WEALTHTRACK

Blast off! Stock markets are setting records, with tech stocks leading the charge once again. “Don’t fight the Fed” should now encompass “don’t fight the Treasury, fiscal stimulus, vaccinations and investor demand for ‘real’ (after inflation) returns.” The Wall Street Journal reports that the “S&P 500 rose 14.3% from Election Day through Inauguration Day, its best performance on record for that period.” (The Wall Street Journal “Stocks Climb To Records, Led By Tech Sector” 1/21/21)    In retrospect, 2020 was an entire year for the record books:  - A once in a century global pandemic; - Unprecedented, massive monetary and fiscal stimulus; - A brief deep recession and the shortest bear market in U.S. history; - A record-breaking stock market rally; - The continuation of near record-low interest rates - And the election of a new president with a very different policy agenda.  Portfolio rebalancing is just one of the actions on Christine Benz’ financial to-do list this year. In part 2 of our interview with Morningstar's Director of Personal Finance, she helps us get in personal financial shape for the year ahead.   WEALTHTRACK #1730 broadcast on January 22, 2021 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/2021s-financial-to-do-list-with-morningstars-personal-finance-guru-christine-benz/ Books mentioned in  the episode: 30-Minute Money Solutions: A Step-by-Step Guide to Managing Your Finances: https://amzn.to/3ig0cZE Morningstar Guide to Mutual Funds: Five-Star Strategies for Success: https://amzn.to/3ifVVp8

COVID-19 has affected just about every aspect of our professional and personal lives, including the state of our finances. Whether you or a loved one are among the more than 20 million Americans who lost their jobs in the spring of 2020 in the depths of the lockdowns, or one of the millions of Americans who saw their retirement portfolios plunge in the shortest bear market on record in February and March, (and if you stayed invested have benefitted from the markets rebound), or if you or a loved one are among the 20 million Americans who have been stricken by COVID your finances have been affected. Financial services firm Morningstar has also been paying attention. In a recent article, “What the Coronavirus Means for the Future of Financial Planning,” its Director of Personal Finance, Christine Benz addressed the issue and we have asked her to enlighten us. WEALTHTRACK # 1729 broadcast on January 15, 2021 More info: Books mentioned in  the episode: https://wealthtrack.com/the-pandemic-era-requires-rethinking-financial-plans-says-personal-finance-guru-christine-benz/ 30-Minute Money Solutions: A Step-by-Step Guide to Managing Your Finances : https://amzn.to/3ig0cZE Morningstar Guide to Mutual Funds: Five-Star Strategies for Success: https://amzn.to/3ifVVp8

We have a special treat for you. Robert Shiller, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, a pioneer in the field of behavioral finance, long-time Yale professor, financial innovator, and prolific author. Shiller is also the co-creator of the widely cited gauge of U.S. housing prices, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, and creator of the cyclically adjusted PE ratio known as the Cape Ratio which is a price-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous ten years. Because it includes ten years of earnings many consider it to be a more reliable gauge of market value. His presence could not be more timely. He is known for identifying the tech and housing bubbles long before anyone else did, and here we are in the midst of an economy crushing pandemic with home prices booming and stock prices hitting new records.  We started with the stock market, his analysis of the record-setting performance. WEALTHTRACK # 1728 broadcast on January 08,2021 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/nobel-laureate-economist-robert-shiller-explains-the-narratives-driving-stock-and-real-estate-prices/ Links to Books mentioned: Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events:  https://amzn.to/3byPtbJ Irrational Exuberance: https://amzn.to/38wq9RL Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism: https://amzn.to/2JWdGNu

This week, in part 2 he will share his fifty years of economic perspective on the extraordinary events of 2020 and how the pandemic has changed the economy and markets. It will be a fascinating conversation with one of the best business cycle analysts of our era.      Every year at around this time we sit down for an in-depth interview with legendary economist Ed Hyman.  Hyman has been voted Wall Street’s number one economist in Institutional Investor magazine’s prestigious annual survey of institutional investors for an unprecedented forty years.     WEALTHTRACK #1726 originally broadcast on December 18, 2020 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/covids-extraordinary-economic-impact-from-wall-streets-1-economist-ed-hyman/ Part 1: https://wealthtrack.com/ed-hyman-expects-record-monetary-stimulus-plus-vaccines-will-speed-up-economic-growth-in-2021/ Suggested Reading:  CREATORS: FROM CHAUCER TO WALT DISNEY, by Paul Johnson  https://amzn.to/3r9NvDU

It's an annual tradition on WEALTHTRACK to sit down for a rare in-depth interview with Ed Hyman, Wall Street’s number one-ranked economist for an unrivaled forty years!  Hyman is a Wall Street legend. His ability to gather reams of economic data, including proprietary information from many sources including his weekly company surveys of industries ranging from retailers to restaurants, to homebuilders, truckers, and even Christmas tree vendors gives him an ability to take the current pulse of the many players in our huge and diverse economy.   This year we have even more to discuss than usual. We have extended our conversation into an exclusive two-part series. This week Hyman will share his outlook for the economy in 2021. He’ll explain why he expects a “blowout” in the second half but also why there are considerable challenges to get from here to there. Next week we’ll get his perspective on the extraordinary events of 2020 and what he learned from the experience.  This week we start with the present: the state of the economy and the markets now.  I asked him to bring us up to speed on the economy’s rebound from its freefall in the spring.  How solid is the recovery?  More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/ed-hyman-expects-record-monetary-stimulus-plus-vaccines-will-speed-up-economic-growth-in-2021/

