hold them for the long-term. The theme of this week’s discussion with Cunningham is quality in companies and shareholders and why a combination of the two often leads to better investment results.    WEALTHTRACK #1809 broadcast on August 27, 2021. More info: https://wealthtrack.com/quality-investing-shareholders-why-warren-buffet-believes-they-produce-better-investment-results/ “Quality Shareholders: How the Best Managers Attract and Keep Them”: https://amzn.to/38gshMr

In this week's WEALTHTRACK podcast, an interview with leading financial journalist Jason Zweig.  Since 2008 Zweig has written the widely read "The Intelligent Investor" column for The Wall Street Journal.  That, of course, is the name of the investment classic written by Benjamin Graham, considered to be the father of value investing.  Zweig has an intimate knowledge of the thinking of Graham because he edited the last revised edition of The Intelligent Investor with a forward written by Warren Buffett who calls it "by far the best book on investing ever written". Zweig explains the enormous impact Benjamin Graham had on investing and why we should listen to him now.   WEALTHTRACK #1808 published on August 22, 2021