According to Medicare benefits expert, Dr. Katy Votava COVID-19 has altered several aspects of Medicare coverage and procedures. She will tell us what’s different and how to take advantage of the changes. She will also help us meet the deadline for Medicare’s annual enrollment period which ends on December 7th and allows medicare beneficiaries to evaluate their Medicare Advantage Plans and part D, prescription drug plans, and shift to different providers if it makes sense.  Votava is a Medicare expert who advises individuals, small businesses, and financial planners from her healthcare consulting business, GOODCARE.com. She is also the author of Making The Most Of Medicare: A Guide For Baby Boomers, now in its 7th edition and an Amazon bestseller. It is a straightforward, easy to navigate guide to Medicare which is a very complex multi-part system that frequently does warrant annual updating by its beneficiaries. An estimated 90 percent of Americans pay too much for their Medicare coverage.  WEALTHTRACK # 1722 published on November 27, 2020 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/how-covid-19-has-changed-medicare-coverage-and-procedures-with-benefits-expert-katy-votava/ Medicare.gov – The official U.S. Government site for Medicare 1-800-MEDICARE Shiptacenter.org – The State Health Insurance Assistance Program (SHIP) site that directs consumers to free Medicare counseling and assistance Eldercare.acl.gov - Eldercare locator, a public service of the U.S. Administration of Aging, connecting you to services for older adults and their families. 1-800-677-1116    Making The Most Of Medicare: A Guide For Baby Boomers: https://amzn.to/33mW4Rs

Can investing be simple? Can we stop worrying about what’s happening on Wall Street, in Washington, with Fed policy, inflation, corporate earnings, and numerous other headline-making concerns? Can we just get on with our lives and still invest successfully?  According to this week’s guest, the answer is yes, and we shouldn’t even care what the market is doing.   What should we care about? How should we invest? That is the focus of this week’s exclusive WEALTHTRACK interview.   Our guest is Charles Ellis, the author of the investment classic WINNING THE LOSER’S GAME, available now in its 2017 7th edition. Ellis is the author of 16 other books including the recently published 10th-anniversary edition of THE ELEMENTS OF INVESTING, co-written with his good friend, Princeton economics professor Burton Malkiel.    Ellis is a globally recognized financial thought leader, investment consultant, and advisor to governments, institutions, and endowments. He also cares deeply about helping investors succeed, as he puts it “winning the loser’s game.” He will help us do that this week.  WEALTHTRACK #1721 broadcast on November 20, 2020 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/timeless-strategies-for-successful-investing-from-legendary-investment-consultant-charles-ellis/ WINNING THE LOSER’S GAME (2017 edition): https://amzn.to/379ODOP THE ELEMENTS OF INVESTING: https://amzn.to/2UL96Dz

It’s been a roller coaster of emotions for investors this week.  Our focus is China. China of course is where COVID-19 originated in late 2019. It felt the impact first. It shut down vast swathes of its economy in response and it is now coming out of it, first.  All indications are that the world’s second-largest economy, by some measures occasionally the largest, is making a comeback. It looks like an impressive one.   The International Monetary Fund is predicting China’s economy will expand 1.9% this year, and estimates it will be the only major world economy to show any growth. This week’s guest says that China’s economy is well on its way back to normal and that there are multiple opportunities for investors in the world’s second-largest stock market.   Robert Horrocks, Ph.D. and Chief Investment Officer of Matthews Asia on how back to normal is China? We will find out.   WEALTHTRACK #1720 broadcast on November 13, 2020 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/chinas-economic-comeback-flourishing-a-share-markets-offer-specific-investment-opportunities/ IMF: China’s economy will expand by 1.9% this year: https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/CHN

What a week! The widely predicted blue wave of Democrats sweeping into the White House, taking over the Senate majority, and increasing their dominance in Congress has failed to materialize.  As far as the stock market is concerned, a divided government is a plus because not a lot will change in the way of tax policy and regulations.  Investor optimism is not shared by Federal Reserve officials who expressed ongoing concern about the economy and the recent uptick in COVID-19 cases in today’s Federal Open Market Committee policy announcement.  “The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Economic activity and employment have continued to recover but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year... “ “The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. The ongoing public health crisis will continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.” Ongoing Fed stimulus is another reason Wall Street is bullish.  At WEALTHTRACK we realize that we do not invest in a vacuum. What is happening in the world around us affects the markets and companies we invest in, which is why macro matters. This week, in part 2 of our interview with financial thought leader, Jason Trennert we are going to identify some of the biggest trends that have been forming around us and are gaining momentum.  Massive stimulus, big government, low-interest rates are three of the megatrends moving markets. Jason Trennert lists their winners and losers.     WEALTHTRACK #1719 broadcast on November 06, 2020 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/leading-strategist-jason-trennert-identifies-the-powerful-long-term-macro-trends-driving-the-markets/ Federal Open Market Committee policy announcement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20201105a.htm

One of the most striking financial characteristics of the pandemic experience has been the seeming disconnect between the economy and the stock market. The economy was severely damaged by the lockdown of business and sheltering in place policies put in effect earlier this year, but until this week the market has been rising with more stocks  The unemployment rate which had fallen to 3.5% last year, the lowest level since 1969, skyrocketed with the lockdowns, reaching 14.7% in April, a level not seen since the Great Depression. Since then it’s fallen, to a still elevated 7.9 % in September, the last report before the election.  How sound are the economy and markets going into the election? What could change? Joining us with some answers this week will be financial thought leader, Jason Trennert. Trennert is co-founder, Chairman, CEO, and Chief Investment Strategist of Strategas, He says the wide policy differences between Biden and Trump call for different portfolio strategies post-election.  WEALTHTRACK #1718 broadcast on October 30, 2020 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/election-portfolio-strategy-trennert-part-1/